Kalshi AI — Mispricing Audit (v4, archetype-targeted)

Report date 2026-09-15 · Keel v4 · category focus: AI (advisory) · horizon 45 days · capital $2,500 · model claude-fable-5-1

Universe120 series902 open markets · 81 in horizon

Stage-0 survivors93 clusters, all Tier 2

Picks27 Stage-2 rejects · 73 Stage-0 cuts

Deployed$210.978.4% of capital

Cash$2,289.0391.6% (reserve ≥10% met)

Efficient-week read. No Tier-1 (departure / legal-action / confirmation) market in the allowlist closes within 45 days with a live book: every Tier-1 leg in horizon is either a zero-volume book or already priced at 0–4¢ / 95¢+. The slate is three Tier-2 clusters. Two legs clear the v4 gates, both on the NO side of a headline-inflated YES; the Bank of Canada October ladder is a genuine coin flip with no sub-40¢ entry allowed. Probabilities were committed to prob_pre_market.json before the orderbooks were opened.

Picks

multi-news-other

fomc-sep16-dissent-count

MEDIUM

Exactly 0 dissenting votes at the Sep 16, 2026 FOMC meeting?

KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-26SEP-0 · closes 2026-09-16T17:59:00Z

BUY NOlimit 65¢live 65¢269 contracts · $174.85 at risk

A first Warsh-era hike with four publicly hesitant voters (Waller, Bowman, Williams, Paulson) is priced at 35% to be unanimous; every named forecast (UBS 10-2, EY 1-2 dissents, JPMAM '2, 1 or 0') and a hold scenario that guarantees hawkish dissents put unanimity nearer 25%.

Rationale. Prob: 24% pre-market -> 28% final (blended toward a 34k-vol/24h book that Polymarket's dissent ladder matches at 34.5%). P(hike) 87% (CME 84-92%, Polymarket 87.5%); given a hike, unanimity needs Waller (Sep 3: 'what's the cost of waiting one meeting?'), Bowman (May 29: hiking on an energy spike is 'unwarranted restraint'), Williams (inflation has peaked) and Paulson (patience) all to fall in; given a hold, Hammack/Kashkari/Logan dissent again as in July (9-3). Resolver risk -1 pt: 'exactly 0 dissenting votes' is a verbatim count from the Fed's implementation note. Cleanest tail: a Kelly-style 'united front' where doves swallow the hike for a 12-0 print. Precedent: KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-26JUL-0 resolved NO with the 0-strike at 21-35c into the decision; the ladder is a whip-countable roster, not a continuous number.

Precedents consulted. KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-26JUL-0 (NO; 0-strike 21–35¢ into decision, 9–3 hold) · KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-26JUL-3 (YES; the established Hammack/Kashkari/Logan bloc was the base case, priced as a tail) · KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-H25 (NO; hawkish repricing vented as dissent, not a move)

YES bid/ask	Depth ≤ limit	Vol 24h	OI	Model prob (side)	Edge	EV/contract
35/36	993	34,053	100,652	72%	7¢	+7.0¢ (10.8%)

Primary sources

CNBC, Sep 14 2026 — 'Counting the votes: Warsh faces a tough battle…' (Waller Sep 3 hold remarks; Barr/Cook open; Williams 'peaked'; Paulson patient; Bowman quiet; Kelly: '2, 1 or no dissents')
Reuters via Yahoo, Sep 14 2026 — 'Fed's table is set for a rate hike' (EY-Parthenon Daco: 'only one or two dissents favoring a hold'; ~90% hike priced)
UBS preview (via search summary) — 10–2 with Waller and Bowman dissenting
CNBC Sep 11 2026 — August CPI 0.4% m/m, core 0.3% (hot); FedWatch hike odds 71%→85%
Polymarket 'How many dissent at the September Fed meeting?' — 0: 34.5%, 1: 22%, 2: 27.5%, 3: 8%, 4+: 6.5% (Sep 15)
Polymarket 'Fed Decision in September' — +25bp 87.5% (Sep 15)

corporate-event

anthropic-ipo-confirm-date

MEDIUM

Anthropic confirms an IPO (S-1 effective, priced, or exchange-assigned ticker) before Oct 17, 2026?

KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT17 · closes 2026-10-17T03:59:00Z

BUY NOlimit 84¢live 79¢43 contracts · $36.12 at risk

No public S-1 exists on EDGAR as of Sep 15; Reuters (Sep 4-5) has the prospectus in late September, marketing mid-October at the earliest and a listing days before Nov 3. The SEC's 15-day public-filing-before-roadshow rule plus a roadshow puts pricing after Oct 17, yet YES trades 21-23c.

Rationale. Prob: 7% pre-market -> 10% final (Polymarket prices 'IPO by Oct 15' at 2%; Kalshi's triggers fire a day before trading, so the comparable is ~4-6%). rules_secondary names exactly three triggers (S-1 effective, priced, exchange-assigned ticker); precedent KXIPO-26-SPACEX shows Kalshi did NOT resolve on the May 20 public S-1 naming 'SPCX' and waited for the Jun 11 pricing, and KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26JUL01/SEP01 both resolved NO on 'filed'-type headlines. Resolver deductions: -2 pts (a Nasdaq symbol reservation being read as 'assigned' after Bloomberg's Sep 13 Nasdaq-venue report), -1 pt (Anthropic compressing to a public S-1 this week and a 15-day-minimum roadshow pricing by Oct 16). Book is thin on the NO side (20 contracts at 79c, 129 at or below 84c), so the limit sits at 84c and size is depth-capped to 43 contracts. Cleanest tail: an accelerated public filing this week followed by a one-week roadshow.

Precedents consulted. KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26SEP01 (NO; clock the ladder off the PUBLIC S-1 + 15-day rule + roadshow) · KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26JUL01 (NO; confidential draft S-1 is none of the three triggers) · KXIPO-26-SPACEX (settled only on the Jun 11 pricing, not the May 20 S-1 naming SPCX)

YES bid/ask	Depth ≤ limit	Vol 24h	OI	Model prob (side)	Edge	EV/contract
21/23	129	1,198	16,251	90%	6¢	+6.0¢ (7.1%)

Primary sources

SEC EDGAR full-text search, Sep 15 2026 — no Anthropic S-1/S-1A/DRS on file (only third-party mentions)
Reuters via CNBC/briefs.co, Sep 4–5 2026 — prospectus slated for late September; pitching 'no earlier than mid-October'; debut days before the Nov 3 midterms; $15bn revolver finalized
Bloomberg, Sep 13 2026 — Anthropic said to choose Nasdaq (venue only; no timeline change)
Kalshi rules_secondary (live) — three triggers: S-1 effective, priced, or exchange-assigned ticker
Polymarket 'Anthropic IPO by ___' — by Oct 15: 2.05%, by Oct 31: 57.5% (Sep 15)

Position sizes and limits

Ticker	Conviction	Cap	Depth ≤ limit → 1/3 cap	Contracts	Limit	Cost (max loss)
KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-26SEP-0	medium	7% = $175	993 → cap 331	269	65¢	$174.85 (7.0%)
KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT17	medium	7% = $175	129 → cap 43	43	84¢	$36.12 (1.4%)
Total deployed						$210.97 (8.4%)
Cash held as a position						$2,289.03 (91.6%)

Sizing is EV-agnostic: MEDIUM = 7% of capital, then depth-capped at one third of the contracts visible at or below the limit in the fetched book. The Anthropic leg is depth-limited (129 contracts at ≤84¢), not conviction-limited.

EV for the record

Ticker	Side	Entry	P(side)	EV / contract	EV %	At risk	Max win
KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-26SEP-0	NO	65¢	72%	+7.0¢	10.8%	$174.85	$94.15
KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT17	NO	84¢	90%	+6.0¢	7.1%	$36.12	$6.88

Clusters (one leg per cluster)

Cluster	Deployed leg	Runner-ups logged as rejects	Archetype
fomc-sep16-dissent-count	KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-26SEP-0 NO @65	-1 (YES 22, band), -2 (inside spread), -3 (band), -4 (deep favorite), -5 (Stage 0)	multi-news-other
anthropic-ipo-confirm-date	KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT17 NO @84	OCT24 (runner-up, 2¢ edge), OCT10 / OCT01 (Stage 0, ask ≤5)	corporate-event
boc-oct28-decision	— none —	H0 (NO 35, band), H25 (YES 33, band), C25/C26/H26 (Stage 0)	scheduled-process

Conviction exposure and risk profile

Conviction	Picks	At risk	Share of capital
HIGH	0	$0.00	0%
MEDIUM	2	$210.97	8.4%
Cash	—	$2,289.03	91.6%

Correlation. The two legs are independent: a Fed vote count on Sep 16 and an SEC/underwriter calendar in October. Worst case (both lose) is a $210.97 loss, 8.4% of capital; best case is $101.03.
Time. FOMC leg settles in ~26 hours (decision 18:00Z Sep 16; trading closes 17:59Z). Anthropic leg ties capital to Oct 17 03:59Z; the SEP01 rung settled NO the same morning it expired.
Single cleanest tail per leg. FOMC: a 'united front' 12–0 hike. Anthropic: a public S-1 this week followed by a 15-day-minimum quiet period and a one-week roadshow that prices by Oct 16 — or Kalshi reading a Nasdaq symbol reservation as an 'assigned ticker' against its own SpaceX handling.
Specialist density. The dissent-count book is the densest in the slate (34k contracts/24h, 100k OI) and Polymarket's parallel ladder agrees with Kalshi within a cent on every strike; the edge claimed here is a roster read, not a data asymmetry, hence MEDIUM at full MEDIUM size and no more.

Execution notes

KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-26SEP-0 NO. Buy NO at 65¢ (= hit the YES bid at 35¢). 993 contracts sit at that level and 1,501 more at 34¢; 269 contracts fill inside the top level. Do not chase above 68¢ (3¢ slippage): fair value on the model is 72¢ and the book has been repricing toward unanimity every session since the Sep 11 CPI (13¢ → 35¢). Nothing new arrives before the 2pm ET decision; blackout began Sep 5.
KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT17 NO. Top-of-book NO ask is 79¢ but only 20 contracts deep (YES bid 21¢ × 20). The limit is set at 84¢ to reach 129 visible contracts (YES bids 21/17/16); take 43 (one third). Prefer resting a NO bid at 80–82¢ and letting the headline-driven YES buyers come to you; the Sep 15 uptick (10/12 → 21/23) followed Bloomberg's Nasdaq-venue report, not a timeline change. Re-check EDGAR daily: a public S-1 before Sep 24 reopens the YES path and should trigger an exit review.
Overlap with prior signals. The signals table already carries live v4 rows on both tickers (OCT17 NO at 71¢ on Sep 8–9; SEP-0 NO at 73¢ on Sep 11). Neither is in $EXISTING_PICKS, so both are eligible here at better prices; the poster should dedupe if that is unintended.
Field contract. picks.json uses flat keys (ticker, limit_price, entry_yes_bid …), whole cents, no nesting.

Stage-2 rejects (side formed)

Ticker	Market	Archetype	Side	Price	Model %	Reason
KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT24	Anthropic confirms an IPO before Oct 24, 2026?	corporate-event	NO	72	26	cluster runner-up: pricing by Oct 23 needs a public S-1 by ~Sep 28 plus a compressed roadshow (Reuters: listing days before Nov 3), fair NO ~74 vs 72 ask; 2c edge is inside the 3c slippage allowance
KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-26SEP-1	Exactly 1 dissenting vote at the Sep 16 FOMC?	multi-news-other	YES	22	33	<40c band: modal leg on my distribution (33%) but a 22c entry is a tail-priced entry (0-for-8 lifetime); also cluster runner-up to the 0-strike NO
KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-26SEP-2	Exactly 2 dissenting votes at the Sep 16 FOMC?	multi-news-other	YES	28	25	inside spread: model 25% sits inside the 26/28 book; UBS's 10-2 call is the market's modal-two story already
KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-26SEP-3	Exactly 3 dissenting votes at the Sep 16 FOMC?	multi-news-other	YES	8	12	<40c band: this is mostly the 13% hold scenario (hawks dissent again) and a tail entry
KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-26SEP-4	Exactly 4 dissenting votes at the Sep 16 FOMC?	multi-news-other	NO	94	4	deep-favorite band: NO at 94c
KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H0	Bank of Canada maintains rate at the Oct 28, 2026 meeting?	scheduled-process	NO	35	55	<40c band and no specific edge: OIS ~49-51% hold after the Sep 14 CPI (headline 3.0%, core 2.0%), most economists hold, Scotia/National call a hike; my 55% hold sits below the 65 bid so the only live side is NO at 35c, a sub-40 entry on a coin flip
KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H25	Bank of Canada hikes 25bps at the Oct 28, 2026 meeting?	scheduled-process	YES	33	42	<40c band: 42% vs 33c ask passes the spread test but is a tail-band entry on a decision the swaps market itself calls 50/50; precedent (JUN/JUL H25) says the guidance text is not the rung

Stage-0 mechanical cuts (in horizon, no side formed)

Hard rules from the resolved record: vol24h < 500, spread > 5¢, YES bid ≥ 95¢ or ask ≤ 5¢, close > 1h after expiration, inside 3h of expiration. 72 of 81 in-horizon markets fell here; notably every Tier-1 leg (KXHOUSEADJOURN-26-26SEP18 at 89/90 missed only on volume, 400 < 500).

Ticker	Market	Archetype	Ask	Reason
KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE-26JAN-OCT	Crypto market-structure bill becomes law before Oct 1, 2026?			already an active pick (also outside v4 universe)
KXALITOANNOUNCERETIRE-26JUN-OCT01	Will Samuel Alito announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before Oct 1, 2026? — Before Oct 1, 2026	departure/ouster	1	Stage 0: vol24<500, yes ask<=5 (bid 0/ask 1, vol24 0)
KXARRESTNETANYAHU-28JAN01-26OCT01	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested before Oct 1, 2026? — Before Oct 1, 2026	legal-action	1	Stage 0: vol24<500, yes ask<=5 (bid 0/ask 1, vol24 468)
KXGALLEGOOUT-26OCT01	Will Ruben Gallego be out as Senator before Oct 1, 2026? — Before Oct 1, 2026	departure/ouster	2	Stage 0: vol24<500, yes ask<=5 (bid 1/ask 2, vol24 0)
KXHOUSEADJOURN-26-26OCT02	Will it be reported by the U.S. House of Representatives that the U.S. House of Representa — Before Oct 2, 202	departure/ouster	100	Stage 0: vol24<500, yes bid>=95 (bid 98/ask 100, vol24 0)
KXHOUSEADJOURN-26-26SEP18	Will it be reported by the U.S. House of Representatives that the U.S. House of Representa — Before Sep 18, 20	departure/ouster	90	Stage 0: vol24<500 (bid 89/ask 90, vol24 400)
KXHOUSEADJOURN-26-26SEP26	Will it be reported by the U.S. House of Representatives that the U.S. House of Representa — Before Sep 26, 20	departure/ouster	99	Stage 0: vol24<500, yes bid>=95 (bid 98/ask 99, vol24 16)
KXKASHOUT-26JUL-26OCT01	Will Kash Patel be out as FBI Director before Oct 1, 2026? — Before Oct 1, 2026	departure/ouster	4	Stage 0: yes ask<=5 (bid 3/ask 4, vol24 1454)
KXLEAVEMILLS-26NOV03-26OCT01	Will Cory Mills be out as Congressman before Oct 1, 2026? — Before Oct 1, 2026	departure/ouster	11	Stage 0: vol24<500 (bid 6/ask 11, vol24 0)
KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26OCT01	Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System be — Before Oct 1, 202	departure/ouster	4	Stage 0: vol24<500, yes ask<=5 (bid 1/ask 4, vol24 0)
KXLOCALLAW-CAAANG-26OCT01	Will the Anaheim Angels naming bill become law? — Yes	confirmation/enact	2	Stage 0: yes ask<=5 (bid 1/ask 2, vol24 936)
KXLOCALLAW-CAJEWISH-26OCT01	Will California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity? — Yes	confirmation/enact	6	Stage 0: vol24<500 (bid 2/ask 6, vol24 0)
KXLUXONOUT-26AUG-26OCT01	Will Christopher Luxon announce their departure as Prime Minister of New Zealand before Oc — Before Oct 1, 202	departure/ouster	4	Stage 0: vol24<500, yes ask<=5 (bid 1/ask 4, vol24 0)
KXMARTINDNCOUT-26MAY-26OCT01	Will Ken Martin be out as chair of the Democratic National Committee before Oct 1, 2026? — Before Oct 1, 2026	departure/ouster	9	Stage 0: vol24<500 (bid 4/ask 9, vol24 0)
KXMCDONALDCONF-26JUN17-OCT01	Will James McDonald be confirmed as U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York be — Before Oct 1, 202	confirmation/enact	4	Stage 0: vol24<500, yes ask<=5 (bid 0/ask 4, vol24 0)
KXNUMAPPROP-26OCT01-AL1	Will the number of the 12 fiscal year 2027 regular appropriations bills that have become l — At least 1	confirmation/enact	5	Stage 0: vol24<500, yes ask<=5 (bid 3/ask 5, vol24 0)
KXNUMAPPROP-26OCT01-AL3	Will the number of the 12 fiscal year 2027 regular appropriations bills that have become l — At least 3	confirmation/enact	4	Stage 0: vol24<500, yes ask<=5 (bid 1/ask 4, vol24 0)
KXNUMAPPROP-26OCT01-AL5	Will the number of the 12 fiscal year 2027 regular appropriations bills that have become l — At least 5	confirmation/enact	3	Stage 0: vol24<500, yes ask<=5 (bid 1/ask 3, vol24 0)
KXPROMISEACT-26AUG-26OCT03	Will legislation that requires the Social Security Advisory Board to develop legislative r — Before Oct 3, 202	confirmation/enact	1	Stage 0: vol24<500, yes ask<=5 (bid 0/ask 1, vol24 0)
KXRECNCH-27-OCT01	Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before January 01, 2027? — Before Oct 1, 2026	confirmation/enact	1	Stage 0: vol24<500, yes ask<=5 (bid 0/ask 1, vol24 0)
KXZELENSKYYOUT-26OCT01	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy leave President of Ukraine before Oct 1, 2026? — Before Oct 1, 2026	departure/ouster	1	Stage 0: vol24<500, yes ask<=5 (bid 0/ask 1, vol24 0)
KXAGICO-COMP-26Q3	Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) befor — Before Oct 1, 202	multi-news-other	4	Stage 0: yes ask<=5 (bid 3/ask 4, vol24 647)
KXCBDCZECH-26SEP17-C25	Will the Czech National Bank Cut 25bps at the September Bank Board monetary policy meeting — Cut 25bps	scheduled-process	2	Stage 0: vol24<500, yes ask<=5 (bid 0/ask 2, vol24 0)
KXCBDCZECH-26SEP17-C50	Will the Czech National Bank Cut 50bps at the September Bank Board monetary policy meeting — Cut 50bps	scheduled-process	1	Stage 0: vol24<500, yes ask<=5 (bid 0/ask 1, vol24 0)
KXCBDCZECH-26SEP17-C50P	Will the Czech National Bank Cut more than 50bps at the September Bank Board monetary poli — Cut more than 50b	scheduled-process	1	Stage 0: vol24<500, yes ask<=5 (bid 0/ask 1, vol24 0)
KXCBDCZECH-26SEP17-H25P	Will the Czech National Bank Hike 25bps at the September Bank Board monetary policy meetin — Hike 25bps	scheduled-process	2	Stage 0: vol24<500, yes ask<=5 (bid 1/ask 2, vol24 71)
KXCBDCZECH-26SEP17-H50	Will the Czech National Bank Hike 50bps at the September Bank Board monetary policy meetin — Hike 50bps	scheduled-process	1	Stage 0: vol24<500, yes ask<=5 (bid 0/ask 1, vol24 0)
KXCBDCZECH-26SEP17-H50P	Will the Czech National Bank Hike more than 50bps at the September Bank Board monetary pol — Hike more than 50	scheduled-process	1	Stage 0: vol24<500, yes ask<=5 (bid 0/ask 1, vol24 0)
KXCBDCZECH-26SEP17-HOLD	Will the Czech National Bank Maintain current rate at the September Bank Board monetary po — Maintain current	scheduled-process	99	Stage 0: vol24<500, yes bid>=95 (bid 98/ask 99, vol24 0)
KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-C25	Will Bank of Canada Cut rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting? — Cut 25bps	scheduled-process	4	Stage 0: vol24<500, yes ask<=5 (bid 0/ask 4, vol24 2)
KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-C26	Will Bank of Canada Cut rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting? — Cut >25bps	scheduled-process	1	Stage 0: vol24<500, yes ask<=5 (bid 0/ask 1, vol24 33)
KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H26	Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting? — Hike >25bps	scheduled-process	4	Stage 0: vol24<500, yes ask<=5 (bid 0/ask 4, vol24 35)
KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26OCT29-C25	Will the Bank of Japan Cut 25bps at the October 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting? — Cut 25bps	scheduled-process	2	Stage 0: vol24<500, yes ask<=5 (bid 1/ask 2, vol24 0)
KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26OCT29-C25P	Will the Bank of Japan Cut more than 25bps at the October 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting? — Cut more than 25bps	scheduled-process	5	Stage 0: vol24<500, yes ask<=5 (bid 1/ask 5, vol24 0)
KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26OCT29-H25	Will the Bank of Japan Hike 25bps at the October 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting? — Hike 25bps	scheduled-process	18	Stage 0: vol24<500, spread>5 (bid 7/ask 18, vol24 0)
KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26OCT29-H25P	Will the Bank of Japan Hike more than 25bps at the October 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting? — Hike more than 25bp	scheduled-process	2	Stage 0: vol24<500, yes ask<=5 (bid 1/ask 2, vol24 0)
KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26OCT29-HOLD	Will the Bank of Japan Maintain current rate at the October 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting? — Maintain current r	scheduled-process	90	Stage 0: vol24<500, spread>5 (bid 80/ask 90, vol24 0)
KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-C25	Will the Bank of Japan Cut 25bps at the September 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting? — Cut 25bps	scheduled-process	1	Stage 0: vol24<500, yes ask<=5 (bid 0/ask 1, vol24 0)
KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-C25P	Will the Bank of Japan Cut more than 25bps at the September 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting? — Cut more than 25bp	scheduled-process	1	Stage 0: vol24<500, yes ask<=5 (bid 0/ask 1, vol24 0)
KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-H25	Will the Bank of Japan Hike 25bps at the September 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting? — Hike 25bps	scheduled-process	98	Stage 0: yes bid>=95 (bid 97/ask 98, vol24 524)
KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-H25P	Will the Bank of Japan Hike more than 25bps at the September 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting? — Hike more than 25	scheduled-process	2	Stage 0: yes ask<=5 (bid 1/ask 2, vol24 4176)
KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-HOLD	Will the Bank of Japan Maintain current rate at the September 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting — Maintain current	scheduled-process	2	Stage 0: yes ask<=5 (bid 1/ask 2, vol24 1485)
KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-C25	Will the Bank of Mexico Cut 25bps at the September Governing Board meeting? — Cut 25bps	scheduled-process	3	Stage 0: vol24<500, yes ask<=5 (bid 0/ask 3, vol24 0)
KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-C50	Will the Bank of Mexico Cut 50bps at the September Governing Board meeting? — Cut 50bps	scheduled-process	5	Stage 0: vol24<500, yes ask<=5 (bid 0/ask 5, vol24 0)
KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-C50P	Will the Bank of Mexico Cut more than 50bps at the September Governing Board meeting? — Cut more than 50bps	scheduled-process	2	Stage 0: vol24<500, yes ask<=5 (bid 0/ask 2, vol24 0)
KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-H25P	Will the Bank of Mexico Hike 25bps at the September Governing Board meeting? — Hike 25bps	scheduled-process	11	Stage 0: vol24<500, spread>5 (bid 0/ask 11, vol24 0)
KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-H50	Will the Bank of Mexico Hike 50bps at the September Governing Board meeting? — Hike 50bps	scheduled-process	1	Stage 0: vol24<500, yes ask<=5 (bid 0/ask 1, vol24 61)
KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-H50P	Will the Bank of Mexico Hike more than 50bps at the September Governing Board meeting? — Hike more than 50bps	scheduled-process	1	Stage 0: vol24<500, yes ask<=5 (bid 0/ask 1, vol24 0)
KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-HOLD	Will the Bank of Mexico Maintain current rate at the September Governing Board meeting? — Maintain current rat	scheduled-process	95	Stage 0: vol24<500 (bid 93/ask 95, vol24 4)
KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26OCT01	Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, — Before Oct 1, 202	corporate-event	3	Stage 0: yes ask<=5 (bid 1/ask 3, vol24 6392)
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-ANG	Will a human case of Ebola disease in Angola be reported before Oct 1, 2026? — Angola	multi-news-other	7	Stage 0: vol24<500 (bid 2/ask 7, vol24 183)
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-BUR	Will a human case of Ebola disease in Burundi be reported before Oct 1, 2026? — Burundi	multi-news-other	10	Stage 0: vol24<500, spread>5 (bid 2/ask 10, vol24 187)
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-CANA	Will a human case of Ebola disease in Canada be reported before Oct 1, 2026? — Canada	multi-news-other	9	Stage 0: vol24<500, spread>5 (bid 2/ask 9, vol24 183)
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-CAR	Will a human case of Ebola disease in Central African Republic be reported before Oct 1, 2 — Central African R	multi-news-other	9	Stage 0: vol24<500, spread>5 (bid 2/ask 9, vol24 283)
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-CHI	Will a human case of Ebola disease in China be reported before Oct 1, 2026? — China	multi-news-other	6	Stage 0: vol24<500, spread>5 (bid 0/ask 6, vol24 0)
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-ETHI	Will a human case of Ebola disease in Ethiopia be reported before Oct 1, 2026? — Ethiopia	multi-news-other	10	Stage 0: vol24<500, spread>5 (bid 3/ask 10, vol24 5)
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-IND	Will a human case of Ebola disease in India be reported before Oct 1, 2026? — India	multi-news-other	7	Stage 0: vol24<500 (bid 4/ask 7, vol24 269)
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-KEN	Will a human case of Ebola disease in Kenya be reported before Oct 1, 2026? — Kenya	multi-news-other	12	Stage 0: vol24<500, spread>5 (bid 4/ask 12, vol24 0)
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-NIGE	Will a human case of Ebola disease in Nigeria be reported before Oct 1, 2026? — Nigeria	multi-news-other	9	Stage 0: vol24<500, spread>5 (bid 3/ask 9, vol24 185)
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-RCON	Will a human case of Ebola disease in Republic of the Congo be reported before Oct 1, 2026 — Republic of the C	multi-news-other	7	Stage 0: vol24<500, spread>5 (bid 0/ask 7, vol24 131)
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-RWA	Will a human case of Ebola disease in Rwanda be reported before Oct 1, 2026? — Rwanda	multi-news-other	12	Stage 0: vol24<500, spread>5 (bid 5/ask 12, vol24 212)
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-SOM	Will a human case of Ebola disease in Somalia be reported before Oct 1, 2026? — Somalia	multi-news-other	9	Stage 0: vol24<500, spread>5 (bid 0/ask 9, vol24 5)
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-SUD	Will a human case of Ebola disease in South Sudan be reported before Oct 1, 2026? — South Sudan	multi-news-other	8	Stage 0: vol24<500, spread>5 (bid 2/ask 8, vol24 183)
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-TANZ	Will a human case of Ebola disease in Tanzania be reported before Oct 1, 2026? — Tanzania	multi-news-other	7	Stage 0: vol24<500 (bid 2/ask 7, vol24 183)
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-USA	Will a human case of Ebola disease in United States be reported before Oct 1, 2026? — United States	multi-news-other	6	Stage 0: vol24<500 (bid 2/ask 6, vol24 185)
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-ZAMB	Will a human case of Ebola disease in Zambia be reported before Oct 1, 2026? — Zambia	multi-news-other	11	Stage 0: vol24<500, spread>5 (bid 3/ask 11, vol24 5)
KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-26SEP-5	How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting? — 5	multi-news-other	5	Stage 0: yes ask<=5 (bid 4/ask 5, vol24 4740)
KXHEGSETHOUT-26AUG-26OCT01	Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Oct 1, 2026? — Before Oct 1, 2026	multi-news-other	3	Stage 0: yes ask<=5 (bid 2/ask 3, vol24 684)
KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT01	When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? — Before Oct 1, 2026	corporate-event	2	Stage 0: yes ask<=5 (bid 1/ask 2, vol24 31624)
KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT10	When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? — Before Oct 10, 2026	corporate-event	4	Stage 0: yes ask<=5 (bid 0/ask 4, vol24 1004)
KXIPOOPENAI-26OCT01	When will OpenAI IPO? — Before Oct 1, 2026	corporate-event	1	Stage 0: vol24<500, yes ask<=5 (bid 0/ask 1, vol24 0)
KXIPOSTARLINK-26OCT01	When will Starlink IPO? — Before Oct 1, 2026	corporate-event	1	Stage 0: vol24<500, yes ask<=5 (bid 0/ask 1, vol24 0)
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26OCT	Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? — Before Oct 1, 2026	scheduled-process	2	Stage 0: vol24<500, yes ask<=5 (bid 0/ask 2, vol24 36)

Precedent writeback

Two rows written to /tmp/out/precedents.json: the Sep 2, 2026 Bank of Canada hold (KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26SEP-H0: a hawkish hold reprices the next ladder, not the settling one) and a re-verification of KXIPO-26-SPACEX against the SpaceX pricing release and the May 20 S-1 (proposed symbol ≠ assigned ticker; venue-choice headlines are non-events).

Method

Stage 0 read targets.json (120 series, min OI 5,000) and pulled 902 open markets from the Kalshi public API (*_fp/*_dollars fields). Stage 1 queried resolution_precedents by series and archetype (160 rows; 2 FOMC-dissent, 3 Anthropic-IPO, 10 BoC, 1 KXIPO). Stage 2 read rules_primary/rules_secondary live, ran primary-source diligence (EDGAR full-text, Reuters/Bloomberg/CNBC via syndication, Fed and BoC releases, StatCan CPI), committed pre-market probabilities to file, then opened orderbooks and 14-day hourly candlesticks (/series/{series}/markets/{ticker}/candlesticks). Stage 3 applied the book-derived no-trade band, continuous-number screen, underspecified-rules screen, 48h move check and 3¢ slippage rule; Stage 3.5 the 40–84¢ core band; Stage 4 one leg per cluster with EV-agnostic caps and a one-third depth cap.