# Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit (v4, archetype-targeted)

Date: 2026-09-11
Source: https://kalshi-audits.pages.dev/2026-09-11-kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit-v4

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# Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit (v4, archetype-targeted)

Report date 2026-09-11 · Keel v4 · Capital $2,500 · Horizon 45 days · Universe: targets.json (120 series, Tier 1–2) · Existing pick excluded: KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE-26JAN-OCT

## 1. Summary

**Two picks, $296 deployed (11.8% of capital), $2,204 (88%) held in cash.** A thin week: 899 open markets across the 117 reachable target series, only 71 close inside the 45-day horizon, and the live-book liquidity floor (vol24h ≥ 500) plus spread/tail cuts left 9 mechanical survivors, none of them Tier 1 at a tradeable price. Both picks are NO-side carries in the 60–84¢ core band on Tier-2 archetypes, each anchored on a named precedent from the store.

- **NO · 0 dissents at the Sep 16 FOMC** (limit 73¢, 166 contracts). The rung ran 13¢→30¢ today on the August CPI; a unanimous vote still needs either a Warsh hike that Waller and Williams swallow or a hold the three July hawks accept.
- **NO · Anthropic confirms IPO before Oct 17** (limit 72¢, 243 contracts). No public S-1 on EDGAR; Reuters puts the roadshow at mid-October earliest, so the SEC's 15-day clock rules out a pre-Oct-17 pricing on the reported schedule.

Headline reject to shadow-track: KXLOCALLAW-CAJEWISH-26OCT01 (SB 1387, Jewish identity as an ethnicity in state data) passed 62-0 / 38-0, was presented to Gov. Newsom on Sep 9 with a Sep 30 deadline, and trades at 6/9¢. We put P(enacted before Oct 1) near 70%. It is logged as a reject because YES at 9¢ is below the 40¢ band (tails 0-for-8 lifetime) — if that rule is wrong, this is the market that will say so.

Disclosure: this audit is produced by an Anthropic model. The Anthropic IPO thesis uses only public reporting, the SEC EDGAR full-text index and the precedent store; no non-public information is involved.

## 2. Stage 0 — Universe and mechanical cuts

| Step | Count |
|---|---|
| Open markets in target series (Kalshi API, 117/120 series reachable) | 899 |
| Closing within 45 days | 71 |
| Cut: vol24h < 500 (live) | 54 |
| Cut: YES ask ≤ 5¢ / YES bid ≥ 95¢ / spread > 5¢ | 4 |
| Cut: Mentions / close-after-expiration / inside 3h halt / existing pick | 0 |
| **Stage-2 candidates** | **9** (KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT ×4, KXIPOANTHROPIC ×2, KXLOCALLAW, KXHEGSETHOUT, KXAGICO) |

Every Tier-1 market inside the horizon (Kash Patel, Alito, Powell-governor, Zelenskyy, Netanyahu arrest, McDonald confirmation, NUMAPPROP, PROMISE Act, House adjournment rungs) failed the live volume floor — most at 0 contracts in 24h. Per v4 they are mechanical rejects, not research targets. Category focus was Politics; both picks are Politics-filed Tier-2 series.

## 3. Picks

NOmulti-news-otherMEDIUM convictioncluster: fomc-sep26-dissent-count

### Exactly 0 dissenting votes at the Sep 16, 2026 FOMC meeting?

KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-26SEP-0 · closes 2026-09-16T17:59:00Z

**Thesis.** A unanimous vote needs a Warsh hike that Waller (on record Sep 3 leaning hold) and Williams swallow, or a hold the three July hawks accept; both paths are the tail, not the 30¢ base case the post-CPI surge priced.

Side / limitNO @ 73¢Live NO ask70¢Model prob (YES)22% → P(NO) 78%Edge at limit5¢ (6.8% EV)Contracts166Max loss$121.18 (4.8%)
Entry YES bid/ask30/31¢Depth ≤ limit498Vol 24h28,952Open interest70,751

**Rationale.** Prob: 17% pre-market → 22% final (blended toward a 28k-contract book). The 0-strike ran 13¢→30¢ today after August CPI (3.4% headline, core down to 2.4%) pushed FedWatch hike odds to ~71%; but a hike still faces Waller, who said Sep 3 he would be 'inclined' to hold if inflation cools (core did), and Williams, who wanted more evidence, while a hold re-runs July's 9-3 with Hammack/Kashkari/Logan dissenting. Precedent KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-26JUL-0 resolved NO — 'a unanimous vote is the tail whenever named dissenters have not publicly changed position'; NO at 65-79¢ was that ladder's cleanest carry. Cleanest tail risk: a Warsh-led 25bp hike that every dove signs, which is roughly the one-in-five path the pre-market number already prices. Resolver deduction 0 pts (count of dissents is verbatim in the Fed statement).

**Precedents consulted:** KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-26JUL-0 (NO), KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-26JUL-3 (YES), KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-H25 (NO: hawkish repricing into a live FOMC vented as dissent, not a move)

**14-day YES price (daily close):** 08-28 **19¢** 08-30 **16¢** 09-01 **15¢** 09-02 **17¢** 09-03 **11¢** 09-04 **12¢** 09-06 **14¢** 09-09 **12¢** 09-10 **13¢** 09-11 **30¢**

NOcorporate-eventMEDIUM convictioncluster: anthropic-ipo-confirm-date

### Anthropic confirms an IPO (S-1 effective / priced / ticker assigned) before Oct 17, 2026?

KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT17 · closes 2026-10-17T03:59:00Z

**Thesis.** No public S-1 exists on EDGAR as of Sep 11; Reuters (Sep 4) puts the public filing in late September and the roadshow mid-October at the earliest, so none of the three resolution triggers can plausibly fire before Oct 17 — yet the rung still carries 28¢ of post-headline residue.

Side / limitNO @ 72¢Live NO ask72¢Model prob (YES)12% → P(NO) 88%Edge at limit16¢ (22.2% EV)Contracts243Max loss$174.96 (7.0%)
Entry YES bid/ask28/29¢Depth ≤ limit7,560Vol 24h703Open interest6,822

**Rationale.** Prob: 9% pre-market → 12% final (a 7,560-contract YES bid at 28¢ says someone disagrees; Polymarket prices 'trading by Oct 15' at 5%). Mechanics: the SEC requires the public S-1 at least 15 days before the roadshow, and pricing follows a ~1-week roadshow, so a pre-Oct-17 pricing needs a public filing by ~Sep 24 plus a compressed schedule, against a company plan (Reuters, Sep 4; Forbes, Sep 7) of a listing 'days before the Nov 3 midterms' after a $15bn revolver. Precedents: KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26JUL01 and -26SEP01 both NO ('filed' and 'confirmed' are months apart); KXIPO-26-SPACEX shows Kalshi did not treat a proposed symbol in a public S-1 as an assigned ticker. Cleanest tail: an exchange formally assigning a ticker ahead of pricing — deducted 4 pts in the final number. Disclosure: this audit runs on an Anthropic model; the thesis rests solely on public reporting, EDGAR and the precedent store.

**Precedents consulted:** KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26JUL01 (NO), KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26SEP01 (NO), KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26JUN01 (NO), KXIPO-26-SPACEX (YES only at pricing)

**14-day YES price (daily close):** 09-04 **77¢** 09-05 **48¢** 09-06 **30¢** 09-07 **30¢** 09-08 **30¢** 09-09 **29¢** 09-10 **32¢** 09-11 **29¢**

## 4. Resolver profiles and risk pricing

### KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT — resolver: Kalshi, off the FOMC statement's vote line

Rules: "exactly N dissenting votes at the next scheduled FOMC meeting (Sep 16, 2026)". The statement names every dissenter and their preferred action; there is no discretion. Precedent rows (JUL-0 NO, JUL-3 YES) settled at the 18:00Z expiration on the statement. **Deduction: 0 pts.** The only risk is forecast risk: the roster is Warsh, Powell, Jefferson, Barr, Bowman, Cook, Waller, Williams, Hammack, Kashkari, Logan, Paulson. Scenario tree used: hike ~60% (FedWatch 71% on Sep 11, discounted per KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-H25 where a 38% hike repricing resolved as dissents inside a hold) with P(0 dissents | hike) ≈ 20% given Waller's Sep 3 hold lean and Williams's 'more evidence' line; hold ~40% with P(0 | hold) ≈ 10% (June's 12-0 shows the hawks can fall in line behind strong guidance). Pre-market 17%; final 22%.

### KXIPOANTHROPIC — resolver: Kalshi, on three mechanical triggers

rules_secondary (live, verbatim): "An IPO is confirmed if 1) the SEC declares the company's Form S-1 effective OR 2) the IPO is priced OR 3) a securities exchange has assigned a ticker to it." No dated clarification appended. Precedent KXIPO-26-SPACEX: a public S-1 naming 'SPCX' did not resolve the market; settlement waited for effectiveness/pricing on Jun 11. Precedents JUL01/SEP01: confidential filing and company press releases carried zero weight. **Deduction: 4 pts** for the residual chance an exchange formally assigns a ticker ahead of pricing and the resolver reads that literally. EDGAR full-text search on Sep 11 returns no Anthropic S-1/S-1A; only third-party 'Anthropic'-named SPV fund filings.

## 5. Rejects (Stage 2 — side formed)

| Ticker | Archetype | Side @ price | P(YES) | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| `KXLOCALLAW-CAJEWISH-26OCT01`California enacts SB 1387 (Jewish identity as ethnicity in state data) before Oct 1, 2026? | confirmation/enact | YES @ 9¢ | 70% | below 40¢ band (tail). SB 1387 passed 62-0 / 38-0, was presented to Newsom Sep 9 with a Sep 30 deadline, and he signed the Middle Eastern/Israeli data-category bill; base-rate P(sign)≈70% vs a 9¢ ask. Largest apparent mispricing on the slate — shadow-track it; veto risk is cost/deficit and JVP-style privacy opposition. |
| `KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-26SEP-1`Exactly 1 dissent at Sep 16 FOMC? | multi-news-other | NO @ 78¢ | 23% | cluster runner-up; no edge (p(YES)≈23 vs YES bid 22 — inside spread 22/26) |
| `KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-26SEP-2`Exactly 2 dissents at Sep 16 FOMC? | multi-news-other | YES @ 17¢ | 21% | below 40¢ band; cluster runner-up |
| `KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-26SEP-3`Exactly 3 dissents at Sep 16 FOMC? | multi-news-other | YES @ 28¢ | 25% | spread >5¢ (21/28-30); inside spread; below 40¢ band |
| `KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-26SEP-4`Exactly 4 dissents at Sep 16 FOMC? | multi-news-other | NO @ 89¢ | 9% | thin-favorite band with only ~2¢ edge; cluster runner-up |
| `KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-26SEP-5`Exactly 5 dissents at Sep 16 FOMC? | multi-news-other | NO @ 96¢ | 2% | yes ask ≤5¢ (Stage-0); deep-favorite band |
| `KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT24`Anthropic confirms IPO before Oct 24, 2026? | corporate-event | NO @ 68¢ | 30% | spread >5¢ (32/41); cluster runner-up — roadshow 'mid-October at the earliest' makes a pre-Oct-24 pricing live (~30%), so edge is only ~2¢ |
| `KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT10`Anthropic confirms IPO before Oct 10, 2026? | corporate-event | NO @ 92¢ | 4% | deep-favorite band (NO ask 92¢); cluster runner-up |
| `KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT01`Anthropic confirms IPO before Oct 1, 2026? | corporate-event | NO @ 97¢ | 1% | yes ask ≤5¢ (Stage-0); deep-favorite band |
| `KXHEGSETHOUT-26AUG-26OCT01`Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before Oct 1, 2026? | multi-news-other | NO @ 95¢ | 4% | deep-favorite band (NO ask 95¢). Precedents KXHEGSETHOUT-26APR-JUN01/JUL01/SEP01 all NO; Driscoll resignation + Tillis call answered by Trump's 'fantastic job' — the crowd already prices the lesson. |
| `KXAGICO-COMP-26Q3`Any company officially announces it has achieved AGI before Oct 1, 2026? | multi-news-other | NO @ 94¢ | 3% | deep-favorite band (NO ask 94¢); 'verifiable company' clause adds resolver discretion |

## 6. Rejects (Stage 0 — mechanical, no side formed)

| Ticker | Archetype | YES ask | Cut |
|---|---|---|---|
| `KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26OCT01` | departure/ouster | 4¢ | vol24h<500 (0) |
| `KXKASHOUT-26JUL-26OCT01` | departure/ouster | 3¢ | vol24h<500 (4) |
| `KXLOCALLAW-CAAANG-26OCT01` | confirmation/enact | 2¢ | vol24h<500 (6) |
| `KXALITOANNOUNCERETIRE-26JUN-OCT01` | departure/ouster | 2¢ | vol24h<500 (0) |
| `KXARRESTNETANYAHU-28JAN01-26OCT01` | legal-action | 1¢ | vol24h<500 (0) |
| `KXHOUSEADJOURN-26-26SEP26` | departure/ouster | 96¢ | vol24h<500 (49) |
| `KXHOUSEADJOURN-26-26SEP18` | departure/ouster | 91¢ | vol24h<500 (72) |
| `KXHOUSEADJOURN-26-26OCT02` | departure/ouster | 100¢ | vol24h<500 (0) |
| `KXZELENSKYYOUT-26OCT01` | departure/ouster | 2¢ | vol24h<500 (0) |
| `KXPROMISEACT-26AUG-26OCT03` | confirmation/enact | 1¢ | vol24h<500 (0) |
| `KXGALLEGOOUT-26OCT01` | departure/ouster | 2¢ | vol24h<500 (0) |
| `KXRECNCH-27-OCT01` | confirmation/enact | 1¢ | vol24h<500 (0) |
| `KXNUMAPPROP-26OCT01-AL5` | confirmation/enact | 3¢ | vol24h<500 (0) |
| `KXNUMAPPROP-26OCT01-AL3` | confirmation/enact | 5¢ | vol24h<500 (0) |
| `KXNUMAPPROP-26OCT01-AL1` | confirmation/enact | 5¢ | vol24h<500 (0) |
| `KXLEAVEMILLS-26NOV03-26OCT01` | departure/ouster | 11¢ | vol24h<500 (0) |
| `KXMARTINDNCOUT-26MAY-26OCT01` | departure/ouster | 8¢ | vol24h<500 (0) |
| `KXLUXONOUT-26AUG-26OCT01` | departure/ouster | 4¢ | vol24h<500 (29) |
| `KXMCDONALDCONF-26JUN17-OCT01` | confirmation/enact | 2¢ | vol24h<500 (0) |
| `KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26OCT` | scheduled-process | 1¢ | yes ask<=5 |
| `KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26OCT01` | corporate-event | 5¢ | yes ask<=5 |
| `KXIPOOPENAI-26OCT01` | corporate-event | 1¢ | vol24h<500 (0) |
| `KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-HOLD` | scheduled-process | 2¢ | vol24h<500 (0) |
| `KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-H25P` | scheduled-process | 2¢ | yes ask<=5 |
| `KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-H25` | scheduled-process | 99¢ | yes bid>=95 |
| `KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-C25P` | scheduled-process | 1¢ | vol24h<500 (0) |
| `KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-C25` | scheduled-process | 1¢ | vol24h<500 (257) |
| `KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-ZAMB` | multi-news-other | 11¢ | vol24h<500 (0) |
| `KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-USA` | multi-news-other | 9¢ | vol24h<500 (0) |
| `KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-TANZ` | multi-news-other | 9¢ | vol24h<500 (0) |
| `KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-SUD` | multi-news-other | 12¢ | vol24h<500 (5) |
| `KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-SOM` | multi-news-other | 10¢ | vol24h<500 (0) |
| `KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-RWA` | multi-news-other | 15¢ | vol24h<500 (0) |
| `KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-RCON` | multi-news-other | 11¢ | vol24h<500 (0) |
| `KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-NIGE` | multi-news-other | 10¢ | vol24h<500 (0) |
| `KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-KEN` | multi-news-other | 14¢ | vol24h<500 (0) |
| `KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-IND` | multi-news-other | 8¢ | vol24h<500 (5) |
| `KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-ETHI` | multi-news-other | 11¢ | vol24h<500 (0) |
| `KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-CHI` | multi-news-other | 6¢ | vol24h<500 (0) |
| `KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-CAR` | multi-news-other | 13¢ | vol24h<500 (0) |
| `KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-CANA` | multi-news-other | 10¢ | vol24h<500 (0) |
| `KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-BUR` | multi-news-other | 13¢ | vol24h<500 (0) |
| `KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-ANG` | multi-news-other | 9¢ | vol24h<500 (0) |
| `KXIPOSTARLINK-26OCT01` | corporate-event | 1¢ | vol24h<500 (1) |
| `KXCBDCZECH-26SEP17-HOLD` | scheduled-process | 100¢ | vol24h<500 (0) |
| `KXCBDCZECH-26SEP17-H50P` | scheduled-process | 1¢ | vol24h<500 (0) |
| `KXCBDCZECH-26SEP17-H50` | scheduled-process | 1¢ | vol24h<500 (0) |
| `KXCBDCZECH-26SEP17-H25P` | scheduled-process | 3¢ | vol24h<500 (0) |
| `KXCBDCZECH-26SEP17-C50P` | scheduled-process | 1¢ | vol24h<500 (0) |
| `KXCBDCZECH-26SEP17-C50` | scheduled-process | 1¢ | vol24h<500 (0) |
| `KXCBDCZECH-26SEP17-C25` | scheduled-process | 1¢ | vol24h<500 (468) |
| `KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-HOLD` | scheduled-process | 98¢ | vol24h<500 (0) |
| `KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-H50P` | scheduled-process | 1¢ | vol24h<500 (0) |
| `KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-H50` | scheduled-process | 1¢ | vol24h<500 (0) |
| `KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-H25P` | scheduled-process | 6¢ | vol24h<500 (39) |
| `KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-C50P` | scheduled-process | 4¢ | vol24h<500 (0) |
| `KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-C50` | scheduled-process | 5¢ | vol24h<500 (0) |
| `KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-C25` | scheduled-process | 1¢ | vol24h<500 (0) |

## 7. Portfolio tables

### Position sizes and limits

| Ticker | Side | Limit | Contracts | Cost = max loss | % capital | Cap binding |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-26SEP-0 | NO | 73¢ | 166 | $121.18 | 4.8% | Depth (1/3 of 498 visible ≤ 73¢); MEDIUM cap would allow $175 |
| KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT17 | NO | 72¢ | 243 | $174.96 | 7.0% | MEDIUM conviction cap (7%); depth 7,560 not binding |
| **Total deployed** | **$296.14** | **11.8%** | Cash $2,203.86 (88.2%); reserve ≥ 10% satisfied |  |  |  |

### EV for the record (not used for sizing)

| Ticker | P(win) | Cost/contract | EV/contract | EV on position | Max win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-26SEP-0 | 78% | 73¢ | +5.0¢ | +$8.30 | $44.82 |
| KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT17 | 88% | 72¢ | +16.0¢ | +$38.88 | $68.04 |

### Clusters (one leg each)

| Cluster | Deployed leg | Runner-ups logged | Exposure |
|---|---|---|---|
| fomc-sep26-dissent-count | SEP-0 NO | SEP-1, SEP-2, SEP-3, SEP-4, SEP-5 | $121.18 |
| anthropic-ipo-confirm-date | OCT17 NO | OCT01, OCT10, OCT24 | $174.96 |

### Conviction exposure

| Tier | Picks | Cost | % capital |
|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | 0 | $0 | 0% |
| MEDIUM | 2 | $296.14 | 11.8% |
| Cash | — | $2,203.86 | 88.2% |

### Risk profile

The two positions are uncorrelated (Fed vote count vs. an SEC filing calendar). Worst case both lose: −$296 (11.8%). The FOMC leg resolves Sep 16 18:00Z; the Anthropic leg is a 36-day hold that can be re-rated daily off EDGAR — a public S-1 before ~Sep 24 is the exit signal, a public S-1 after Sep 25 makes it mechanically locked (consider re-rating to HIGH and topping up to the 15% cap within the depth rule).

### Execution notes

- FOMC-0: top of book is 20 contracts at 70¢; a 73¢ limit reaches 498 visible contracts (3¢ slippage, at the cap). Do not chase above 73¢ — at 75¢ the visible 4,004-contract wall is where the price echoes the market rather than the thesis. Work it before the Sep 15 meeting open; the Fed blackout means no official comments will move it until the statement.
- Anthropic-OCT17: 7,560 contracts of YES bid at 28¢ = NO fillable at 72¢ in one print. Rest at 72¢, do not pay 73¢+ (72¢ is the ask already).
- Check EDGAR (efts.sec.gov full-text, "Anthropic", forms S-1) daily; check FedWatch and any Waller/Williams reporting on Sep 15–16.

## 8. Sources

- Kalshi public API — /markets, /orderbook, /candlesticks for all tickers above (Sep 11, 2026 ~16:30Z).
- resolution_precedents store — KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-26JUL-0/-3, KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-*, KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26JUN01/JUL01/SEP01, KXIPO-26-SPACEX, KXHEGSETHOUT-26APR-JUN01/JUL01/SEP01.
- BLS CPI August 2026 (Sep 11): headline 3.4% y/y, +0.4% m/m; core 2.4%. July CPI (Aug 12): 3.4% / core 2.5%. CME FedWatch Sep 11: 71.3% hike, 28.8% hold (PANews / Yahoo Finance).
- PBS/AP (Sep 3, 2026): Waller "inclined" to hold if inflation cools; Williams wants more evidence. CNBC (Aug 28/31): Warsh Jackson Hole "more work to do"; hike odds 34%→57%.
- Federal Reserve FOMC minutes July 28–29, 2026: 9-3 hold, "several participants favored an increase of 25 basis points".
- CNBC/Reuters (Sep 5, 2026), Forbes (Sep 7): Anthropic public prospectus slips to late September, roadshow mid-October at the earliest, listing days before Nov 3; $15bn revolver. SEC EDGAR full-text search (Sep 11): no Anthropic S-1. Polymarket "Anthropic IPO by": Oct 15 5%, Oct 31 59%.
- leginfo.legislature.ca.gov SB 1387: enrolled and presented to the Governor 09/09/26; JTA (Aug 27, Sep 1), J. Weekly (Sep 1), San Diego Jewish World (Sep 10): 62-0 / 38-0, Sep 30 deadline, JVP opposition, Newsom signed the Middle Eastern/Israeli category bill.
- UPI/Time/The Hill (Sep 2–3): Tillis calls for Hegseth's firing after Driscoll resignation; Trump: "doing a fantastic job".

Keel v4 · generated 2026-09-11 · probabilities committed before opening the book; blended numbers shown on each card.