# Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit (v4, archetype-targeted)

Date: 2026-09-18
Source: https://kalshi-audits.pages.dev/2026-09-18-kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit-v4

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# Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit (v4, archetype-targeted)

Report date 2026-09-18 · Keel v4 · category focus: Politics · horizon 45 days · capital $2,500
0picks deployed18logged rejects$0allocated (100% cash)6Stage-0 survivors (all Tier 2)905open markets scanned across 120 series
Verdict: no trade this week. The Stage-0 universe (120 allowlisted series, 905 open markets) produced six liquid, in-horizon candidates, all Tier 2. Every Tier-1 market closing before Nov 2 failed a mechanical cut — dead books (Kash Patel Nov 1 at 50 contracts/day), deep favorites (Russia sanctions bill at 98¢), or sub-5¢ tails. Of the six survivors, one is already a live pick, one sits in the ≥90¢ band, and the remaining four price within a point or two of a committed pre-market probability. Cash is the position: $2,500 held, 0% deployed.

## Stage 0 — Universe and funnel

| Cut | Markets | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Open markets in allowlisted series | 905 | Tier 1: 74 series · Tier 2: 46 series (no Tier 3 in file) |
| Closes after Nov 2, 2026 (beyond 45-day horizon) | 832 | Most Tier-1 mass (SAVE Act, impeachment, Trump-admin departures, McConnell) settles Dec 31 → Jan 4 |
| In horizon, live volume24h < 500 | 56 | Hard rule: 98 of 136 historical picks entered zero-volume books; that cohort had negative edge |
| In horizon, price/spread/expiration cuts | 11 | YES bid ≥95¢, YES ask ≤5¢, spread >5¢, close after expiration, existing pick |
| **Stage-0 survivors** | **6** | KXIPOANTHROPIC NOV01/OCT17 · KXDJTATTACKWARSH NOV01 · KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER NOV01 · KXCBDECISIONCANADA OCT H0/H25 |

No Mentions markets reached the survivor set. Tier-1 near-misses are logged below with their specific cut so the classifier and horizon can be judged against the record.

## Stage 1–3 — Candidate cards (probability before price)

Tier 2multi-news-otherREJECT — NO sidecluster: trump-warsh-criticism

### Trump publicly criticizes Kevin Warsh before Nov 1, 2026?

KXDJTATTACKWARSH-26SEP-26NOV01 · closes 2026-11-01 04:59Z

**Prob:** 72% NO pre-market → 76% final (blended toward 1,000–1,286-contract NO bids at 77–79¢). NO ask 81¢ > 76% → no bet.

**Entry context (live, Sep 18 16:10Z):** YES 19/20¢ · NO ask 81¢ · vol24h 3,736 · OI 13,973

**Precedents consulted:** No rows for KXDJTATTACKWARSH or multi-news-other beyond KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT (not transferable). Cold derivation from live behaviour: markets opened Sep 16 16:45Z, Trump's Truth Social '1% or less' post landed hours later and the market did NOT resolve — the resolver's bar is criticism of Warsh himself, not of rates or 'the board'.
Primary-source diligence:
- CNBC Sep 16: Trump says he 'still has confidence' in Warsh, blames a 'hostile' board, told Warsh 'you might as well vote with the board because it's not going to matter'.
- Truth Social Sep 16 (via Yahoo/IBTimes): 'LOWER THE INTEREST RATES … AND FAST' — directed at the Fed, no reference to Warsh.
- FOMC Oct 27–28 sits inside the window (decision Oct 28 14:00 ET, 3 days before close); a second hike is the one live path to a by-name attack.
- Day-one tape: NOV01 printed 93¢ high on Sep 17 before settling 18–25¢; OCT01 leg now 3/5¢ — the crowd has already concluded nothing so far counts.

**Reject reason:** inside spread: P(NO) 76% vs NO ask 81¢ — no edge; YES side is a <40¢ tail; resolver bar ('disapproval directed at Warsh by name/title') is discretionary

Tier 2corporate-eventREJECT — NO sidecluster: anthropic-ipo-timing

### Anthropic confirms IPO (S-1 effective / priced / ticker) before Nov 1, 2026?

KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26NOV01 · closes 2026-11-01 04:59Z

**Prob:** 48% YES pre-market → 51% YES final (blended toward a 4.8k-vol24 book at Polymarket parity). NO-side P 49% vs NO ask 48¢: 1 pt, inside noise, and band-barred.

**Entry context (live, Sep 18 16:10Z):** YES 52/53¢ · NO ask 48¢ · vol24h 4,840 · OI 89,947

**Precedents consulted:** KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26JUL01 resolved NO — confidential S-1 (Jun 1) met none of the three triggers. KXIPO-26-SPACEX: Kalshi settled on the Jun 11 pricing, not the May 20 public S-1 or roadshow. KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26SEP01 lesson: a Kalshi rung ≈ the Polymarket 'trading by' rung dated one day later; >10 pts above the twin is headline residue.
Primary-source diligence:
- EDGAR full-text search Sep 18: zero S-1/S-1A filings by Anthropic since Jun 1 (only third-party filers mention it) — no public prospectus yet.
- Reuters via CNBC Sep 5: public S-1 late September, marketing mid-October at earliest, listing 'days before' the Nov 3 midterms; Bloomberg Sep 13: Nasdaq chosen; Sep 15: IPO 'still on'.
- Polymarket Sep 18: 'IPO by Oct 31' 54.5% ($890k vol); 'IPO in October' 53.5% — Kalshi NOV01 at 52/53 is at parity after the Sep 13 repricing (70¢ → 50¢ on 18.7k contracts).
- Trigger fires at pricing (evening before first trade), so a debut on Oct 29–30 pays YES and a post-midterm debut pays NO — a genuine timing coin flip.

**Reject reason:** 40–59¢ band requires HIGH conviction AND a Tier-1 process archetype (this is Tier-2 corporate-event); 1-pt paper edge vs Polymarket-parity book is noise; cluster already carries live NO legs (OCT01, OCT17)

Tier 2corporate-eventREJECT — NO sidecluster: tesla-spacex-merger

### Tesla/SpaceX definitive, binding merger agreement announced before Nov 1, 2026?

KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26NOV01 · closes 2026-11-01 04:59Z

**Prob:** 4% YES pre-market → 6% final (blended toward a 10/11 book). P(NO) 94% vs NO ask 90¢: 4 pts, but ≥90¢ is a hard reject.

**Entry context (live, Sep 18 16:10Z):** YES 10/11¢ · NO ask 90¢ · vol24h 1,069 · OI 71,623

**Precedents consulted:** No rows for KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER. Archetype rows (KXIPO/KXIPOANTHROPIC) confirm this resolver waits for the mechanical instrument, not the headline; rules_secondary here explicitly excludes Musk 'expression of intent, hypothetical, negotiation update'.
Primary-source diligence:
- Musk at All-In Summit (Benzinga, Sep 2026): 'who can imagine what action one might take' — intent language, expressly non-qualifying.
- SpaceX priced its IPO Jun 11, 2026 (SPCX); a definitive Tesla/SpaceX agreement within six weeks of a fresh listing has no reported process behind it.
- Kalshi ladder itself prices ~47% by May 2027 and 66% by 2028 — the crowd's mass is 2027, not October.

**Reject reason:** deep-favorite band: NO ask 90¢ (≥90¢ reject); YES side is a <40¢ tail

Tier 2scheduled-processREJECT — YES sidecluster: boc-oct28-decision

### Bank of Canada holds (hike 0bps) at Oct 28, 2026 meeting?

KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H0 · closes 2026-10-28 13:29Z

**Prob:** 60% hold pre-market → 61% final (book is liquid and OIS-anchored; evidence is thin). YES ask 63¢ > 61% → no bet.

**Entry context (live, Sep 18 16:10Z):** YES 62/63¢ · YES ask 63¢ · vol24h 814 · OI 25,471

**Precedents consulted:** KXCBDECISIONCANADA Jun/Jul 2026: six-then-seven consecutive holds, two-sided guidance read as a hold tell. SEP-H0/H25 rows (Sep 2 hold, unanimous 35-economist poll): 'treat OIS as the market's view, not the Bank's signal; hike trigger is core-based (trim/median 1.9–2.0%)'. KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-H0: hawkish repricing into a live meeting was a fade — but that was a Fed that then held; the BoC's own trigger is now closer to firing.
Primary-source diligence:
- BNN Bloomberg Sep 18: swaps 'narrowly in favour of a hike' for Oct 28 (a coin flip); before Sep 2 they had 94% hold.
- Economists: RBC (Fan) hold; Desjardins (Bartlett) hold, first hike Q1 2027; Capital Economics (Brown) 'base case no hike in October, though likely a close call'.
- Fed hiked 25bp to 3.75–4.00% on Sep 16 (unanimous) — adds CAD/imported-inflation pressure; BoC gets Sept CPI (~Oct 20) and the BOS (~Oct 19) before the Oct 28 MPR decision.
- Kalshi H0 slid 89¢ (Sep 5) → 63¢ (Sep 18) and H25 rose 10¢ → 38¢, tracking OIS with a lag of days.

**Reject reason:** inside spread: P(hold) 61% vs YES ask 63¢ — no edge over an OIS-tracking book; no informational advantage over swaps on a macro coin flip

Tier 2scheduled-processREJECT — YES sidecluster: boc-oct28-decision

### Bank of Canada hikes 25bps at Oct 28, 2026 meeting?

KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H25 · closes 2026-10-28 13:29Z

**Prob:** 39% pre-market → 38% final. Ask 38¢ = model; no bet and under the 40¢ floor regardless.

**Entry context (live, Sep 18 16:10Z):** YES 37/38¢ · YES ask 38¢ · vol24h 526 · OI 27,200

**Precedents consulted:** Same rows as H0. SEP-H0 edge note already recorded that the paper-edge side of this ladder sat under the 40¢ floor throughout Sep 2–17; still true.
Primary-source diligence:
- Same source set as H0; the >25bp leg (H26) is 0/1¢ and both cut legs 0/1¢ — the ladder is a clean two-outcome {hold, +25} split, as every BoC/Fed precedent row predicts.

**Reject reason:** <40¢ band (tails 0-for-8 lifetime); P(hike) 38% = YES ask 38¢ — zero edge; cluster runner-up to H0

Tier 2corporate-eventREJECT — NO sidecluster: anthropic-ipo-timing

### Anthropic confirms IPO before Oct 17, 2026?

KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT17 · closes 2026-10-17 03:59Z

**Prob:** 95% NO pre-market → 95% final. Not eligible as a new pick.

**Entry context (live, Sep 18 16:10Z):** YES 4/8¢ · NO ask 96¢ · vol24h 1,292 · OI 19,684

**Precedents consulted:** KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26JUL01 (NO), KXIPO-26-SPACEX (settled on pricing).
Primary-source diligence:
- EDGAR FTS Sep 18: no Anthropic S-1. Polymarket 'IPO by Oct 15' 1.65%.

**Reject reason:** already an active pick (EXISTING_PICKS, NO from Sep 9 @71¢); now also deep-favorite band (NO ask 96¢). Thesis intact: no public S-1 on EDGAR as of Sep 18, roadshow mid-October at earliest.

## Stage 3.5–4 — Portfolio tables

### Position sizes and limits

| Ticker | Side | Limit | Contracts | Cost | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No positions. Cash $2,500 (100%). Reserve requirement (≥10%) trivially met. |  |  |  |  |  |

### EV for the record

| Ticker | Model P(side) | Price | Edge ¢ | EV % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXDJTATTACKWARSH-26SEP-26NOV01 | 76% (NO) | 81¢ | -5 | -6.2% (not deployed) |
| KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26NOV01 | 49% (NO) | 48¢ | +1 | +2.1% (not deployed) |
| KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26NOV01 | 94% (NO) | 90¢ | +4 | +4.4% (not deployed) |
| KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H0 | 61% (YES) | 63¢ | -2 | -3.2% (not deployed) |
| KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H25 | 38% (YES) | 38¢ | +0 | +0.0% (not deployed) |
| KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT17 | 95% (NO) | 96¢ | -1 | -1.0% (not deployed) |

Every line is a shadow-tracked reject. Positive-looking rows (Tesla/SpaceX NO +4, Anthropic NOV01 NO +1) are barred by band rules, not by EV — that is the design: EV-agnostic sizing, band-gated entry.

### Cluster table (one leg per cluster)

| Cluster | Legs surviving Stage 0 | Best leg | Deployed |
|---|---|---|---|
| trump-warsh-criticism | NOV01 (OCT01 cut at Stage 0) | NOV01 NO @81 | no — inside spread |
| anthropic-ipo-timing | NOV01, OCT17 (OCT01/OCT10/OCT24 cut) | NOV01 NO @48 | no — 40–59¢ band needs Tier-1 + HIGH; existing live NO legs OCT01/OCT17 |
| tesla-spacex-merger | NOV01 | NOV01 NO @90 | no — ≥90¢ band |
| boc-oct28-decision | H0, H25 | H0 YES @63 | no — inside spread; H25 is the runner-up |

### Conviction exposure

| Conviction | Picks | Cost | % of capital |
|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | 0 | $0 | 0% |
| MEDIUM | 0 | $0 | 0% |
| Cash | — | $2,500 | 100% |

### Risk profile

Max loss $0. No correlated theses. Live prior picks (not re-underwritten here) remain: NO on Anthropic IPO OCT01/OCT17, NO on crypto market-structure bill, NO on FISA 702, NO on Hormuz normalization, YES on Suez weekly >270. Nothing in this run adds to those clusters.

### Execution notes

- Nothing to execute. If the Warsh NOV01 NO ask drifts to ≤75¢ with no Warsh-directed remark, it re-enters the core band with ~1 pt of edge — still not enough; a real trigger would be a dated resolver clarification narrowing 'clear contextual reference'.
- Anthropic NOV01: a public S-1 flip dated before Sep 30 with a stated roadshow start ≤ Oct 19 would move P(YES) toward 65%; a flip after Oct 5 moves it toward 30%. Either would be a legitimate re-look — but the 40–59¢ band stays closed to a Tier-2 archetype regardless.
- Bank of Canada: re-check after the Oct 19 Business Outlook Survey and Oct 20 CPI; the H0 leg is the only side that can reach the 60–84¢ band with edge (it would need core CPI-trim/median to stay ≤2.0% while OIS holds a hike).

## Reject log

| Ticker | Archetype | Side | Price | Model P | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXDJTATTACKWARSH-26SEP-26NOV01 | multi-news-other | NO | 81¢ | 76% | inside spread: P(NO) 76% vs NO ask 81¢ — no edge; YES side is a <40¢ tail; resolver bar ('disapproval directed at Warsh by name/title') is discretionary |
| KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26NOV01 | corporate-event | NO | 48¢ | 49% | 40–59¢ band requires HIGH conviction AND a Tier-1 process archetype (this is Tier-2 corporate-event); 1-pt paper edge vs Polymarket-parity book is noise; cluster already carries live NO legs (OCT01, OCT17) |
| KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26NOV01 | corporate-event | NO | 90¢ | 94% | deep-favorite band: NO ask 90¢ (≥90¢ reject); YES side is a <40¢ tail |
| KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H0 | scheduled-process | YES | 63¢ | 61% | inside spread: P(hold) 61% vs YES ask 63¢ — no edge over an OIS-tracking book; no informational advantage over swaps on a macro coin flip |
| KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H25 | scheduled-process | YES | 38¢ | 38% | <40¢ band (tails 0-for-8 lifetime); P(hike) 38% = YES ask 38¢ — zero edge; cluster runner-up to H0 |
| KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT17 | corporate-event | NO | 96¢ | 95% | already an active pick (EXISTING_PICKS, NO from Sep 9 @71¢); now also deep-favorite band (NO ask 96¢). Thesis intact: no public S-1 on EDGAR as of Sep 18, roadshow mid-October at earliest. |
| KXSANCTIONRUSSIA-26JUL-NOV | confirmation/enact | — | 98¢ | — | Stage-0: YES bid 98¢ ≥ 95¢ — deep-favorite; nothing to buy on either side |
| KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26OCT | scheduled-process | — | 1¢ | — | Stage-0: YES ask 1¢ ≤ 5¢ (NO would be 99–100¢) |
| KXDJTATTACKWARSH-26SEP-26OCT01 | multi-news-other | — | 5¢ | — | Stage-0: YES ask 5¢ ≤ 5¢; NO 95–97¢ deep favorite |
| KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26OCT01 | corporate-event | — | 3¢ | — | Stage-0: YES ask 3¢ ≤ 5¢ |
| KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT01 | corporate-event | — | 1¢ | — | Stage-0: already an active pick (NO); YES ask 1¢ |
| KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT24 | corporate-event | — | 31¢ | — | Stage-0: vol24h 362 < 500; spread 14¢ > 5¢ |
| KXHEGSETHOUT-26AUG-26NOV01 | multi-news-other | — | 12¢ | — | Stage-0: close after expiration (close Nov 1, expected_expiration Oct 1) |
| KXHEGSETHOUT-26AUG-26OCT01 | multi-news-other | — | 4¢ | — | Stage-0: YES ask 4¢ ≤ 5¢ |
| KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-HOLD | scheduled-process | — | 97¢ | — | Stage-0: YES bid 96¢ ≥ 95¢ |
| KXKASHOUT-26JUL-26NOV01 | departure/ouster | — | 9¢ | — | Stage-0: vol24h 50 < 500 (Tier-1, but zero-volume books had negative edge in the resolved record) |
| KXARRESTNETANYAHU-28JAN01-26NOV01 | legal-action | — | 6¢ | — | Stage-0: vol24h 188 < 500 |
| KXRETIREMM-26 | departure/ouster | — | 5¢ | — | Stage-0: closes Nov 3 — 1 day beyond the 45-day horizon; YES ask 5¢ would cut it anyway |

## Precedent writeback

Two rows written to /tmp/out/precedents.json: (1) KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26SEP-H25 — Sep 18 re-verification of the post-hold OIS convergence path and the sell-side hold consensus; (2) KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26SEP01 — Sep 18 EDGAR re-check (still no Anthropic S-1) and Kalshi/Polymarket parity on the NOV01 rung after the Sep 13 repricing.

## Method notes

- Probabilities were committed after rules + precedents + primary sources and before opening orderbooks or candlesticks; pre-market and final numbers are shown on every card.
- Live quotes from the Kalshi public API *_dollars/*_fp fields; 14-day history from the candlesticks endpoint; resolver bar from rules_secondary and the resolution_precedents store (172 rows; 12 for the BoC ladder, 4 for IPO-confirmation markets, none for KXDJTATTACKWARSH).
- Universe: targets.json generated 2026-09-18 16:07Z, min OI 5,000. Nothing outside the allowlist was researched.

Generated by Keel v4 · claude-fable-5-1 · not investment advice.