Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit (v4, archetype-targeted)

Exactly 0 dissents at the Sep 16 FOMC?

KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-26SEP-0 · cluster fomc-sep16-dissent-count · closes 2026-09-16T17:59:00Z

Precedent says "exactly 0" is NO-side carry — but that lesson was written for a hold with three seated hawks. This meeting is a 54/46 hike/hold coin flip.

Prob: 16% pre-market → 16% final (YES-side). Book: YES 12/13, depth at limit 2295, vol24h 2,372, OI 44,368.

Reject reason: no edge: model 16% (pre-market 16%) for zero dissents vs YES 12-13c; a 54%-priced hike makes a unanimous vote plausible, so NO at 88c is not outside the market's own band. CPI lands Sep 11 — public-info-only entry ahead of a known catalyst.

Rationale: Resolver: Kalshi reads the FOMC statement vote tally; the July 2026 precedent (KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-26JUL-0 settled NO on a 9-3 hold) shows the rule is applied mechanically. Scenario tree: hold (Kalshi H0 45-46c) → Hammack/Kashkari/Logan repeat their July dissent (all three said publicly "now is the time to act") so P(0 | hold) ≈ 5%; hike (H25 53-54c) → unanimity needs Waller (who said Sep 3 he "would be inclined" to hold unless CPI is hot), Williams ("wants more evidence"), Bowman, Cook and Paulson all to vote with Warsh — call P(0 | hike) ≈ 25%. Blended P(0) ≈ 0.54×0.25 + 0.46×0.05 ≈ 16%. Pre-market 16% → final 16% (the book is deep, 44k OI, and agrees). NO needs p < yes_bid (12): fails. YES at 13c is a sub-40c tail. Aug CPI (Fri Sep 11 08:30 ET, consensus +0.4% m/m, 3.4% y/y) will reprice the whole ladder before we could be filled — no private edge.

Price history: 0-strike: 10c (Aug 27) → 17c on Aug 29 after Warsh's Jackson Hole speech lifted hike odds 30→47% → 15-16c Sep 1-3 → 12-13c since Sep 4-5 (14k contracts Sep 5). Ladder now: 0=12/13, 1=11/12, 2=11/12, 3=32/34, 4=16/17, 5=4/5.

Precedents consulted: KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-26JUL-0 (NO, 9-3 hold), KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-26JUL-3 (YES), KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-H0 (YES: hawkish repricing vented as dissent, not a hike), KXFEDDECISION-26JUN-H0 (12-0 hold)

Anthropic confirms IPO (S-1 effective / priced / ticker) before Oct 24, 2026?

KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT24 · cluster anthropic-ipo-timing · closes 2026-10-24T03:59:00Z

Reuters (Sep 4): public S-1 slips to late September, marketing mid-October at the earliest, listing "days before" Nov 3. Pricing by Oct 23 needs everything to go right; the market has it at 55%.

Prob: 28% pre-market → 30% final (YES-side). Book: YES 55/56, depth at limit 788, vol24h 1,721, OI 6,657.

Reject reason: band rule: NO at 45c sits in the 40-59c earned-favorites band, which requires a Tier-1 process archetype; corporate-event is Tier 2. Also a second leg on the live anthropic-ipo-timing cluster (OCT17 NO is already an active pick). Shadow-tracked: model 30% vs 55c is the week's largest apparent edge.

Rationale: Resolver: rules_secondary names three triggers — S-1 declared effective, IPO priced, or an exchange-assigned ticker — and the KXIPO-26-SPACEX precedent shows Kalshi did NOT count a proposed symbol in a public S-1 as an assignment; KXIPOANTHROPIC-26JUL01 shows the confidential filing counted for nothing. Mechanics: SEC 15-day public-filing-before-roadshow rule + a ~7-10 day roadshow puts the earliest pricing ≈ 3 weeks after the public S-1. A "late September" public S-1 (Sep 21-30) → earliest pricing Oct 13-22; Reuters' own framing ("marketing mid-October at the earliest", "listing days before the midterms") points to pricing Oct 27-30. Pre-market 28% → final 30% (blended a little toward a 6.7k-OI book; Polymarket had 7% for trading by Oct 15 and 59% by Oct 31, bracketing this rung). NO at 45c vs p_no 70% would be a 25c edge — but the band rule is explicit and the record says second legs on one thesis lose 2-3× the first. Cleanest tail: a public S-1 in the next 7 days plus a compressed roadshow.

Price history: Rung listed Sep 4 (opened ~60c), 54c Sep 7-8, 55-58c Sep 9-10 with 1-2k contracts/day. EDGAR full-text search on Sep 10 still shows no Anthropic S-1 or S-1/A (only SpaceX, Gloo, QumulusAI hits). Ladder: OCT01 1/4, OCT10 9/12, OCT17 29/31, OCT24 55/56, NOV01 70/71, DEC01 86/89.

Precedents consulted: KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26SEP01 (NO; Reuters slip repriced OCT17 69→29c), KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26JUL01 (NO; confidential S-1 is not a trigger), KXIPO-26-SPACEX (YES only on effectiveness/pricing, not on S-1 symbol)

Anthropic confirms IPO before Oct 10, 2026?

KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT10 · cluster anthropic-ipo-timing · closes 2026-10-10T03:59:00Z

A public S-1 filed in late September cannot price before Oct 10 under the 15-day rule.

Prob: 4% pre-market → 4% final (YES-side). Book: YES 9/12, depth at limit —, vol24h 508, OI 3,348.

Reject reason: deep-favorite band: NO ask 91c (≥90c). Mechanically near-dead (public S-1 not yet filed; 15-day rule alone pushes pricing past Oct 10) but max win 9c against a full-loss tail.

Rationale: Pre-market 4% → final 4%. NO at 91c is in the ≥90c reject band; also the cluster is already occupied by the live OCT17 NO pick.

Precedents consulted: KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26SEP01, KXIPO-26-SPACEX

Anthropic confirms IPO before Oct 17, 2026?

KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT17 · cluster anthropic-ipo-timing · closes 2026-10-17T03:59:00Z

Prob: 12% pre-market → 12% final (YES-side). Book: YES 29/31, depth at limit —, vol24h 3,731, OI 6,480.

Reject reason: already an active pick (EXISTING_PICKS). Model 12% vs 29-31c still supports the live NO.

Rationale: Existing pick; not re-deployed.

Precedents consulted: KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26SEP01

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before Oct 1, 2026?

KXHEGSETHOUT-26AUG-26OCT01 · cluster hegseth-exit · closes 2026-10-01T03:59:00Z

Precedent: resignation demands and IG findings have never resolved this series YES; an active Iran conflict is a structural NO for the defence chief.

Prob: 5% pre-market → 5% final (YES-side). Book: YES 5/6, depth at limit —, vol24h 2,657, OI 28,413.

Reject reason: deep-favorite band: NO ask 95c (≥90c). Four consecutive monthly rungs (JUN01, JUL01, AUG01, SEP01) settled NO; Driscoll's Sep 1 resignation and Tillis's Sep 2 call to replace him drew "I think he's doing a fantastic job" from Trump.

Rationale: Pre-market 5% → final 5%. rules_secondary requires an actual departure date and vacating the role within the window. NO at 95c is a ≥90c reject regardless of conviction.

Precedents consulted: KXHEGSETHOUT-26APR-JUL01 (NO), KXHEGSETHOUT-26APR-JUN01 (NO), KXHEGSETHOUT-26APR-SEP01 (NO, verified this run)

Confirmed human Ebola case in India before Oct 1, 2026?

KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-IND · cluster ebola-2026-spread · closes 2026-10-01T03:59:00Z

Prob: 3% pre-market → 3% final (YES-side). Book: YES 6/7, depth at limit —, vol24h 621, OI 2,488.

Reject reason: deep-favorite band: NO ask 94c (≥90c). Only two exported cases (Germany via US citizen in May; France Jun 24) from a 6,686-case DRC Bundibugyo outbreak; Uganda declared over Jul 28. No precedent rows for the series.

Rationale: Pre-market 3% → final 3%. rules_secondary requires confirmation inside India (imported cases count). Cold derivation: no precedent store coverage. Band reject.

Precedents consulted: none in store (cold derivation)