# Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit (v4, archetype-targeted) · 2026-09-10

Date: 2026-09-10
Source: https://kalshi-audits.pages.dev/2026-09-10-kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit-v4

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# Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit (v4, archetype-targeted)

Report date 2026-09-10 · generated 2026-09-10 12:17 UTC · Keel v4 · capital $10,000 · horizon 45 days · category focus: Politics · universe: `targets.json` (120 series, 76 Tier 1 / 44 Tier 2, generated 2026-09-10 12:07 UTC)

0picks
69logged rejects (6 reached Stage 2)
$0allocated · 100% cash
69in-horizon markets scanned
6cleared mechanical cuts

## 1. Summary

Zero picks this week, by design rather than by default. The v4 universe closing inside 45 days is almost entirely Oct 1 "before" rungs already priced at 0-6¢ on dead books, plus scheduled central-bank ladders. Six markets cleared the liquidity/spread/timing cuts; all six were rejected — two on band rules (a ≥90¢ deep favorite and a 40-59¢ earned-favorite that lacks the required Tier-1 archetype), two on the deep-favorite band alone, one as an existing pick, and one because the model probability sits inside the market's own spread the day before a binary catalyst (Aug CPI, Fri Sep 11).

The week's notable **shadow-tracked reject** is `KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT24`: NO at 45¢ against a 30% model probability of Anthropic pricing/effectiveness before Oct 24, driven by Reuters' Sep 4 report that the public S-1 slipped to late September with marketing "mid-October at the earliest". The v4 band rule (40-59¢ requires a Tier-1 process archetype) and the one-leg-per-cluster spirit (OCT17 NO is live) both say no. If this rung settles NO, the record will argue for extending the earned-favorites band to schedule-backed corporate-event theses; that is a classifier/rulebook change for a future run, not an exception here.

## 2. Universe (Stage 0)

Candidates = open markets in allowlisted series with `close_time` inside 2026-09-10 → 2026-10-25. 69 such markets across 22 series (Tier 1: 20, Tier 2: 49). The Tier-1 heavyweights in the file (KXSAVEACT, KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE, KXFEDERALCHARGE, KXBILLS, KXIMPEACH, KXSTATEBALLOTMEASURE …) all close Dec 31 2026 or later and are out of horizon; the mirror confirms 52 of 76 Tier-1 series have no market closing before Nov 1.

Mechanical-cut histogram over the 63 cut markets: vol24h<500 ×48, yes_ask<=5 ×30, spread>5 ×16, inside 3h halt ×5, yes_bid>=95 ×3, already an active pick ×1. No Mentions markets were in the universe. Specialist-dense books (vol24h > 5,000): KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-H25P (13k), KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT01 (13.7k), KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26OCT (41.8k) — all cut on price band (ask ≤ 5¢ or bid ≥ 95¢).

All 63 Stage-0 cuts
| Series | Ticker | YES bid/ask | vol24h | OI | Close | Cuts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXALITOANNOUNCERETIRE | `KXALITOANNOUNCERETIRE-26JUN-OCT01` | 0/2 | 3700 | 28458 | 2026-10-01 | yes_ask<=5 |
| KXARRESTNETANYAHU | `KXARRESTNETANYAHU-28JAN01-26OCT01` | 0/1 | 0 | 27345 | 2026-10-01 | vol24h<500, yes_ask<=5 |
| KXGALLEGOOUT | `KXGALLEGOOUT-26OCT01` | 1/2 | 0 | 4839 | 2026-10-01 | vol24h<500, yes_ask<=5 |
| KXHOUSEADJOURN | `KXHOUSEADJOURN-26-26OCT02` | 98/100 | 0 | 3165 | 2026-10-02 | vol24h<500, yes_bid>=95 |
| KXHOUSEADJOURN | `KXHOUSEADJOURN-26-26SEP18` | 90/97 | 0 | 5249 | 2026-09-18 | vol24h<500, spread>5 |
| KXHOUSEADJOURN | `KXHOUSEADJOURN-26-26SEP26` | 94/98 | 0 | 6874 | 2026-09-26 | vol24h<500 |
| KXKASHOUT | `KXKASHOUT-26JUL-26OCT01` | 1/3 | 561 | 16121 | 2026-10-01 | yes_ask<=5 |
| KXLEAVEMILLS | `KXLEAVEMILLS-26NOV03-26OCT01` | 2/53 | 0 | 1352 | 2026-10-01 | vol24h<500, spread>5 |
| KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV | `KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26OCT01` | 1/6 | 0 | 6754 | 2026-10-01 | vol24h<500 |
| KXLOCALLAW | `KXLOCALLAW-CAAANG-26OCT01` | 1/2 | 1218 | 36941 | 2026-10-01 | yes_ask<=5 |
| KXLOCALLAW | `KXLOCALLAW-CAJEWISH-26OCT01` | 8/14 | 587 | 7951 | 2026-10-01 | spread>5 |
| KXLUXONOUT | `KXLUXONOUT-26AUG-26OCT01` | 0/3 | 0 | 3321 | 2026-10-01 | vol24h<500, yes_ask<=5 |
| KXMARTINDNCOUT | `KXMARTINDNCOUT-26MAY-26OCT01` | 4/8 | 0 | 222 | 2026-10-01 | vol24h<500 |
| KXMCDONALDCONF | `KXMCDONALDCONF-26JUN17-OCT01` | 0/2 | 0 | 1928 | 2026-10-01 | vol24h<500, yes_ask<=5 |
| KXNUMAPPROP | `KXNUMAPPROP-26OCT01-AL1` | 3/5 | 0 | 3116 | 2026-10-01 | vol24h<500, yes_ask<=5 |
| KXNUMAPPROP | `KXNUMAPPROP-26OCT01-AL3` | 2/7 | 0 | 939 | 2026-10-01 | vol24h<500 |
| KXNUMAPPROP | `KXNUMAPPROP-26OCT01-AL5` | 1/3 | 0 | 1579 | 2026-10-01 | vol24h<500, yes_ask<=5 |
| KXPROMISEACT | `KXPROMISEACT-26AUG-26OCT03` | 0/1 | 0 | 12331 | 2026-10-03 | vol24h<500, yes_ask<=5 |
| KXRECNCH | `KXRECNCH-27-OCT01` | 0/1 | 0 | 2530 | 2026-10-01 | vol24h<500, yes_ask<=5 |
| KXZELENSKYYOUT | `KXZELENSKYYOUT-26OCT01` | 0/2 | 0 | 20866 | 2026-10-01 | vol24h<500, yes_ask<=5 |
| KXAGICO | `KXAGICO-COMP-26Q3` | 5/8 | 279 | 16788 | 2026-10-01 | vol24h<500 |
| KXCBDECISIONEU | `KXCBDECISIONEU-26SEP10-C25` | 0/1 | 1122 | 7004 | 2026-09-10 | yes_ask<=5, inside 3h halt |
| KXCBDECISIONEU | `KXCBDECISIONEU-26SEP10-C25P` | 0/1 | 0 | 1664 | 2026-09-10 | vol24h<500, yes_ask<=5, inside 3h halt |
| KXCBDECISIONEU | `KXCBDECISIONEU-26SEP10-H25` | 99/100 | 195 | 14842 | 2026-09-10 | vol24h<500, yes_bid>=95, inside 3h halt |
| KXCBDECISIONEU | `KXCBDECISIONEU-26SEP10-H25P` | 0/1 | 333 | 22542 | 2026-09-10 | vol24h<500, yes_ask<=5, inside 3h halt |
| KXCBDECISIONEU | `KXCBDECISIONEU-26SEP10-HOLD` | 0/1 | 593 | 42065 | 2026-09-10 | yes_ask<=5, inside 3h halt |
| KXCBDECISIONJAPAN | `KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-C25` | 0/1 | 1193 | 2188 | 2026-09-18 | yes_ask<=5 |
| KXCBDECISIONJAPAN | `KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-C25P` | 0/1 | 333 | 941 | 2026-09-18 | vol24h<500, yes_ask<=5 |
| KXCBDECISIONJAPAN | `KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-H25` | 98/99 | 2578 | 46750 | 2026-09-18 | yes_bid>=95 |
| KXCBDECISIONJAPAN | `KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-H25P` | 1/2 | 13387 | 63570 | 2026-09-18 | yes_ask<=5 |
| KXCBDECISIONJAPAN | `KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-HOLD` | 0/2 | 1888 | 18762 | 2026-09-18 | yes_ask<=5 |
| KXCBDECISIONMEXICO | `KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-C25` | 0/1 | 4 | 3972 | 2026-09-24 | vol24h<500, yes_ask<=5 |
| KXCBDECISIONMEXICO | `KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-C50` | 0/10 | 0 | 4645 | 2026-09-24 | vol24h<500, spread>5 |
| KXCBDECISIONMEXICO | `KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-C50P` | 0/5 | 0 | 4651 | 2026-09-24 | vol24h<500, yes_ask<=5 |
| KXCBDECISIONMEXICO | `KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-H25P` | 0/7 | 14 | 3675 | 2026-09-24 | vol24h<500, spread>5 |
| KXCBDECISIONMEXICO | `KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-H50` | 0/1 | 0 | 3395 | 2026-09-24 | vol24h<500, yes_ask<=5 |
| KXCBDECISIONMEXICO | `KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-H50P` | 0/1 | 0 | 3395 | 2026-09-24 | vol24h<500, yes_ask<=5 |
| KXCBDECISIONMEXICO | `KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-HOLD` | 90/100 | 0 | 5580 | 2026-09-24 | vol24h<500, spread>5 |
| KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER | `KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26OCT01` | 3/5 | 3030 | 199962 | 2026-10-01 | yes_ask<=5 |
| KXEBOLACOUNTRY | `KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-ANG` | 3/9 | 0 | 1026 | 2026-10-01 | vol24h<500, spread>5 |
| KXEBOLACOUNTRY | `KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-BUR` | 6/13 | 0 | 600 | 2026-10-01 | vol24h<500, spread>5 |
| KXEBOLACOUNTRY | `KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-CANA` | 6/9 | 0 | 678 | 2026-10-01 | vol24h<500 |
| KXEBOLACOUNTRY | `KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-CAR` | 6/13 | 0 | 1175 | 2026-10-01 | vol24h<500, spread>5 |
| KXEBOLACOUNTRY | `KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-CHI` | 0/6 | 0 | 123 | 2026-10-01 | vol24h<500, spread>5 |
| KXEBOLACOUNTRY | `KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-ETHI` | 6/11 | 0 | 17 | 2026-10-01 | vol24h<500 |
| KXEBOLACOUNTRY | `KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-KEN` | 7/14 | 0 | 90 | 2026-10-01 | vol24h<500, spread>5 |
| KXEBOLACOUNTRY | `KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-NIGE` | 6/10 | 0 | 701 | 2026-10-01 | vol24h<500 |
| KXEBOLACOUNTRY | `KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-RCON` | 7/11 | 0 | 626 | 2026-10-01 | vol24h<500 |
| KXEBOLACOUNTRY | `KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-RWA` | 9/16 | 0 | 662 | 2026-10-01 | vol24h<500, spread>5 |
| KXEBOLACOUNTRY | `KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-SOM` | 3/10 | 0 | 140 | 2026-10-01 | vol24h<500, spread>5 |
| KXEBOLACOUNTRY | `KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-SUD` | 6/12 | 0 | 1101 | 2026-10-01 | vol24h<500, spread>5 |
| KXEBOLACOUNTRY | `KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-TANZ` | 3/9 | 500 | 611 | 2026-10-01 | spread>5 |
| KXEBOLACOUNTRY | `KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-USA` | 4/7 | 0 | 5055 | 2026-10-01 | vol24h<500 |
| KXEBOLACOUNTRY | `KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-ZAMB` | 5/12 | 0 | 148 | 2026-10-01 | vol24h<500, spread>5 |
| KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT | `KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-26SEP-1` | 10/13 | 0 | 13762 | 2026-09-16 | vol24h<500 |
| KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT | `KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-26SEP-2` | 11/12 | 0 | 5331 | 2026-09-16 | vol24h<500 |
| KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT | `KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-26SEP-3` | 32/34 | 29 | 11334 | 2026-09-16 | vol24h<500 |
| KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT | `KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-26SEP-4` | 16/17 | 334 | 6713 | 2026-09-16 | vol24h<500 |
| KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT | `KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-26SEP-5` | 4/5 | 833 | 6351 | 2026-09-16 | yes_ask<=5 |
| KXIPOANTHROPIC | `KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT01` | 1/4 | 13651 | 315398 | 2026-10-01 | yes_ask<=5, already an active pick |
| KXIPOOPENAI | `KXIPOOPENAI-26OCT01` | 0/1 | 100 | 30990 | 2026-10-01 | vol24h<500, yes_ask<=5 |
| KXIPOSTARLINK | `KXIPOSTARLINK-26OCT01` | 0/1 | 0 | 11109 | 2026-10-01 | vol24h<500, yes_ask<=5 |
| KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT | `KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26OCT` | 1/2 | 41819 | 335467 | 2026-10-01 | yes_ask<=5 |

## 3. Precedent retrieval (Stage 1)

The store holds 157 rows over 23 series. Coverage for this week's survivors: KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT (2 rows, July 2026 ladder), KXIPOANTHROPIC (3 rows, JUN01/JUL01/SEP01) plus KXIPO-26-SPACEX for the trigger definition, KXHEGSETHOUT (2 rows), KXFEDDECISION (10 rows, June/July ladders — used as context for the dissent count). KXEBOLACOUNTRY has no rows (cold derivation). The two lessons that decided this week: (a) "exactly 0 dissents is NO-side carry _when the prior meeting produced named dissenters who have not changed position_" — the conditional matters, because a hike flips who the dissenters would be; (b) "clock the Anthropic ladder off the PUBLIC S-1 date: pricing ≥ ~3 weeks after it" — verified against the live `rules_secondary` (three triggers, none met by a public filing).

## 4. Stage-2 diligence and rejects

multi-news-other Tier 2 NO @ 88¢ REJECT

### Exactly 0 dissents at the Sep 16 FOMC?

`KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-26SEP-0` · cluster `fomc-sep16-dissent-count` · closes 2026-09-16T17:59:00Z

Precedent says "exactly 0" is NO-side carry — but that lesson was written for a hold with three seated hawks. This meeting is a 54/46 hike/hold coin flip.

**Prob:** 16% pre-market → 16% final (YES-side). **Book:** YES 12/13, depth at limit 2295, vol24h 2,372, OI 44,368.

**Reject reason:** no edge: model 16% (pre-market 16%) for zero dissents vs YES 12-13c; a 54%-priced hike makes a unanimous vote plausible, so NO at 88c is not outside the market's own band. CPI lands Sep 11 — public-info-only entry ahead of a known catalyst.

**Rationale:** Resolver: Kalshi reads the FOMC statement vote tally; the July 2026 precedent (KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-26JUL-0 settled NO on a 9-3 hold) shows the rule is applied mechanically. Scenario tree: hold (Kalshi H0 45-46c) → Hammack/Kashkari/Logan repeat their July dissent (all three said publicly "now is the time to act") so P(0 | hold) ≈ 5%; hike (H25 53-54c) → unanimity needs Waller (who said Sep 3 he "would be inclined" to hold unless CPI is hot), Williams ("wants more evidence"), Bowman, Cook and Paulson all to vote with Warsh — call P(0 | hike) ≈ 25%. Blended P(0) ≈ 0.54×0.25 + 0.46×0.05 ≈ 16%. Pre-market 16% → final 16% (the book is deep, 44k OI, and agrees). NO needs p < yes_bid (12): fails. YES at 13c is a sub-40c tail. Aug CPI (Fri Sep 11 08:30 ET, consensus +0.4% m/m, 3.4% y/y) will reprice the whole ladder before we could be filled — no private edge.

**Price history:** 0-strike: 10c (Aug 27) → 17c on Aug 29 after Warsh's Jackson Hole speech lifted hike odds 30→47% → 15-16c Sep 1-3 → 12-13c since Sep 4-5 (14k contracts Sep 5). Ladder now: 0=12/13, 1=11/12, 2=11/12, 3=32/34, 4=16/17, 5=4/5.

**Precedents consulted:** KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-26JUL-0 (NO, 9-3 hold), KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-26JUL-3 (YES), KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-H0 (YES: hawkish repricing vented as dissent, not a hike), KXFEDDECISION-26JUN-H0 (12-0 hold)

Sources
- [https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260729a.htm](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260729a.htm)
- [https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/fed-governor-waller-muddies-outlook-on-possible-rate-hike-later-this-month](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/fed-governor-waller-muddies-outlook-on-possible-rate-hike-later-this-month)
- [https://news.kalshi.com/p/fed-rate-hike-odds-september-2026-jackson-hole-speech](https://news.kalshi.com/p/fed-rate-hike-odds-september-2026-jackson-hole-speech)
- [https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/31/fed-officials-who-voted-to-hike-rates-say-action-is-needed-now-against-inflation.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/31/fed-officials-who-voted-to-hike-rates-say-action-is-needed-now-against-inflation.html)
- [https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/economy/cpi-report-august-2026-what-to-expect](https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/economy/cpi-report-august-2026-what-to-expect)

corporate-event Tier 2 NO @ 45¢ REJECT

### Anthropic confirms IPO (S-1 effective / priced / ticker) before Oct 24, 2026?

`KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT24` · cluster `anthropic-ipo-timing` · closes 2026-10-24T03:59:00Z

Reuters (Sep 4): public S-1 slips to late September, marketing mid-October at the earliest, listing "days before" Nov 3. Pricing by Oct 23 needs everything to go right; the market has it at 55%.

**Prob:** 28% pre-market → 30% final (YES-side). **Book:** YES 55/56, depth at limit 788, vol24h 1,721, OI 6,657.

**Reject reason:** band rule: NO at 45c sits in the 40-59c earned-favorites band, which requires a Tier-1 process archetype; corporate-event is Tier 2. Also a second leg on the live anthropic-ipo-timing cluster (OCT17 NO is already an active pick). Shadow-tracked: model 30% vs 55c is the week's largest apparent edge.

**Rationale:** Resolver: rules_secondary names three triggers — S-1 declared effective, IPO priced, or an exchange-assigned ticker — and the KXIPO-26-SPACEX precedent shows Kalshi did NOT count a proposed symbol in a public S-1 as an assignment; KXIPOANTHROPIC-26JUL01 shows the confidential filing counted for nothing. Mechanics: SEC 15-day public-filing-before-roadshow rule + a ~7-10 day roadshow puts the earliest pricing ≈ 3 weeks after the public S-1. A "late September" public S-1 (Sep 21-30) → earliest pricing Oct 13-22; Reuters' own framing ("marketing mid-October at the earliest", "listing days before the midterms") points to pricing Oct 27-30. Pre-market 28% → final 30% (blended a little toward a 6.7k-OI book; Polymarket had 7% for trading by Oct 15 and 59% by Oct 31, bracketing this rung). NO at 45c vs p_no 70% would be a 25c edge — but the band rule is explicit and the record says second legs on one thesis lose 2-3× the first. Cleanest tail: a public S-1 in the next 7 days plus a compressed roadshow.

**Price history:** Rung listed Sep 4 (opened ~60c), 54c Sep 7-8, 55-58c Sep 9-10 with 1-2k contracts/day. EDGAR full-text search on Sep 10 still shows no Anthropic S-1 or S-1/A (only SpaceX, Gloo, QumulusAI hits). Ladder: OCT01 1/4, OCT10 9/12, OCT17 29/31, OCT24 55/56, NOV01 70/71, DEC01 86/89.

**Precedents consulted:** KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26SEP01 (NO; Reuters slip repriced OCT17 69→29c), KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26JUL01 (NO; confidential S-1 is not a trigger), KXIPO-26-SPACEX (YES only on effectiveness/pricing, not on S-1 symbol)

Sources
- [https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/05/anthropic-ipo-launch-shifts-toward-mid-october-reuters.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/05/anthropic-ipo-launch-shifts-toward-mid-october-reuters.html)
- [https://www.pymnts.com/news/artificial-intelligence/2026/anthropic-said-to-postpone-ipo-to-just-before-midterms/](https://www.pymnts.com/news/artificial-intelligence/2026/anthropic-said-to-postpone-ipo-to-just-before-midterms/)
- [https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/anthropic-delays-ipo-launch-to-midoctober-at-earliest-reuters-reports-4890106](https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/anthropic-delays-ipo-launch-to-midoctober-at-earliest-reuters-reports-4890106)
- [https://efts.sec.gov/LATEST/search-index?q=%22Anthropic%22&forms=S-1](https://efts.sec.gov/LATEST/search-index?q=%22Anthropic%22&forms=S-1)

corporate-event Tier 2 NO @ 91¢ REJECT

### Anthropic confirms IPO before Oct 10, 2026?

`KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT10` · cluster `anthropic-ipo-timing` · closes 2026-10-10T03:59:00Z

A public S-1 filed in late September cannot price before Oct 10 under the 15-day rule.

**Prob:** 4% pre-market → 4% final (YES-side). **Book:** YES 9/12, depth at limit —, vol24h 508, OI 3,348.

**Reject reason:** deep-favorite band: NO ask 91c (≥90c). Mechanically near-dead (public S-1 not yet filed; 15-day rule alone pushes pricing past Oct 10) but max win 9c against a full-loss tail.

**Rationale:** Pre-market 4% → final 4%. NO at 91c is in the ≥90c reject band; also the cluster is already occupied by the live OCT17 NO pick.

**Precedents consulted:** KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26SEP01, KXIPO-26-SPACEX

corporate-event Tier 2 NO @ 71¢ REJECT

### Anthropic confirms IPO before Oct 17, 2026?

`KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT17` · cluster `anthropic-ipo-timing` · closes 2026-10-17T03:59:00Z

**Prob:** 12% pre-market → 12% final (YES-side). **Book:** YES 29/31, depth at limit —, vol24h 3,731, OI 6,480.

**Reject reason:** already an active pick (EXISTING_PICKS). Model 12% vs 29-31c still supports the live NO.

**Rationale:** Existing pick; not re-deployed.

**Precedents consulted:** KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26SEP01

departure/ouster Tier 2 NO @ 95¢ REJECT

### Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before Oct 1, 2026?

`KXHEGSETHOUT-26AUG-26OCT01` · cluster `hegseth-exit` · closes 2026-10-01T03:59:00Z

Precedent: resignation demands and IG findings have never resolved this series YES; an active Iran conflict is a structural NO for the defence chief.

**Prob:** 5% pre-market → 5% final (YES-side). **Book:** YES 5/6, depth at limit —, vol24h 2,657, OI 28,413.

**Reject reason:** deep-favorite band: NO ask 95c (≥90c). Four consecutive monthly rungs (JUN01, JUL01, AUG01, SEP01) settled NO; Driscoll's Sep 1 resignation and Tillis's Sep 2 call to replace him drew "I think he's doing a fantastic job" from Trump.

**Rationale:** Pre-market 5% → final 5%. rules_secondary requires an actual departure date and vacating the role within the window. NO at 95c is a ≥90c reject regardless of conviction.

**Precedents consulted:** KXHEGSETHOUT-26APR-JUL01 (NO), KXHEGSETHOUT-26APR-JUN01 (NO), KXHEGSETHOUT-26APR-SEP01 (NO, verified this run)

Sources
- [https://time.com/article/2026/09/02/trump-hegseth-tillis-driscoll-resignation-pentagon/](https://time.com/article/2026/09/02/trump-hegseth-tillis-driscoll-resignation-pentagon/)

multi-news-other Tier 2 NO @ 94¢ REJECT

### Confirmed human Ebola case in India before Oct 1, 2026?

`KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-IND` · cluster `ebola-2026-spread` · closes 2026-10-01T03:59:00Z

**Prob:** 3% pre-market → 3% final (YES-side). **Book:** YES 6/7, depth at limit —, vol24h 621, OI 2,488.

**Reject reason:** deep-favorite band: NO ask 94c (≥90c). Only two exported cases (Germany via US citizen in May; France Jun 24) from a 6,686-case DRC Bundibugyo outbreak; Uganda declared over Jul 28. No precedent rows for the series.

**Rationale:** Pre-market 3% → final 3%. rules_secondary requires confirmation inside India (imported cases count). Cold derivation: no precedent store coverage. Band reject.

**Precedents consulted:** none in store (cold derivation)

Sources
- [https://www.who.int/emergencies/situations/ebola-outbreak---drc-2026](https://www.who.int/emergencies/situations/ebola-outbreak---drc-2026)

## 5. Portfolio tables

### Position sizes and limits

None. Cash: $10,000 (100%). Reserve requirement (≥10%) trivially met.

### EV for the record

| Ticker | Side | Ask of side | Model p(side) | Edge ¢ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| `KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT24` | NO | 45 | 70% | +25 | reject — band/tier, cluster runner-up (shadow) |
| `KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-26SEP-0` | NO | 88 | 84% | −4 | reject — inside spread / no edge |
| `KXHEGSETHOUT-26AUG-26OCT01` | NO | 95 | 95% | 0 | reject — deep-favorite band |
| `KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-IND` | NO | 94 | 97% | +3 | reject — deep-favorite band |
| `KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT10` | NO | 91 | 96% | +5 | reject — deep-favorite band |

### Cluster table

| Cluster | Legs surviving Stage 2 | Deployed | Live elsewhere |
|---|---|---|---|
| anthropic-ipo-timing | OCT10, OCT17, OCT24 | none | OCT01 NO, OCT17 NO (existing picks) |
| fomc-sep16-dissent-count | 0-strike (3/4-strikes failed vol24h) | none | — |
| hegseth-exit | OCT01 | none | — |
| ebola-2026-spread | India | none | — |

### Conviction exposure

HIGH $0 · MEDIUM $0 · cash $10,000.

### Risk profile

No open risk from this run. The live book (existing picks) carries two Anthropic-IPO NO legs whose thesis this run re-verified: no public S-1 on EDGAR as of Sep 10 and a Reuters timeline that makes Oct 17 pricing mechanically implausible.

### Execution notes

Nothing to execute. Watch items for next run: (1) Aug CPI Fri Sep 11 08:30 ET re-prices the entire FOMC dissent ladder — the 3-strike (32/34, OI 11k) would be the interesting leg if its book wakes up; (2) the Anthropic public S-1 date, which sets the clock on every rung; (3) after Sep 16, the Oct 1 rungs enter the 3-week window where most of the universe becomes untradeable.

## 6. Precedent writeback

One row written to `/tmp/out/precedents.json`: `KXHEGSETHOUT-26APR-SEP01` (settled NO; verified this run that the Driscoll resignation and Tillis call landed after the cutoff and drew a public Trump endorsement).

## 7. Method notes

- Query API: `GET /api/db/schema` read first; `market_snapshots` is absent as documented — price history came from Kalshi candlesticks (period 1440, 15 days).
- All prices from `*_dollars` / `*_fp` fields; bare-cent fields ignored.
- Pre-market probabilities were committed from rules + precedents + primary sources before opening the orderbook; both survivors' final numbers moved ≤ 2 pts on blending.
- Mechanical cuts used live `volume_24h_fp`, not the targets-file snapshot.