Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit (v4, archetype-targeted)

Two picks, $296 deployed (11.8% of capital), $2,204 (88%) held in cash. A thin week: 899 open markets across the 117 reachable target series, only 71 close inside the 45-day horizon, and the live-book liquidity floor (vol24h ≥ 500) plus spread/tail cuts left 9 mechanical survivors, none of them Tier 1 at a tradeable price. Both picks are NO-side carries in the 60–84¢ core band on Tier-2 archetypes, each anchored on a named precedent from the store.

• NO · 0 dissents at the Sep 16 FOMC (limit 73¢, 166 contracts). The rung ran 13¢→30¢ today on the August CPI; a unanimous vote still needs either a Warsh hike that Waller and Williams swallow or a hold the three July hawks accept.
• NO · Anthropic confirms IPO before Oct 17 (limit 72¢, 243 contracts). No public S-1 on EDGAR; Reuters puts the roadshow at mid-October earliest, so the SEC's 15-day clock rules out a pre-Oct-17 pricing on the reported schedule.

Disclosure: this audit is produced by an Anthropic model. The Anthropic IPO thesis uses only public reporting, the SEC EDGAR full-text index and the precedent store; no non-public information is involved.

Every Tier-1 market inside the horizon (Kash Patel, Alito, Powell-governor, Zelenskyy, Netanyahu arrest, McDonald confirmation, NUMAPPROP, PROMISE Act, House adjournment rungs) failed the live volume floor — most at 0 contracts in 24h. Per v4 they are mechanical rejects, not research targets. Category focus was Politics; both picks are Politics-filed Tier-2 series.

Exactly 0 dissenting votes at the Sep 16, 2026 FOMC meeting?

Thesis. A unanimous vote needs a Warsh hike that Waller (on record Sep 3 leaning hold) and Williams swallow, or a hold the three July hawks accept; both paths are the tail, not the 30¢ base case the post-CPI surge priced.

Rationale. Prob: 17% pre-market → 22% final (blended toward a 28k-contract book). The 0-strike ran 13¢→30¢ today after August CPI (3.4% headline, core down to 2.4%) pushed FedWatch hike odds to ~71%; but a hike still faces Waller, who said Sep 3 he would be 'inclined' to hold if inflation cools (core did), and Williams, who wanted more evidence, while a hold re-runs July's 9-3 with Hammack/Kashkari/Logan dissenting. Precedent KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-26JUL-0 resolved NO — 'a unanimous vote is the tail whenever named dissenters have not publicly changed position'; NO at 65-79¢ was that ladder's cleanest carry. Cleanest tail risk: a Warsh-led 25bp hike that every dove signs, which is roughly the one-in-five path the pre-market number already prices. Resolver deduction 0 pts (count of dissents is verbatim in the Fed statement).

Precedents consulted: KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-26JUL-0 (NO), KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-26JUL-3 (YES), KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-H25 (NO: hawkish repricing into a live FOMC vented as dissent, not a move)

14-day YES price (daily close): 08-28 19¢ 08-30 16¢ 09-01 15¢ 09-02 17¢ 09-03 11¢ 09-04 12¢ 09-06 14¢ 09-09 12¢ 09-10 13¢ 09-11 30¢

Anthropic confirms an IPO (S-1 effective / priced / ticker assigned) before Oct 17, 2026?

Thesis. No public S-1 exists on EDGAR as of Sep 11; Reuters (Sep 4) puts the public filing in late September and the roadshow mid-October at the earliest, so none of the three resolution triggers can plausibly fire before Oct 17 — yet the rung still carries 28¢ of post-headline residue.

Rationale. Prob: 9% pre-market → 12% final (a 7,560-contract YES bid at 28¢ says someone disagrees; Polymarket prices 'trading by Oct 15' at 5%). Mechanics: the SEC requires the public S-1 at least 15 days before the roadshow, and pricing follows a ~1-week roadshow, so a pre-Oct-17 pricing needs a public filing by ~Sep 24 plus a compressed schedule, against a company plan (Reuters, Sep 4; Forbes, Sep 7) of a listing 'days before the Nov 3 midterms' after a $15bn revolver. Precedents: KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26JUL01 and -26SEP01 both NO ('filed' and 'confirmed' are months apart); KXIPO-26-SPACEX shows Kalshi did not treat a proposed symbol in a public S-1 as an assigned ticker. Cleanest tail: an exchange formally assigning a ticker ahead of pricing — deducted 4 pts in the final number. Disclosure: this audit runs on an Anthropic model; the thesis rests solely on public reporting, EDGAR and the precedent store.

Precedents consulted: KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26JUL01 (NO), KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26SEP01 (NO), KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26JUN01 (NO), KXIPO-26-SPACEX (YES only at pricing)

14-day YES price (daily close): 09-04 77¢ 09-05 48¢ 09-06 30¢ 09-07 30¢ 09-08 30¢ 09-09 29¢ 09-10 32¢ 09-11 29¢

KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT — resolver: Kalshi, off the FOMC statement's vote line

Rules: "exactly N dissenting votes at the next scheduled FOMC meeting (Sep 16, 2026)". The statement names every dissenter and their preferred action; there is no discretion. Precedent rows (JUL-0 NO, JUL-3 YES) settled at the 18:00Z expiration on the statement. Deduction: 0 pts. The only risk is forecast risk: the roster is Warsh, Powell, Jefferson, Barr, Bowman, Cook, Waller, Williams, Hammack, Kashkari, Logan, Paulson. Scenario tree used: hike ~60% (FedWatch 71% on Sep 11, discounted per KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-H25 where a 38% hike repricing resolved as dissents inside a hold) with P(0 dissents | hike) ≈ 20% given Waller's Sep 3 hold lean and Williams's 'more evidence' line; hold ~40% with P(0 | hold) ≈ 10% (June's 12-0 shows the hawks can fall in line behind strong guidance). Pre-market 17%; final 22%.

KXIPOANTHROPIC — resolver: Kalshi, on three mechanical triggers

rules_secondary (live, verbatim): "An IPO is confirmed if 1) the SEC declares the company's Form S-1 effective OR 2) the IPO is priced OR 3) a securities exchange has assigned a ticker to it." No dated clarification appended. Precedent KXIPO-26-SPACEX: a public S-1 naming 'SPCX' did not resolve the market; settlement waited for effectiveness/pricing on Jun 11. Precedents JUL01/SEP01: confidential filing and company press releases carried zero weight. Deduction: 4 pts for the residual chance an exchange formally assigns a ticker ahead of pricing and the resolver reads that literally. EDGAR full-text search on Sep 11 returns no Anthropic S-1/S-1A; only third-party 'Anthropic'-named SPV fund filings.

Position sizes and limits

EV for the record (not used for sizing)

Clusters (one leg each)

Conviction exposure

Risk profile

The two positions are uncorrelated (Fed vote count vs. an SEC filing calendar). Worst case both lose: −$296 (11.8%). The FOMC leg resolves Sep 16 18:00Z; the Anthropic leg is a 36-day hold that can be re-rated daily off EDGAR — a public S-1 before ~Sep 24 is the exit signal, a public S-1 after Sep 25 makes it mechanically locked (consider re-rating to HIGH and topping up to the 15% cap within the depth rule).

Execution notes

• FOMC-0: top of book is 20 contracts at 70¢; a 73¢ limit reaches 498 visible contracts (3¢ slippage, at the cap). Do not chase above 73¢ — at 75¢ the visible 4,004-contract wall is where the price echoes the market rather than the thesis. Work it before the Sep 15 meeting open; the Fed blackout means no official comments will move it until the statement.
• Anthropic-OCT17: 7,560 contracts of YES bid at 28¢ = NO fillable at 72¢ in one print. Rest at 72¢, do not pay 73¢+ (72¢ is the ask already).
• Check EDGAR (efts.sec.gov full-text, "Anthropic", forms S-1) daily; check FedWatch and any Waller/Williams reporting on Sep 15–16.

• Kalshi public API — /markets, /orderbook, /candlesticks for all tickers above (Sep 11, 2026 ~16:30Z).
• resolution_precedents store — KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-26JUL-0/-3, KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-*, KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26JUN01/JUL01/SEP01, KXIPO-26-SPACEX, KXHEGSETHOUT-26APR-JUN01/JUL01/SEP01.
• BLS CPI August 2026 (Sep 11): headline 3.4% y/y, +0.4% m/m; core 2.4%. July CPI (Aug 12): 3.4% / core 2.5%. CME FedWatch Sep 11: 71.3% hike, 28.8% hold (PANews / Yahoo Finance).
• PBS/AP (Sep 3, 2026): Waller "inclined" to hold if inflation cools; Williams wants more evidence. CNBC (Aug 28/31): Warsh Jackson Hole "more work to do"; hike odds 34%→57%.
• Federal Reserve FOMC minutes July 28–29, 2026: 9-3 hold, "several participants favored an increase of 25 basis points".
• CNBC/Reuters (Sep 5, 2026), Forbes (Sep 7): Anthropic public prospectus slips to late September, roadshow mid-October at the earliest, listing days before Nov 3; $15bn revolver. SEC EDGAR full-text search (Sep 11): no Anthropic S-1. Polymarket "Anthropic IPO by": Oct 15 5%, Oct 31 59%.
• leginfo.legislature.ca.gov SB 1387: enrolled and presented to the Governor 09/09/26; JTA (Aug 27, Sep 1), J. Weekly (Sep 1), San Diego Jewish World (Sep 10): 62-0 / 38-0, Sep 30 deadline, JVP opposition, Newsom signed the Middle Eastern/Israeli category bill.
• UPI/Time/The Hill (Sep 2–3): Tillis calls for Hegseth's firing after Driscoll resignation; Trump: "doing a fantastic job".