The Stage-0 allowlist (120 series, 115 with open markets) yields 869 open markets, of which only 6 survive the mechanical cuts inside the 45-day horizon (close ≤ Nov 13; vol24 ≥ 500; spread ≤ 5¢; 5¢ < YES < 95¢; ≥ 7 days to expiry). Of those six, one produces an Anchor-shaped NO pick in the core band: NO on “Anthropic confirms IPO before Nov 1” at 80¢. Two are deep favorites (NO ≥ 90¢: Patel out by Nov 1, Iran deal by Nov 1), two are the Bank of Canada October ladder (a directional macro call — below band on NO, yes-side thesis on the hold leg), and one (diesel export ban) has no NO edge because my own probability sits above the book. Cash is the position for 92.6% of capital, which is the expected Anchor outcome in an efficient week.
Disclosure. The analyst model is built by Anthropic. The pick concerns the timing of Anthropic's IPO. The thesis uses only public sources named below (EDGAR, Reuters/CNBC, WSJ via secondary coverage, Fortune, Polymarket, Kalshi precedents); the model has no non-public information about the offering (training cutoff June 2026 predates every fact used). Readers should weigh that optic themselves.
YES condition: For YES to pay, the SEC must declare Anthropic's Form S-1 effective, or the IPO must be priced, or a securities exchange must assign it a ticker, before Nov 1 2026 04:59Z (Oct 31 midnight ET), resolved by Kalshi from SEC/exchange records (rules_secondary, verbatim: “An IPO is confirmed if 1) the SEC declares the company's Form S-1 effective OR 2) the IPO is priced OR 3) a securities exchange has assigned a ticker to it”).
Thesis. No vehicle: no public S-1 exists on EDGAR as of Sep 29, so the mandatory 15-day pre-roadshow clock has not started; Reuters (Sep 19, restated Sep 28) has the debut slipping past the Nov 3 midterms; today's 6¢→20¢ jump is the prospectus LEAK, which is not a resolution event.
Probability: 11% pre-market → 10% final (YES). NO fair value 90¢ vs 80¢ offered → edge 10¢, EV +12.5% on cost.
Vehicle / calendar / already-happened checks.
Market context (opened after the pre-market number). NOV01 traded 53–56¢ Sep 15–17, collapsed to 5–8¢ on Sep 18 (37k contracts) on the post-midterms reporting, sat 4–7¢ Sep 20–28, then jumped 6¢ → 35¢ intraday today (Sep 29, 11.3k contracts) on the prospectus-leak headlines, settling 20/21. Polymarket at the same time: “Anthropic IPO by Oct 31” 4.5%, “IPO in October” 3.9%, “by Nov 15” 35%, “in November” 61.5% (24h volume $24k / $2k / $12k / $7k). Kalshi's DEC01 rung is 56/70 and JAN01 76/77, consistent with a November pricing. The precedent store documents this exact pattern twice (Jun 2 confidential-filing headline; Sep 13 Nasdaq-venue headline): “filing-adjacent headline residue” that decays because it changes nothing in the rulebook triggers.
Resolver profile. Resolver: Kalshi, mechanical three-trigger definition. Precedents: KXIPOANTHROPIC JUN01 and JUL01 both settled NO after the confidential filing (“'filed' and 'confirmed' are separated by months of process”); KXIPO SpaceX settled on the Jun 11 pricing, not the May 20 public S-1 with proposed symbol (“a proposed symbol in a public S-1 is not 'a securities exchange has assigned a ticker'”). Risk priced: −3 pts for an aggressive “ticker assigned” reading if Nasdaq formally approves the listing before pricing. No clarification in rules_secondary cuts against NO.
Cleanest tail (new discrete event required): Anthropic publicly files on EDGAR this week and launches an accelerated roadshow to price Oct 27–30, ahead of the midterms — a reversal of the reported slippage, not its continuation. Priced at ~10%. Continuation of the current trend (further slippage) favors NO.
Precedents consulted: KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26JUN01 (no), KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26JUL01 (no), KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26SEP01 (edge note re: Kalshi/Polymarket parity, “only a dated S-1 public flip or a roadshow launch changes it”), KXIPO-26-SPACEX (settled on pricing, Jun 15).
Sources: EDGAR FTS (efts.sec.gov, S-1/S-1A/DRS Jun 1–Sep 29) · EDGAR current S-1 feed (Sep 25–29) · Reuters via Yahoo Finance, Sep 29 (“seen by Reuters… likely to be pushed to after the November US midterm elections, Reuters previously reported”) · CNBC Sep 29 (Reuters) · Fortune Sep 29 (“leaked to Reuters”) · GuruFocus Sep 21 summarizing Reuters Sep 19 · Motley Fool Sep 26 (October → November) · CNBC Sep 5 (Reuters: public S-1 late Sep, marketing mid-Oct earliest) · Polymarket gamma API, Sep 29 16:45Z · Kalshi public API market/orderbook/candlesticks, Sep 29 16:40Z.
| Ticker | Side | Limit | Contracts | Cost (= max loss) | % of capital | Depth at/below limit | Depth cap (1/3) | Conviction cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26NOV01 | NO | 80¢ | 230 | $184 | 7.4% | 690 (YES bids at 20¢) | 230 | $250 (10%, MEDIUM) |
Flat sizing: 10% of capital max per pick regardless of conviction; the depth cap binds (690 resting YES bids at 20¢ → 230 contracts). Slippage 0¢ at an 80¢ limit; a 81¢ limit would add 1,000 contracts of depth but is not needed. Reserve held: $2,316 (92.6%).
| Ticker | Side | Price | Model P(YES) | Model P(side) | Edge | EV/contract | EV % of cost | Max win | Max loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26NOV01 | NO | 80¢ | 10% | 90% | +10¢ | +10.0¢ | +12.5% | $46 | $184 |
| Cluster | Deployed leg | Runner-ups / same-cluster rejects |
|---|---|---|
| anthropic-ipo-timing | KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26NOV01 NO | OCT24 (spread >5¢, deep-favorite), OCT17, OCT10 (ask ≤5¢) |
| diesel-export-ban | — | KXDIESELEXPORTBAN-26 (inside spread) |
| patel-fbi-exit | — | NOV01 (deep-favorite band), OCT01 (inside 7d) |
| iran-nuclear-deal | — | NOV (deep-favorite band), OCT (inside 7d) |
| boc-oct-decision | — | H25 NO (below band), H0 YES (yes-side thesis) |
| hegseth-exit / zelenskyy-exit / mcconnell-resign / agi-announce | — | Stage-0 cuts (inside 7d or ask ≤5¢) |
| Ticker | Side | Price (side) | P(YES) | Cluster | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXDIESELEXPORTBAN-26 | NO | 83¢ | 25% | diesel-export-ban | inside spread: model 25% YES (Politico Sep 23: 90-day ban plan being prepared; Trump Sep 27 'very seriously… we might do it'; diesel at a record $6.50) sits ABOVE the 17–21¢ book, so NO at 83¢ has no edge; the rulebook never defines 'ban' vs partial restrictions (Wright: 'blanket ban not being considered'), a live resolver risk; book is headline-driven (78¢ intraday Sep 23). |
| KXKASHOUT-26JUL-26NOV01 | NO | 93¢ | 5% | patel-fbi-exit | deep-favorite band: NO costs 91–93¢ (YES 7/9); status-quo thesis is sound (deputy Bailey left Sep 28, contentious Senate hearing, but no vacancy signal — KXKASHOUT precedents: nothing short of an actual vacancy pays) yet max win ≤9% and the 90¢+ cohort showed no edge. |
| KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26NOV | NO | 96¢ | 4% | iran-nuclear-deal | deep-favorite band: NO costs 94–96¢; The National (Sep 29) has only quiet indirect talks in New York with 'breakthrough elusive' and no draft text, and the 06/17/26 clarification requires a written instrument with concrete nuclear limits AND sanctions relief — but ≤6% max win is outside the Anchor band. |
| KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H25 | NO | 59¢ | 45% | boc-oct-decision | below band: NO costs 58–59¢ (<60¢) and the thesis is a directional macro call (markets 'coin flip, narrowly favour a hike' per Globe and Mail Sep 18; RBC/Desjardins/Capital Economics expect a hold, National Bank/Scotiabank a hike) — no coin-flip lane in Anchor. |
| KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H0 | YES | 62¢ | 54% | boc-oct-decision | yes-side thesis: the Oct 28 meeting is on the published calendar, but the question is the DIRECTION of the decision (a macro threshold call), not whether a process step completes — neither already-happened nor process-in-motion applies; NO on this leg would cost 38–39¢ (below band). |
| KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT24 | NO | 97¢ | 3% | anthropic-ipo-timing | cluster runner-up: same no-vehicle thesis as the NOV01 leg but 3/25¢ book (spread >5¢, Stage-0 cut) and NO ≥90¢ (deep-favorite band). |
| KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT17 | NO | 98¢ | 1% | anthropic-ipo-timing | deep-favorite band / YES ask ≤5¢ (Stage-0 cut); calendar-impossible given the 15-day flip rule, but nothing left to earn. |
| KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT10 | NO | 99¢ | 1% | anthropic-ipo-timing | deep-favorite band / YES ask ≤5¢ (Stage-0 cut). |
| KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26OCT | NO | 100¢ | 1% | iran-nuclear-deal | inside 7d and YES ask ≤1¢ (Stage-0 cut). |
| KXKASHOUT-26JUL-26OCT01 | NO | 100¢ | 1% | patel-fbi-exit | inside 7d and YES ask ≤2¢ (Stage-0 cut). |
| KXHEGSETHOUT-26AUG-26OCT01 | NO | 100¢ | 1% | hegseth-exit | inside 7d (expires in 1.9 days) and YES ask ≤1¢ (Stage-0 cut). |
| KXZELENSKYYOUT-26OCT01 | NO | 100¢ | 1% | zelenskyy-exit | inside 7d (expires in 1.9 days) and YES ask ≤3¢ (Stage-0 cut). |
| KXRETIREMM-26 | NO | 97¢ | 2% | mcconnell-resign | deep-favorite band / YES ask ≤5¢ (3.0/3.3¢; Stage-0 cut) despite 17.8k vol24. |
| KXAGICO-COMP-26Q3 | NO | 99¢ | 1% | agi-announce | inside 7d and YES ask ≤2¢ (Stage-0 cut). |
Existing live pick KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE-26JAN-OCT (NO) is outside the allowlisted series and was not re-researched. Stage-0 cut 863 markets: 830 close beyond the 45-day horizon or trade < 500 contracts/24h; the remaining 33 within-horizon cuts were YES ask ≤ 5¢, spread > 5¢ or inside-7d and the material ones are logged above.
YES condition: a US ban on diesel exports must have gone into effect after issuance and before Nov 3, as reported by a listed Source Agency. Vehicle: Politico (Sep 23) — administration preparing a 90-day export-ban plan; Axios (Sep 22) — Trump backs a ban; Trump (Sep 27, Fox): “We're seriously thinking about it… We might do it.” Counter: Energy Secretary Wright (Sep 23–24) — a blanket ban is not being considered, voluntary adjustments preferred; API, Chamber/Business Roundtable letter (Sep 24) opposed. Calendar: EPCA short-supply authority can take effect within days, so nothing rules YES out. Price path: 21¢ → 78¢ intraday Sep 23 (36.6k) → 12¢ Sep 26 → 22¢ Sep 28 → 17/21 now. My 25% is above the book; a NO at 83¢ has negative expectancy. Resolver risk: “ban” undefined against a likely partial/licensed restriction. Precedents for this series: none (KXTARIFFCHECKS lessons on 'reported-fact' gates noted).
YES condition: Patel must vacate the FBI Director role before Nov 1 (actual departure date, not announced intent). News: deputy director Andrew Bailey out Sep 28 (Axios); contentious Senate oversight hearing; NBC on reduced briefings. No vacancy vehicle. Precedents (KXKASHOUT JUN01/JUL01, both NO): far rungs systematically overpriced; only an actual vacancy pays. Right thesis, wrong band.
YES condition: a formal written US–Iran agreement with concrete, verifiable nuclear limits AND sanctions relief, agreed/signed before Nov 1. The National (Sep 29): quiet indirect talks in New York, “breakthrough elusive,” dispute over who takes delivery of the 440 kg of 60% uranium, no draft text, no scheduled round. Precedents (JUN, JUL rungs, both NO; 06/17/26 clarification): an MoU deferring nuclear substance does not pay. 33 days is short for a text; but ≤6% max win is outside the band.
YES condition (H25): the Bank of Canada must raise the overnight target 25bp at the Oct 28 fixed announcement date. Rate 2.25% since late 2025; markets “a coin flip, narrowly in favour of a hike” (Globe and Mail, Sep 18); RBC, Desjardins, Capital Economics expect a hold with a Q1-2027 hike; National Bank and Scotiabank forecast an October hike; the October MPR will raise inflation forecasts on oil. My 45% hike / 54% hold is inside the book. Precedents (12 rows, July ladder): outer rungs uninformative; the July hold was fully priced. Anchor has no coin-flip lane and no directional-macro YES lane.
Universe from /tmp/out/targets.json (generated 2026-09-29T16:37Z, min OI 5,000). Live data from the Kalshi public API (markets, orderbook, candlesticks period 60) at 16:40Z; all prices read from *_dollars / *_fp fields. Precedents from resolution_precedents (162 rows; 3 for KXIPOANTHROPIC, 2 KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT, 2 KXKASHOUT, 12 KXCBDECISIONCANADA, 0 KXDIESELEXPORTBAN). Probabilities were committed before the orderbook and candlesticks were opened; the Anthropic number moved 11% → 10% after the Polymarket cross-check. Anchor rules applied in order: side rule → continuous-number → continuation tail → rules-reading edge → band → one leg per cluster → flat sizing with depth cap.