Original thesis. Section 702 lapsed in mid-June and has stayed lapsed for two months; the House can't pass a rule on it, and the crowded September floor (appropriations + CLARITY) leaves ~13 working days for a deal that has failed since April.
Sentinel. Thesis holds and has strengthened: the FY27 stopgap (H.R. CR through Dec 11) cleared the Senate 90-6 in July and the House 370-48 on Sep 1 with only OMB-grant and Border Patrol riders and no Section 702 language (Nextgov, Sep 1), which removes the CR-rider tail we priced as the cleanest YES path. 702 remains lapsed since Jun 15 (Brennan Center), nothing 702-related is on the House floor schedule for Sep 14-17 (majorityleader.gov), and the Senate's last legislative day before the midterm recess is Oct 2 (Liberty Nation, Sep 14). I put NO at ~97%; the market bids 98. Capital-free rule applies with 14 days to close: the last 2c is not worth two weeks of lockup plus a tail on a surprise unanimous-consent short extension. Liquidity note: top of book is thin (about 133 contracts at 98c, then ~500 at 97c) so a larger position will fill nearer 97.
Evidence: Nextgov: House passes stopgap (Sep 1) · Liberty Nation: Senate returns, leaves Oct 2 (Sep 14) · House floor schedule Sep 14–17 · Brennan Center 702 resource page · original audit
Original thesis. Prob: 88% pre-market -> 86% final (blended toward a liquid book at ~80 NO). Resolution is strictly mechanical: YES requires SEC declaring the S-1 effective, a priced offering, or an exchange-assigned ticker before Oct 1 03:59Z. Precedent: KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26JUL01 resolved NO — the Jun 1 confident
Sentinel. Thesis intact and reinforced: Reuters (via CNBC, Sep 5; PYMNTS, Sep 6) reports Anthropic's public S-1 slipped to late September with the roadshow mid-October at the earliest and pricing days before the November midterms, and EDGAR company search on Sep 17 still shows no Anthropic registrant or S-1 filing. None of the three YES triggers (S-1 effectiveness, pricing, exchange-assigned ticker) can plausibly occur before Oct 1 03:59Z on that calendar. Residual risk is only a loose resolver reading if the late-September public flip discloses a proposed Nasdaq symbol; the SpaceX precedent says that did not settle, so I put NO at ~96%. Market bids 99 with 52k contracts of depth; 1c of upside over 14 days against a 3-4% resolver tail is a clear capital-free exit.
Evidence: CNBC/Reuters: IPO launch shifts to mid-Oct (Sep 5) · PYMNTS: public S-1 late Sept, roadshow mid-Oct (Sep 6) · EDGAR company search: no Anthropic registrant · original audit
Original thesis. The Senate's first CLARITY Act floor vote is scheduled Sept 15; cloture, amendments, final passage, House concurrence and signature cannot all realistically clear by Sep 30 while appropriations consume the floor.
Sentinel. Thesis confirmed by events: the Senate cloture vote on the motion to proceed to H.R. 3633 (CLARITY) failed 46-43 on Sep 15 (CNBC; CoinGape live blog), Sen. Lummis said 'I think we're done. It's over,' and the Senate departs Oct 2 for the midterms. Re-filing cloture, passing the Senate, House concurrence and signature in ~10 working days is not a realistic path, so I put NO at ~99% (the remaining 1% is resolver discretion and a surprise omnibus vehicle). The decision is not thesis-driven but capital efficiency: market bids 99 with ~205k contracts of depth and the market closes in 14 days, so there is 1c left to earn. Per the capital-free rule and the re-entry test (we would not open a 99c NO for two weeks), exit and redeploy.
Evidence: CNBC: CLARITY cloture fails (Sep 15) · CoinGape live blog: 46–43, Lummis 'it's over' · original audit
Original thesis. Strait is blockaded amid an active US-Iran war; from ~1 transit/day, a 7-day average above 60 needs a full peace deal plus weeks of ramp that cannot fit before Oct 1.
Sentinel. Thesis intact and arithmetically locked: IMF PortWatch's latest published day (Sep 13) shows 8 transits vs an ~85/day baseline (straits.live), Kpler counts 3 on Sep 16 and 5 on Sep 17 with a 10-day average of 14 (Time News), and the Omani-brokered Iran-Gulf reopening meeting was postponed indefinitely on Sep 13 (CNN). A 7-day moving average above 60 before Oct 1 would require a full reopening within days and a sustained rate the July ceasefire peak (28/day) never approached. I put NO at ~99% (residual: PortWatch methodology/revision noise). Market bids 99 with ~136k contracts of depth and 14 days to close, so only 1c remains; this is a capital-free exit on efficiency grounds, not a thesis change.
Evidence: straits.live: PortWatch 8 transits Sep 13 · Time News/Kpler: 3 on Sep 16, 5 on Sep 17 · CNN: Iran–Gulf Hormuz talks postponed (Sep 13) · IMF PortWatch Hormuz event page · original audit