Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit (Anchor, NO-side structural)
targets.json (120 allowlisted series, min OI 5,000, generated 2026-09-22 16:37Z)1. Universe and Stage-0 cuts
897 open markets were pulled live from the Kalshi public API across all 117 unique allowlisted series. Applying the horizon (min of close_time and expected_expiration_time within 45 days) and the mechanical cuts (vol24h ≥ 500, spread ≤ 5¢, YES bid < 95¢, YES ask > 5¢, no Mentions markets, no close-after-expiration anomalies, no sub-7-day expiries, no count/level markets) left the slate below. The bulk of the liquid Tier-1 politics book (Trump administration departures, SAVE Act, impeachment, Patel, Walz) expires in January 2027, outside the horizon; those are on the watch list in §6.
| Ticker | Tier / archetype | Question | Deadline | YES bid/ask | vol24h | Stage-0 result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H25 | T2 scheduled-process | BoC hikes 25bps Oct 28 | Oct 28 | 40 / 41 | 3,211 | Candidate |
| KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H0 | T2 scheduled-process | BoC holds Oct 28 | Oct 28 | 55 / 57 | 1,628 | Candidate |
| KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26NOV01 | T2 corporate-event | Tesla/SpaceX definitive agreement before Nov 1 | Nov 1 | 9 / 12 | 10,828 (specialist-dense) | Candidate |
| KXLEAVEMERZ-29JAN01-26NOV01 | T1 departure/ouster | Merz announces exit / leaves before Nov 1 | Nov 1 | 6 / 11 | 515 | Candidate (thin) |
| KXCAWEALTHTAX-26 | T1 confirmation/enact | CA billionaire tax passes | Nov 3 exp / Nov 2027 close | 30 / 31 | 103,544 | Reject: close after expiration |
| KXIMPEACH-27-MAR01 / -28-JAN01 | T1 legal-action | President impeached | exp Nov 3, close 2027/28 | 21/22, 66/67 | 1,470 / 1,875 | Reject: close after expiration |
| KXHEGSETHOUT-26AUG-26NOV01 / -26DEC01 | T2 departure/ouster | Hegseth out | exp Oct 1, close Nov 1 / Dec 1 | 6/7, 20/22 | 2,751 / 4,070 | Reject: close after expiration |
| KXMAMDANIEO-26SEP26-T0 | T1 confirmation/enact | Mamdani signs >0 EOs Sep 20–26 | Sep 26 | 13 / 14 | 5,454 | Reject: continuous-number market, inside 7d |
| KXDJTATTACKWARSH-26SEP-26NOV01 | T2 multi-news | Trump criticizes Warsh | Nov 1 | 11 / 12 | 950 | Reject: Mentions market |
| KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-HOLD | T2 scheduled-process | Banxico holds Sep 24 | Sep 24 | 97 / 100 | 670 | Reject: inside 7d |
| KXKASHOUT-26JUL-26NOV01, KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26NOV, KXRETIREMM-26, KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26NOV01/-26OCT24, KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26OCT01, KXLEAVEMERZ-29JAN01-26OCT01, KXHEGSETHOUT-26AUG-26OCT01, KXLOCALLAW-CAAANG-26OCT01 | T1/T2 | various | Oct 1 – Nov 3 | YES ask ≤ 7¢ | 601 – 83,439 | Reject: deep-favorite band (NO ≥ 93¢) |
Existing pick KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE-26JAN-OCT (NO) is not in the allowlist and was not encountered. 29 further within-horizon markets failed the 500-contract volume floor (Ebola country ladder, Banxico outer rungs, reproductive-rights measures, Gallego, Mills, Powell governor seat, DNC chair, PROMISE Act, etc.) and were not researched.
2. Precedents consulted
- KXCBDECISIONCANADA (12 rows, Jun–Sep 2026): every outer rung NO, both June and July holds YES; Sep 21 note: "model P(hike)=40% vs market 42–43% — inside the spread, no edge either side"; "the Anchor-shaped trade on this series is NO on the hike leg only once … the Bank's own core-based trigger (trim/median >2%) is still unmet at the last CPI before the meeting". Sep 18 note: ladder converges on OIS within ~two weeks of a hold-with-warning.
- corporate-event (KXIPOANTHROPIC ×3, KXIPO-26-SPACEX): "'filed' and 'confirmed' are separated by months of process"; filing-adjacent headlines move price without moving resolution. Applied by analogy to the Tesla/SpaceX definitive-agreement bar.
- departure/ouster (KXKASHOUT, KXHEGSETHOUT, KXLUTNICKOUT, KXLEAVEWALZ, KXALITO*, KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV, KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-TGAB): "far rungs are the most systematically overpriced"; "require an affirmative signal before paying anything above the base rate"; "trade the date in the rules text, not the title". No KXLEAVEMERZ rows exist; the Merz read was derived cold from the departure/ouster archetype rows.
3. Stage-2 diligence: the four candidates
KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H25 — Bank of Canada hikes 25bps on Oct 28?
REJECT: inside spreadstatus-quowould-be side: NO @ 60¢YES condition: For YES to pay, the Bank of Canada must raise its overnight target by exactly 25bps at the Oct 28, 2026 fixed announcement date, resolved by Kalshi off the Bank's press release. New action by an institution → Anchor-shaped.
Vehicle / calendar / already happened: The vehicle is the scheduled Oct 28 meeting (Bank of Canada calendar). Before it: September jobs (~Oct 9), Business Outlook Survey (~Oct 19), September CPI (~Oct 20). The last print, StatCan Aug CPI (Sep 14, 2026): headline 3.0% y/y (unchanged, −0.1% m/m), CPI-trim 1.9%, CPI-median 2.0%, both unchanged. Nothing has happened yet; Sep 2 was the seventh straight hold, with Macklem "prepared to raise interest rates, and if it takes more than one increase, we're prepared to do that".
Probability: 38% pre-market → 40% final. All 35 economists surveyed (Globe and Mail, Sep 18) forecast a hold; OIS is "narrowly in favour of a hike" (BNN Bloomberg, Sep 18). The Bank's own core trigger is unmet, which argues for a hold, but the Bank has explicitly pre-committed to act on persistent energy pass-through. The book is liquid (OI 26.9k, vol24 3.2k), so I respected it.
Book (opened after committing): YES 40/41; NO fillable at 60¢ for 208 contracts, 61¢ for a further 194. 48h move: 38 → 41 (+3). 10-day: 22/24 (Sep 12) → 40/41.
Resolver profile: Kalshi settles off the Bank's decision; precedent shows "Hike of 0bps" read literally as no change and every outer rung paid NO. Resolver risk ≈ 1 pt.
Cleanest tail: oil stays high, the Sep CPI prints another 3-handle and the Bank acts on its stated warning — i.e., the current inflation trend continuing. That is continuation-shaped, and with NO at 60¢ against a 60¢ fair value there is no edge to absorb it. The precedent store's own Sep 21 guidance is to wait for the Oct 20 CPI. Logged reject, side NO, 60¢, model 40%.
Sources: StatCan Daily Sep 14, 2026; BNN Bloomberg Sep 18, 2026; Globe and Mail Sep 18, 2026; CBC Sep 2, 2026 decision coverage; Kalshi API rules text.
KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H0 — Bank of Canada holds on Oct 28?
REJECT: below bandprocess-in-motionwould-be side: YES @ 57¢Mirror of the H25 leg (the two rungs sum to ~97¢ with the >25bp outer rungs at 1–3¢). A YES on the hold leg is technically an allowed shape (a decision meeting on the central bank's published calendar, with precedent showing Kalshi pays the 0bps leg on a hold), but 57¢ is under the 60¢ floor and the model's 60% hold gives ~3 pts of edge, which does not clear the band or the 2¢ spread. Same cluster as H25 (boc-oct-2026-decision).
KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26NOV01 — Tesla/SpaceX definitive merger or acquisition agreement before Nov 1?
REJECT: deep-favorite bandno-vehiclewould-be side: NO @ 91¢YES condition: For YES to pay, Tesla or SpaceX must officially announce a definitive, binding, signed agreement to combine (any structure, any acquirer) before Nov 1, 2026 04:59Z, resolved by Kalshi off official company channels (press release, SEC filing, verified account); the rules_secondary clarification says a Musk statement counts only as "an unambiguous, affirmative confirmation of a definitive signed agreement — not an expression of intent, a hypothetical, a negotiation update". Anchor-shaped.
Vehicle / calendar / already happened: No vehicle. No special committee, no filed agreement, no proxy, no exchange ratio has been disclosed (Reuters/Benzinga, Sep 16). What exists: Tesla's equity stake and a "framework agreement" with SpaceX (Q2 call, Jul 22, 2026, general counsel Brandon Ehrhart), Musk's "imagine what action one might take" on the All-In podcast (Sep 14), and sell-side chatter (Morgan Stanley note Sep 22; Wedbush "80% within 18 months"). Both are now public companies (SpaceX priced Jun 11, 2026 as SPCX), so a stock-for-stock combination needs two boards and conflicted-director committees; the SolarCity template ran six weeks from public proposal to definitive agreement, and no proposal has been made.
Probability: 5% pre-market → 7% final (specialist-dense book, vol24 10.8k, OI 88.7k; Polymarket's looser "by Dec 31" contract at 22% implies a low single-digit share landing in the next 39 days under Kalshi's stricter bar).
Book (opened after committing): YES 9/12. NO is fillable only by hitting YES bids: 16 contracts at 9 (NO 91¢), 129 at 8 (NO 92¢). Resting NO bids already stack at 88¢ (49) and 87¢ (559). A NO bid at 89¢, the last in-band cent, has zero visible contracts to take, so the depth cap resolves to 0. 48h move: 10 → 10 (flat); intraday 7/9 → 10/11 on 3,365 contracts in the 16:00Z hour.
Resolver profile: Kalshi's clarification is unusually strict, which protects NO; residual risk is an ambiguous Musk post being paid as YES (≈2 pts).
Cleanest tail: a surprise signed agreement announced by Musk — a new discrete event, so the tail shape is acceptable. But the entry is not: 91¢+ is the deep-favorite band the record shows no edge in. Logged reject, side NO, 91¢, model 7%.
Sources: Kalshi API rules_primary/secondary; Electrek Jul 22, 2026; Benzinga Sep 2026 (All-In podcast; Morgan Stanley note); Polymarket "Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by…" (Dec 31, 2026 rung 22%).
KXLEAVEMERZ-29JAN01-26NOV01 — Merz announces departure or leaves as Chancellor before Nov 1?
REJECT: deep-favorite bandstatus-quowould-be side: NO @ 94¢YES condition: For YES to pay, Merz (or his authorized representative or the office's governing body) must officially announce he will leave the chancellorship within a year, or actually leave, before Nov 1, 2026 03:59Z, reported by a source agency. Note the low bar: an announcement of intent pays.
Vehicle / calendar / already happened: Not happened. After the CDU's historic defeat in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and the Berlin vote (Sep 20), Merz has explicitly rejected resignation and says he will keep his reform course as chairman and chancellor (SRF, Sep 21; ZDF, Sep 15). Merz put an "indirect confidence question" to the CDU presidium on election night; Vice General Secretary Christina Stumpp stepped down Sep 21. Polls Sep 22: 55% want him to resign (onvista/Berliner Zeitung). The SPD says continuing the coalition is not tied to Merz personally. Successor names floated: Wüst, Söder. No Bundestag confidence vote, party conference or coalition committee date is set that would force an exit before Nov 1.
Probability: 12% pre-market → 12% final (book too thin to move me: vol24 515, OI 1.9k, market opened Sep 17).
Book (opened after committing): YES 6/11, 5¢ spread. NO fillable only at 94¢ (20 contracts), 95¢ (200). A 2,210-contract NO bid already rests at 89¢. Price path: 12/13 (Sep 18) → 18/29 on election night (Sep 20) → 6/11 (Sep 22); the overreaction-fade window, NO at ~71–82¢, has already closed.
Cleanest tail: pressure keeps mounting and Merz announces he will step down — the current trend continuing, so continuation-shaped as well as out of band. Logged reject, side NO, 94¢, model 12%.
Sources: SRF Sep 21, 2026; ZDFheute Sep 15, 2026; onvista/dpa poll Sep 22, 2026; Kalshi API rules_primary/secondary.
4. Picks, sizing and cluster table
No picks. Position-size table, EV-for-the-record and execution notes are therefore empty. Cluster assignments for the logged rejects: boc-oct-2026-decision (H25, H0), tesla-spacex-merger (NOV01, OCT01), merz-chancellor-exit (NOV01, OCT01), hegseth-exit (3 rungs), anthropic-ipo-timing (2), trump-impeachment (2), and one-off clusters for the rest.
| Line | Amount |
|---|---|
| Capital | $2,500 |
| Deployed | $0 (0 legs) |
| Cash / reserve | $2,500 (100%; ≥10% reserve satisfied) |
5. Risk profile
No market exposure. The one near-miss worth tracking is the BoC October hike leg: the store's Sep 21 guidance and this run agree that NO H25 becomes Anchor-shaped only if the Sep CPI (~Oct 20) keeps trim/median at or below 2% while the hike leg still trades at or above 40¢. That would put a NO entry at ≤60¢ with a status-quo mechanism and eight days to the decision, which clears the 7-day rule.
6. Watch list: liquid allowlisted markets outside the 45-day horizon
Not candidates this run; listed so the next run with a longer horizon or a later date can pick them up. Prices are live YES bid/ask on Sep 22.
| Ticker | Question | Expires | YES | vol24h | Anchor note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-PHEG | Hegseth leaves SecDef before 2027 | Jan 2027 | 28 / 29 | 12,319 | NO at 71–72¢ is in the core band; precedent: sitting defence chief mid-conflict is a structural NO. Enters horizon ~Nov 17. |
| KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-KPAT | Patel leaves FBI before 2027 | Jan 2027 | 20 / 21 | 3,628 | NO at 79–80¢; far-rung overpricing precedent. |
| KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-SMIL / -HLUT | Miller / Lutnick leave before 2027 | Jan 2027 | 17/21, 18/19 | 3,610 / 2,493 | NO at 79–83¢. |
| KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-BNETISR | Netanyahu leaves PM before 2027 | Jan 2027 | 48 / 49 | 4,221 | Coin flip; below band either side. |
| KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26DEC01 | Anthropic IPO confirmed before Dec 1 | Dec 1 | 56 / 58 | 6,036 | Mechanical trigger (S-1 effective / priced / ticker); enters horizon Oct 17. |
| KXLOCALLAW-WYDAA-27APR01 | Wyoming Digital Asset Authority | Apr 2027 | 25 / 28 | 2,089 | NO at 72–75¢; needs vehicle check. |
7. Rejected markets (machine log)
| Ticker | Side | Price | Model P(YES) | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H25 | NO | 60 | 40 | inside spread (zero edge; continuation-shaped tail; wait for Oct 20 CPI) |
| KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H0 | YES | 57 | 60 | below band |
| KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26NOV01 | NO | 91 | 7 | deep-favorite band (in-band 89¢ bid has zero depth) |
| KXLEAVEMERZ-29JAN01-26NOV01 | NO | 94 | 12 | deep-favorite band |
| KXCAWEALTHTAX-26 | NO | 70 | — | close after expiration |
| KXIMPEACH-27-MAR01 / KXIMPEACH-28-JAN01 | NO | 79 / 34 | — | close after expiration |
| KXHEGSETHOUT-26AUG-26NOV01 / -26DEC01 | NO | 94 / 80 | 5 / — | close after expiration |
| KXMAMDANIEO-26SEP26-T0 | NO | 87 | — | continuous-number market; inside 7d |
| KXDJTATTACKWARSH-26SEP-26NOV01 | NO | 88 | — | Mentions market |
| KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-HOLD | YES | 100 | — | inside 7d |
| KXKASHOUT-26JUL-26NOV01 | NO | 96 | 4 | deep-favorite band |
| KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26NOV | NO | 97 | 3 | deep-favorite band |
| KXRETIREMM-26 | NO | 96 | 3 | deep-favorite band |
| KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26NOV01 / -26OCT24 | NO | 94 / 98 | 8 / 2 | deep-favorite band |
| KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26OCT01 | NO | 100 | 1 | deep-favorite band; cluster runner-up |
| KXLEAVEMERZ-29JAN01-26OCT01 | NO | 99 | 2 | deep-favorite band |
| KXHEGSETHOUT-26AUG-26OCT01 | NO | 100 | 1 | deep-favorite band |
| KXLOCALLAW-CAAANG-26OCT01 | NO | 99 | — | deep-favorite band |
8. Precedent writeback
Two rows written to /tmp/out/precedents.json for the settled September legs KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26SEP-H25 (result no) and -26SEP-H0 (result yes), verified against the Kalshi API this run, recording the Aug CPI print (Sep 14) and the October-ladder repricing that followed the hold-with-warning.
Method: Stage-0 allowlist → live API scan (897 markets) → mechanical cuts → precedent retrieval → rules text and rules_secondary → YES-condition sentence → primary-source news → pre-market probability committed → orderbook and candlesticks → blend → Anchor side/band/tail rules → flat sizing. Public API bare-cent fields are null; all prices read from *_dollars / *_fp variants.