# Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit (Anchor, NO-side structural) — 2026-09-25

Date: 2026-09-25
Source: https://kalshi-audits.pages.dev/2026-09-25-kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit-anchor

---
Report date 2026-09-25 · strategy **Anchor** · audit_version `anchor` · category focus Politics · horizon 45 days · capital $2,500

# Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit (Anchor, NO-side structural)

Picks0Capital deployed$0Cash held100%Logged rejects30Stage-0 universe114 series · 859 open

## 1. Summary

**Zero picks. Cash is the position this week.** The Stage-0 allowlist (120 rows, 114 distinct series) holds 859 open markets, but only 70 of them close inside the 45-day horizon, and the Anchor mechanical cuts leave **two** Stage-2 candidates. Both were researched to a probability and both fail the entry band: the Tesla/SpaceX combination leg (NO ask 91¢, deep-favorite band, zero passive depth) and the Bank of Canada October hold (57¢, below the 60¢ floor on either side). No YES thesis of the two permitted shapes (already-happened, process-in-motion) exists in the horizon.

The remaining within-horizon volume sits in markets the rules exclude mechanically: sub-5¢ favourites (McConnell, Pelosi, Iran deal, Anthropic IPO rungs), sub-week expiries (Oct 1 rungs across Hegseth, Kash Patel, Iran, Mamdani, the California Jewish-ethnicity bill), Mentions-type speech markets (Trump criticising Warsh), and markets whose `close_time` sits more than an hour after `expected_expiration_time` (the November ballot measures and the impeachment ladder).

Existing pick `KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE-26JAN-OCT` (NO) is not in a target series this run and was not re-examined; no pick or reject collides with it.

## 2. Picks

0 picks No market survived Stage 3.5. Under Anchor a zero-pick run is a normal, correct result; the band and depth rules are doing the work the Sep 2026 study asked them to do (no ≥90¢ favourites, no coin-flip lane).

## 3. Stage-2 candidates and why they were rejected

### corporate-event no-vehicle Tesla / SpaceX definitive combination agreement before Nov 1, 2026 — KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26NOV01

**YES condition:** For YES to pay, Tesla or SpaceX must officially announce (press release, 8-K, earnings call, verified account) a definitive, binding agreement to combine the two companies before Nov 1, 2026, resolved by Kalshi off official company channels; per `rules_secondary` a Musk statement counts only as “an unambiguous, affirmative confirmation of a definitive signed agreement — not an expression of intent”.

**Thesis shape:** Anchor-shaped (a new action by an institution by a deadline). **Side:** NO (status quo / no vehicle).

**Diligence.** Vehicle: none. Tesla's EDGAR 8-K list ends at 2026-07-22 (items 2.02/9.01, earnings); SpaceX's ends at 2026-08-14 (items 2.01/3.02/9.01, the Cursor merger closing). No 1.01 “entry into a material definitive agreement” from either company references the other. Calendar: the only official channel event inside the window is Tesla's Q3 earnings call (reported as Oct 28, 2026, after close). Already-happened: no — Musk's All-In Summit remark (September 2026: “who can imagine what action one might take when there's so much close collaboration”) is intent, which the rules exclude; Polymarket's Dec-31 announcement contract was 18% on Aug 5 (Yahoo Finance).

**Prob: 5% pre-market → 6% final.** Book: YES 9/11, last 10¢, vol24h 5,651, OI 97,046. NO ask 91¢ with 134 contracts; next 92¢ (209), 93¢ (2,467). A passive NO rest at 89¢ would join 23 contracts already bid there and has **zero** NO offers at or below it, so the 1/3-depth cap sizes the order at 0.

**Cleanest tail:** a surprise 8-K or a Q3-call confirmation of a signed agreement. That is a new discrete event, an acceptable shape, but the pick fails before shape matters: deep-favorite band (≥90¢; max win ≤ 11% of risk and the 90¢+ cohort showed no edge). Consistent with the Anchor rejects of Sep 21 and Sep 24.

**Precedents consulted:** no rows for `KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER`; nearest archetype rows are KXIPOANTHROPIC JUN01/JUL01 (NO) and KXIPO-26-SPACEX, whose lesson — “filing-adjacent headlines move the price without touching the resolution trigger” — is the same dynamic seen here on Aug 14–20 (YES 10–16¢ on merger chatter) and Sep 13 (12–16¢), each reverting to 8–10¢.

### scheduled-process status-quo Bank of Canada holds at the Oct 28, 2026 meeting — KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H0

**YES condition:** For YES to pay, the Bank of Canada must leave the policy rate at 2.25% at its scheduled Oct 28, 2026 announcement, resolved by Kalshi off the Bank's decision.

**Thesis shape:** a scheduled decision by an institution (Anchor-shaped), but the natural side is a hold-YES, which is a status-quo forecast on the YES side — not one of the two permitted YES shapes. The Anchor expression would be NO on the 25bp-hike leg, which failed Stage 0 on volume (366 < 500) and prices at 55¢, below the band.

**Diligence.** Vehicle: the Oct 28 fixed announcement date and Monetary Policy Report (official BoC calendar). Calendar: September jobs (~Oct 9), Business Outlook Survey (~Oct 19), September CPI (~Oct 20) all land before the decision. News: BNN Bloomberg, Sep 18, 2026 — markets see the meeting “as a coin flip, narrowly in favour of a hike”; policy rate 2.25% after the Sep 2 hold; Desjardins (Bartlett) expects no move until Q1 2027; Capital Economics (Brown): “base case is that the bank will not hike in October, though it will likely be a close call”; the Fed hiked the same week.

**Prob: 55% pre-market → 55% final.** Book: YES 56/57, vol24h 555, OI 29,184; H0 has slid from 90¢ (Sep 7) to 57¢ (Sep 23–25) on the hawkish Sep 2 statement and oil. Precedent store: June/July H0 legs resolved YES at consensus; the Sep 24 note records that “the hold-leg carry disappears the moment guidance turns conditional”.

below band YES 57¢ < 60¢ and NO 44¢ < 60¢. Nothing to do here before the Oct 20 CPI print; if the ladder re-forms with a hike leg ≥60¢ NO, that leg would be the Anchor candidate at the next run.

**Precedents consulted:** KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26JUL-H0 (YES), -26JUL-H25 (NO), -26JUN-H0 (YES), -26JUN-H25 (NO), plus the un-resolved -26SEP-H0/H25 notes of Sep 24.

## 4. Position sizes, limits and EV (for the record)

| Ticker | Side | Limit | Contracts | Cost | Model P(YES) | Edge | EV % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No positions. $2,500 (100%) held in cash; reserve requirement (≥10%) trivially met. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |

## 5. Cluster table

| Cluster | Legs examined | Deployed leg |
|---|---|---|
| tesla-spacex-combination | NOV01 (Stage 2), OCT01 (inside 7d) | none — deep-favorite band |
| boc-oct28-decision | H0 (Stage 2), H25 (volume), C25/H26/C26 (sub-5¢) | none — below band |
| hegseth-out · us-iran-deal · anthropic-ipo-timing · trump-impeachment · ca-2026-ballot-measures | Stage-0 only | none |

## 6. Risk profile

- **Capital at risk:** $0 of $2,500. Max drawdown this cycle: $0.
- **Correlation:** none (no legs).
- **Specialist-dense books flagged (vol24h > 5,000):** Iran-deal OCT rung (71k), CA wealth tax (32.6k), Iran-deal NOV rung (22k), McConnell (6.8k), Tesla/SpaceX NOV01 (5.7k). All excluded on mechanical grounds, not on edge.

## 7. Rejected log (30)

Every within-horizon market with volume ≥ 500 or notable open interest, plus the two Stage-2 survivors. Side and price are what the audit would have taken, for the passed-on scoreboard; probabilities only where diligence was actually done.

| Market | Archetype | Side @ price | P(YES) | Close | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| `KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26NOV01` Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acqui | corporate-event | NO @ 91¢ | 6% | 2026-11-01 | deep-favorite band: NO ask 91¢ (YES 9/11). A passive NO rest at 89¢ (thin-favorite band) has zero NO offers at or below the limit in the fetched book, so the 1/3-depth cap sizes it at 0 contracts. Thesis would be no-vehicle: no Tesla 8-K since Jul 22 and no SpaceX 8-K since Aug 14 (Cursor merger close) reference any Tesla/SpaceX agreement; Musk's All-In Summit remark (Sep 2026) is an expression of intent, which rules_secondary explicitly excludes. Prob 5% pre-market → 6% final. Tail = a surprise definitive-agreement 8-K or a Q3-call confirmation (Tesla Q3 call Oct 28) — a new discrete event, acceptable shape, but the band rule governs. |
| `KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H0` Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting? | scheduled-process | YES @ 57¢ | 55% | 2026-10-28 | below band: YES 57¢ < 60¢ floor (NO 44¢ also below band). Also fails the side rule — a hold-YES is a status-quo forecast of the decision's content, not an already-happened or process-in-motion step. Prob 55% pre-market → 55% final vs an OIS-tracking book at 56/57 (BNN Sep 18: 'coin flip, narrowly favouring a hike'; RBC/Desjardins/Capital Economics still forecast hold). Inside the no-trade band; nothing to do before the ~Oct 20 September CPI print. |
| `KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H25` Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting? | scheduled-process | NO @ 55¢ | 45% | 2026-10-28 | volume24h 366 < 500 (Stage-0). Would be the Anchor-shaped leg (NO on the hike) but NO costs 55¢, below the 60¢ band, and its loss tail (oil stays elevated, Sep CPI on ~Oct 20 prints hot) is a continuation tail. |
| `KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26OCT` Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? | scheduled-process | NO @ 99¢ |  | 2026-10-01 | inside 7d: closes 2026-10-01 (5.9d); YES 0/2 also ≤5¢ ask. |
| `KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26NOV` Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? | scheduled-process | NO @ 97¢ |  | 2026-11-01 | deep-favorite band: YES ask 4¢ ≤ 5¢ (Stage-0); NO would cost 97¢. |
| `KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26OCT01` Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acqui | corporate-event | NO @ 99¢ |  | 2026-10-01 | inside 7d: closes 2026-10-01; YES ask 2¢ ≤ 5¢. |
| `KXRETIREMM-26` Will Mitch McConnell resign his office early? | departure/ouster | NO @ 97¢ |  | 2026-11-03 | deep-favorite band: YES 3.4/3.5 → ask ≤ 5¢ (Stage-0); NO ≥ 96¢. |
| `KXRETIREPELOSI-26` Will Nancy Pelosi resign her office early? | departure/ouster | NO @ 98¢ |  | 2026-11-03 | deep-favorite band: YES 2.7/2.8 → ask ≤ 5¢ (Stage-0); NO ≥ 97¢. |
| `KXHEGSETHOUT-26AUG-26NOV01` Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Nov 1, 2026? | multi-news-other | NO @ 90¢ |  | 2026-11-01 | close after expiration: expected_expiration 2026-10-01T14:00 is 31 days before close_time 2026-11-01T04:59 (>1h). Also effective deadline inside 7d if the expiration field is taken at face value. |
| `KXHEGSETHOUT-26AUG-26DEC01` Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Dec 1, 2026? | multi-news-other | NO @ 83¢ |  | 2026-12-01 | close after expiration: expected_expiration 2026-10-01 vs close 2026-12-01; volume24h 385 < 500. |
| `KXHEGSETHOUT-26AUG-26OCT01` Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Oct 1, 2026? | multi-news-other | NO @ 99¢ |  | 2026-10-01 | inside 7d: expires 2026-10-01 (5.9d). |
| `KXMAMDANIEO-26SEP26-T0` Will Mamdani sign above 0 executive orders between Sep 20, 2026 and Sep 26, 2026 | confirmation/enact | NO @ 98¢ |  | 2026-09-27 | inside 7d: closes 2026-09-27; also a cumulative-count market (continuous-number market). |
| `KXSUEZWEEKLY-26SEP27-T270` Will there be more than 270 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Sep 21, 20 | legal-action | NO @ 18¢ |  | 2026-09-29 | inside 7d: expires 2026-09-29 (3.9d); also a transit-count market (continuous-number market). |
| `KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26NOV01` When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? | corporate-event | NO @ 96¢ |  | 2026-11-01 | deep-favorite band: YES 4/5 → ask ≤ 5¢ (Stage-0); precedent store (KXIPOANTHROPIC JUN01/JUL01) confirms only S-1 effectiveness, a priced offering or an assigned ticker count. |
| `KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT24` When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? | corporate-event | NO @ 99¢ |  | 2026-10-24 | deep-favorite band: YES 1/2 → ask ≤ 5¢ (Stage-0). |
| `KXLOCALLAW-CAJEWISH-26OCT01` Will California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity? | confirmation/enact | NO @ 98¢ |  | 2026-10-01 | inside 7d: 'enacted before Oct 1, 2026', closes 2026-10-01T03:59 (5.5d). Spread 2/7 also at the 5¢ limit. |
| `KXDJTATTACKWARSH-26SEP-26NOV01` Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh before Nov 1, 2026? | multi-news-other | NO @ 90¢ |  | 2026-11-01 | Mentions market ('will Trump publicly criticize Warsh' = will X say Y) — skipped whatever the category. |
| `KXDJTATTACKWARSH-26SEP-26OCT01` Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh before Oct 1, 2026? | multi-news-other | NO @ 99¢ |  | 2026-10-01 | Mentions market; also inside 7d (closes 2026-10-01). |
| `KXCAWEALTHTAX-26` Will a one-time tax on billionaires ballot initiative in California pass? | confirmation/enact | NO @ 69¢ |  | 2027-11-03 | close after expiration: expected_expiration 2026-11-03T15:00 (election day) vs close_time 2027-11-03 (>1h). Noted as the highest-volume within-horizon market cut by a mechanical rule; the thesis would in any case be poll-driven, whose named tail ('polls keep moving') is a continuation tail. |
| `KXCAVOTERID-26` Will the 2026 California Voter ID initiative pass? | confirmation/enact | NO @ 66¢ |  | 2027-11-03 | close after expiration (exp 2026-11-03 vs close 2027-11-03); volume24h 293 < 500. |
| `KXIMPEACH-28-JAN01` Will the President be impeached before Jan 1, 2028? | legal-action | YES @ 67¢ |  | 2028-01-01 | close after expiration: API expected_expiration 2026-11-03 vs close_time 2028-01-01. Real deadline (Jan 1, 2028) is far beyond the 45-day horizon. |
| `KXIMPEACH-27-MAR01` Will the President be impeached before Mar 1, 2027? | legal-action | NO @ 79¢ |  | 2027-03-01 | close after expiration (exp 2026-11-03 vs close 2027-03-01); real deadline beyond horizon. |
| `KXIMPEACH-27-JAN01` Will the President be impeached before Jan 1, 2027? | legal-action | NO @ 97¢ |  | 2027-01-01 | close after expiration (exp 2026-11-03 vs close 2027-01-01); YES ask 3.2¢ ≤ 5¢. |
| `KXSENATEREC-26JUN-26OCT01` Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Oct 1, 2026? | confirmation/enact | NO @ 99¢ |  | 2026-10-01 | inside 7d (closes 2026-10-01); volume24h 401 < 500. |
| `KXGALLEGOOUT-26APR-NOV03` Will Ruben Gallego be out as Senator before Nov 3, 2026? | departure/ouster | NO @ 96¢ |  | 2026-11-03 | volume24h 386 < 500; YES ask 5¢ at the Stage-0 limit. |
| `KXKASHOUT-26JUL-26OCT01` Will Kash Patel be out as FBI Director before Oct 1, 2026? | departure/ouster | NO @ 99¢ |  | 2026-10-01 | inside 7d (closes 2026-10-01); volume24h 350 < 500. |
| `KXKASHOUT-26JUL-26NOV01` Will Kash Patel be out as FBI Director before Nov 1, 2026? | departure/ouster | NO @ 94¢ |  | 2026-11-01 | volume24h 72 < 500; NO would be 93–94¢ (deep-favorite band). |
| `KXLEAVEMERZ-29JAN01-26NOV01` Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Nov 1, 2026? | departure/ouster | NO @ 96¢ |  | 2026-11-01 | volume24h 200 < 500; YES ask 5¢. |
| `KXDEMSCHUMER-27-NOV03` Will any current member of the Democratic Senate caucus (including independents | departure/ouster | NO @ 87¢ |  | 2026-11-03 | volume24h 0 < 500 (OI 12.3k, no trades); spread 13/17 = 4¢. |
| `KXMILLEROUT-26JUL-26NOV03` Will Max Miller be out as U.S. representative before Nov 3, 2026? | multi-news-other | NO @ 99¢ |  | 2026-11-03 | volume24h 0 < 500; YES ask 5¢. |

## 8. Stage-0 universe notes

- `targets.json` generated 2026-09-25T16:37Z, min OI 5,000: 120 rows, 114 distinct series (six duplicated across categories). Live pull: 859 open markets; 70 close within 45 days.
- Cuts inside the horizon: 25 inside 7 days, 9 close-after-expiration, ~45 below the 500 volume floor, 3+ sub-5¢ asks, 2 Mentions-type. Two candidates reached Stage 2.
- Two API quirks worth recording for the target-scan: (a) dated “before <date>” rungs often carry the parent event's `expected_expiration_time` (e.g. Iran-deal OCT rung closes Oct 1 but shows Jan 2027 expiry), so the 7-day rule was applied to the earlier of close and expiration; (b) the impeachment ladder and the Nov 3 ballot measures show an expiration _earlier_ than close, which the “close after expiration” rule catches — the ballot measures (CA wealth tax at 31/32, 32.6k vol24h) are the highest-volume market this rule removed.
- No Tier 3 rows exist in the file; no fallback scan was run.

## 9. Execution notes

- Nothing to execute. Do not rest a NO bid at 89¢ on the Tesla/SpaceX leg: it sits behind 23 contracts with no offers below 91¢, and a fill would only come from a YES buyer paying up into a rising market — exactly the adverse-selection profile the band rule exists to avoid.
- Watchlist for the next run: BoC Oct H25 leg (NO) if volume clears 500 and NO ≥ 60¢ after the Oct 9 jobs or Oct 20 CPI print; any Nov-dated departure/ouster rung that lifts to a 60–84¢ NO with volume.

## 10. Data sources

- DB query API (`/schema` read first): `resolution_precedents` (162 rows; 12 KXCBDECISIONCANADA, 4 corporate-event), `signals` (prior Anchor/Keel rejects on both candidates).
- Kalshi public API: `/markets?series_ticker=…&status=open` for all 114 series; `/markets/{ticker}`, `/markets/{ticker}/orderbook`, daily candlesticks for the two candidates (all `*_fp`/`*_dollars` fields).
- Primary sources: SEC EDGAR 8-K lists for Tesla (CIK 1318605, latest 2026-07-22) and SpaceX (CIK 1181412, latest 2026-08-14); BNN Bloomberg, Sep 18, 2026 (BoC hike odds); Motley Fool, Sep 24, 2026 (All-In Summit quote); Yahoo Finance, Aug 5, 2026 (Polymarket 18% Dec-31 contract); earnings-calendar aggregators for the Tesla Q3 date (Oct 28, 2026).
- Kalshi `rules_primary`/`rules_secondary` quoted verbatim for both candidates.

Anchor · 0 picks · 30 rejects · $0 of $2,500 allocated · generated 2026-09-25.