1 pick triggered · 1 exit · 0 hold · 0 skip · packet: live 6, cooldown 3, quiet 2
Will legislation that reauthorizes FISA Section 702 authority become law before Oct 1, 2026?KXFISAEXTEND-26JUN-26OCT01
NO
capital_free
thesis intact
EXIT @ 95¢
Now (NO bid)
95¢ (+26¢, +37.7%)
Live YES quotes
bid 3¢ / ask 5¢
Depth at 95¢
~1,496 contracts
Analyst prob → Sentinel
80% → 96%
Market-implied NO
~96% (mid)
Closes
2026-10-01 14:00Z (18d)
marks (NO side-mid, 08-28→09-12): 84.5 82 82 82 87 87.5 91.5 91.5 99 99 99 97 99 99 99 99 99 99 94 96 · live 96 mid
Original thesis: Section 702 lapsed mid-June and has stayed lapsed; the House can't pass a rule on it, and the crowded September floor leaves ~13 working days for a deal that has failed since April. Priced tail: a 702 rider on the September CR.
What changed: nothing on 702 itself, and the one priced tail closed. The September stopgap, H.R. 6500 (Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act, 2027), passed the Senate 90-6 and House 370-48 and was signed Sept 3. The enrolled text contains zero FISA / Section 702 language (grepped the govinfo HTML directly). Funding is now settled through Dec 11, so there is no must-pass vehicle left before Oct 1.
Evidence checked:
- House Majority Leader floor schedule, week of Sept 14–17: ~80 measures, no FISA or intelligence bill.
- Brennan Center 702 tracker: last dated development July 29 (coalition letter); no August or September legislative movement.
- Sept 11 commentary still describes the status quo as the June 11 198-218 failed extension, with no negotiations or new bill mentioned.
- The blockers that produced the lapse are unresolved: Democrats' Pulte objection and Trump's SAVE Act linkage. Existing FISC certifications run to ~March 2027, so there is no operational urgency forcing a September deal.
Decision: exit at 95¢. Verdict is intact and my probability (96%) is marginally above the market, but the trigger is capital_free with 18 days to close, well past the ~7-day carve-out. Expected value of holding is ~96.5¢ versus 95¢ executable now: roughly 1.5¢ for 18 days of locked capital plus a non-zero tail that leadership jams a clean short-term extension through in the final September week (the House did pass exactly such extensions in April). Tiebreak: I would not buy NO at 95¢ today. Liquidity is fine: ~1,500 contracts resting at 95¢, a further 3,000 at 92¢. The Sept 11 dip to 94 mid had no matching news and looks like book noise.