# Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit (v4, archetype-targeted)

Date: 2026-09-09
Source: https://kalshi-audits.pages.dev/2026-09-09-kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit-v4

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# Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit (v4, archetype-targeted)

Report date 2026-09-09 · Keel v4 · Category focus: Politics (any Tier-1 series in scope) · Horizon 45 days · Capital $2,500
Picks1Rejects logged63Capital deployed$111.474.5% of capitalCash held$2,388.5395.5% — cash is a position

## Summary

An efficient week in the v4 universe. Of 120 allowlisted series, only 63 open markets close inside the 45-day horizon (the big Tier-1 series — administration departures, impeachment, SAVE Act, bills-become-law — all close Dec 31 or later), and the Stage-0 cuts left seven candidates in three clusters. One pick survives: **NO on Anthropic confirming its IPO before Oct 17** at 71¢, a Tier-2 corporate-event leg whose thesis is a dated primary-source schedule (Reuters, Sep 4) plus the SEC's 15-day public-filing rule. The Sept-16 FOMC dissent-count ladder is fairly priced against my distribution and is logged as three no-edge rejects. The California Jewish-ancestry bill market is the most instructive reject of the run: it looked like a 68¢ mispricing until the sister Anaheim Angels market revealed that this resolver treats "enacted" as the statute's _effective date_, not the governor's signature.

Resolver ruling surfaced this run (KXLOCALLAW, California): AB 2512 was signed and chaptered on Aug 27, 2026, yet KXLOCALLAW-CAAANG-26OCT01 ("enacted before Oct 1") was not settled YES; it traded 99¢ for eleven days and then collapsed to 1–2¢ on Sep 8 on 47k contracts, dragging KXLOCALLAW-CAJEWISH-26OCT01 from 92–98¢ to 3–12¢ the same morning. California statutes passed in a regular session take effect Jan 1 of the following year, and the series' enactment definition requires "binding law" and "satisfaction of any required waiting periods." Treat every KXLOCALLAW rung dated before a state's effective date as a structural NO regardless of signature. (Not written to the precedent store because neither market has settled yet; the reject rows carry the note.)

## Stage 0 — Universe and mechanical cuts

| Step | Count | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Series in targets.json | 120 | 76 Tier-1, 44 Tier-2, no Tier-3; min OI 5,000 |
| Open markets closing ≤ 45 days | 63 | 117 series queried live; the large Tier-1 series close Dec 31, 2026 or later |
| Cut: volume24h < 500 (live) | 36 | zero-volume books hid phantom edge in the resolved record |
| Cut: YES ask ≤ 5¢ or YES bid ≥ 95¢ | 19 | deep favorites / tails — includes Hegseth, US-Iran, BOJ/ECB rungs, Anthropic OCT01 |
| Cut: spread > 5¢ | 1 | Ebola–Tanzania |
| Cut: Mentions market / close after expiration / inside 3h halt | 0 | none in this slate |
| **Stage-2 candidates** | **7** | Anthropic OCT10/OCT17, FOMC dissents 0/4/5, CA Jewish-ancestry bill, AGI-announcement — plus 3 near-misses researched for the record (Anthropic OCT24, FOMC-3, CA Angels) |

## Pick

corporate-eventTier 2BUY NOMEDIUM convictioncluster: anthropic-ipo-timing

### Anthropic confirms an IPO (S-1 effective, priced, or exchange ticker assigned) before Oct 17, 2026?

KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT17 · closes 2026-10-17T03:59:00Z · expected expiration 2027-04-01T14:00Z (close precedes expiration — passes the close-after-expiration rule)

**Thesis.** Reuters (Sep 4) moved Anthropic's public S-1 to late September and the roadshow to mid-October at the earliest; the SEC 15-day rule plus a roadshow puts pricing after Oct 17, so YES at 29-30c is stale post-headline residue.

**Prob: 90% pre-market → 86% final** (NO side), blended toward a 1,150-contract/day book that carries a 7,740-contract resting YES bid at 28¢. Limit **71¢** (NO ask; 533 contracts resting at that level, 7,740 more at 72¢). Edge 15¢ · EV 21% for the record.

**Rules.** Primary: "If Anthropic confirms an IPO before Oct 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes." Secondary (live, no dated clarifications appended): confirmed if (1) the SEC declares the S-1 effective OR (2) the IPO is priced OR (3) a securities exchange has assigned a ticker; resolves immediately on any of them.

**Diligence (primary sources).** EDGAR full-text and company searches on Sep 9, 2026 return no Anthropic S-1 or S-1/A (only third-party SPV funds named "Anthropic"). Anthropic's own Jun 1, 2026 release described a _confidential_ draft S-1 with no share count or price. Reuters (Sep 4, 2026, via Investing.com/CNBC): the public prospectus "had been expected … as early as next week … now that is not expected until late September"; Anthropic "is expected to begin marketing its initial public offering in mid-October at the earliest and complete the listing days before the U.S. midterm elections" (Nov 3), pending a $15bn revolving credit facility. Under the SEC's rules for confidential filers the public S-1 must be on file at least 15 days before the roadshow; the SpaceX precedent ran 22 days from public S-1 to pricing. A late-September public filing therefore puts the earliest pricing around Oct 20; the Oct 17 03:59Z cutoff sits inside that window. Cross-venue: Polymarket prices "Anthropic shares trading by Oct 15" at 7% and "by Oct 31" at 59%.

**Precedents consulted.** `KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26JUL01` resolved NO — the Jun 1 confidential-S-1 announcement was none of the three triggers (store lesson: "treat 'filed' and 'confirmed' as separated by months of process"). `KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26JUN01` resolved NO — "officially announce" is mechanical, not journalistic. `KXIPO-26-SPACEX`: Kalshi did NOT resolve on the public S-1's proposed symbol "SPCX" and settled only after effectiveness/pricing on Jun 11 (store lesson: a proposed symbol is not "a securities exchange has assigned a ticker"). Verified this run against the live rules text: the three-trigger language is unchanged.

**Resolver profile and deductions.** Resolver: Kalshi, mechanical three-trigger test, historically strict (3-for-3 in the store). Deductions: −4 timeline re-acceleration (credit facility closes fast, public S-1 lands mid-September, one-week roadshow); −3 ticker-assignment ambiguity (a Nasdaq pre-listing announcement could be argued as "assigned" — the SpaceX ruling cuts the other way); −3 single-outlet sourcing on the Sep 4 timeline. Total 10 pts (< 15 → keep).

**Cleanest tail risk.** Anthropic publishes the S-1 within days and compresses the roadshow to price before Oct 16 — a total reversal of the reported plan.

**Entry context.** YES 29 / 30 · NO ask 71 (533) then 72 (7,740) · vol24h 1,150 · OI 2,799 · 14-day path: YES 69¢ (Sep 5) → 35¢ (Sep 6) → 29¢ (Sep 7) → 29–30¢ since; the move is fully explained by the Sep 4 report and is outside the 48h window.

**Sizing.** MEDIUM cap 7% = $175. The live Keel leg `KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT01` NO @84 (75 contracts, $63) shares this cluster, so the cluster budget for a new leg is $112 → **157 contracts @ 71¢ = $111.47**. Depth cap 1/3 × 533 = 177 ≥ 157. Note the Anchor strategy also opened NO @71 on this same leg on Sep 8; that is a separate ledger, but members running both should not double up.

## Portfolio

### Position sizes and limits

| Ticker | Side | Limit | Contracts | Cost = max loss | Max win | % capital |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| `KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT17` | NO | 71¢ | 157 | $111.47 | $45.53 | 4.5% |
| Cash reserve | — | — | — | $2,388.53 | — | 95.5% |

### EV for the record (sizing is EV-agnostic)

| Ticker | Model prob (side) | Price | Edge | EV / contract | EV $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| `KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT17` | 86% | 71¢ | 15¢ | 15.0¢ | $23.55 |

### Cluster table (one leg per cluster)

| Cluster | Deployed leg | Runner-ups logged | Cluster cost incl. legacy |
|---|---|---|---|
| anthropic-ipo-timing | OCT17 NO @71 | OCT10 NO (deep-favorite), OCT24 NO (band/liquidity), OCT01 NO (already live) | $174.47 (≤ $175 MEDIUM cap) |
| fomc-sep-dissent-count | — (no edge) | exactly-0 NO, exactly-3 YES, exactly-4 NO, exactly-5 NO | $0 |
| ca-sept-signature-effective-date | — (deep-favorite) | CAJEWISH NO @93, CAAANG NO @99 | $0 |

### Conviction exposure

| Conviction | Positions | Cost | Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | 0 | $0 | 15% / pick |
| MEDIUM | 1 | $111.47 | 7% / pick (cluster-adjusted) |
| LOW | 0 (logged rejects only) | $0 | never deploys |

### Risk profile

- Worst case: the single leg loses in full → −$111.47 (−4.5% of capital). Correlated legacy loss only if Anthropic prices before Oct 1, which requires a public S-1 that does not exist as of Sep 9.
- Reserve held: 95.5% (rule: ≥ 10%).
- No continuous-number theses, no Mentions markets, no ≥ 90¢ or < 40¢ entries.

### Execution notes

- Post a resting NO limit at 71¢; 533 contracts sit at that level, so 157 fills without walking the book. Do not chase above 72¢ — at 73¢ the edge net of the 10-pt deductions is under 3¢.
- Re-check EDGAR daily for an Anthropic S-1 becoming public; a public filing before Sep 24 would cut the NO probability to roughly 65–70% and is the exit trigger.
- The market settles immediately on any trigger; the realised holding period may be shorter than Oct 17 if pricing lands after Oct 17 (then it runs to close).

## Rejects — Stage 2 (side formed)

| Ticker | Archetype | Side | Price | Model prob | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| `KXLOCALLAW-CAJEWISH-26OCT01`Will California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity? | confirmation/enact | NO | 93¢ | 95% | deep-favorite band: NO ask 93c >= 90c. SB 1387 passed 62-0 / 38-0 on Aug 31 and sits with Newsom until Sep 30, but this resolver reads 'enacted' as binding/effective law: the sister market KXLOCALLAW-CAAANG (AB 2512 signed & chaptered Aug 27) was NOT settled YES and crashed 99c->1c on Sep 8; a California statute signed in September takes effect Jan 1, 2027, so 'before Oct 1' is a structural NO. YES at 12c is a <40c tail. |
| `KXLOCALLAW-CAAANG-26OCT01`Will the Anaheim Angels naming bill become law? | confirmation/enact | NO | 99¢ | 98% | Stage-0: YES ask 2c <= 5c; NO at 99c is deep-favorite band. Bill signed Aug 27 (Ch. 142) yet market unresolved and trading 1-2c after Sep 8 repricing on 47k contracts — resolver treats enactment as the Jan 1, 2027 effective date. |
| `KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-26SEP-4`How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting? — 4 | multi-news-other | NO | 84¢ | 83% | inside spread: P(exactly 4 dissents) 13% pre-market -> 17% final (Waller's Sep 3 hold lean raises the odds of a hold with the Hammack/Kashkari/Logan bloc plus one more), so NO at 84c has no edge vs the 16/17 book; expires in 7 days into a specialist-dense ladder. |
| `KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-26SEP-0`How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting? — 0 | multi-news-other | NO | 88¢ | 91% | no edge after slippage: P(unanimous vote) 7% pre-market -> 9% final (a 12-0 hike is conceivable if Sep 11 CPI runs hot; a 12-0 hold is near-impossible with three standing hawk dissenters); NO at 88c vs 91% is 3c, inside the slippage allowance, in the thin-favorite band, against a 42.8k-OI book. |
| `KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-26SEP-3`How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting? — 3 | multi-news-other | YES | 33¢ | 37% | Stage-0 liquidity floor (vol24h 232 < 500) and <40c tail band; model 37% vs 33c ask is 4c of shadow edge on the modal hold-with-three-hawks outcome. Cluster runner-up. |
| `KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-26SEP-5`How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting? — 5 | multi-news-other | NO | 95¢ | 96% | deep-favorite band: NO ask 95c; five dissents needs an unprecedented split. Runner-up. |
| `KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT10`When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? — Before Oct 10, 2026 | corporate-event | NO | 91¢ | 97% | cluster runner-up; deep-favorite band (NO ask 91c). Same thesis as the OCT17 leg with 6c less payoff. |
| `KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT24`When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? — Before Oct 24, 2026 | corporate-event | NO | 46¢ | 60% | cluster runner-up; 40-59c band requires HIGH conviction AND a Tier-1 process archetype (this is Tier-2 corporate-event); vol24h 226 < 500. Model P(priced before Oct 24) ~40% vs 54/55 book — Polymarket has 'trading by Oct 31' at 59%. |
| `KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT01`When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? — Before Oct 1, 2026 | corporate-event | NO | 96¢ | 99% | already an active Keel pick (NO @84 from Aug 18); now deep-favorite band. Counted against this cluster's 7% cap. |
| `KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE-26JAN-OCT`Crypto market-structure bill becomes law before Oct 1, 2026? | confirmation/enact | NO | 100¢ | 99% | already an active pick ($EXISTING_PICKS); YES 0/2c, NO 98-100c deep-favorite. |
| `KXAGICO-COMP-26Q3`Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) befor | multi-news-other | NO | 94¢ | 97% | deep-favorite band (NO ask 94c) and outside the process archetypes ('multi-news-other'); explicit-statement rule is clear but max win 6% of risk. |
| `KXHEGSETHOUT-26AUG-26OCT01`Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Oct 1, 2026? — Before Oct 1, 2026 | multi-news-other | NO | 96¢ | 95% | Stage-0: YES ask 5c; NO 95-96c deep-favorite band. Precedent: KXHEGSETHOUT rungs 0-for-2 YES in store. |
| `KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26OCT`Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? — Before Oct 1, 2026 | scheduled-process | NO | 98¢ | 98% | Stage-0: YES ask 3c; NO 97-98c deep-favorite band. |
| `KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26OCT01`Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, | corporate-event | NO | 96¢ | 97% | Stage-0: YES ask 5c; NO 95-96c deep-favorite band. |
| `KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-H25`Will the Bank of Japan Hike 25bps at the September 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting? — Hike 25 | scheduled-process | YES | 99¢ | 90% | Stage-0: YES bid 97c >= 95c; telegraphed 25bp hike fully priced. |
| `KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-H25P`Will the Bank of Japan Hike more than 25bps at the September 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting? | scheduled-process | NO | 100¢ | 99% | Stage-0: YES ask 1c; NO at 99-100c. |
| `KXCBDECISIONEU-26SEP10-H25`Will the European Central Bank Hike 1-25bps at the September ECB Governing Council monetar | multi-news-other | YES | 100¢ | 95% | Stage-0: YES bid 99c >= 95c; decision Sep 10. |
| `KXCBDECISIONEU-26SEP10-HOLD`Will the European Central Bank Maintain current rate at the September ECB Governing Counci | multi-news-other | NO | 100¢ | 97% | Stage-0: YES ask 1c; NO at 99-100c; decision Sep 10. |
| `KXCBDECISIONEU-26SEP10-H25P`Will the European Central Bank Hike more than 25bps at the September ECB Governing Council | multi-news-other | NO | 100¢ | 99% | Stage-0: YES ask 1c; NO at 99-100c. |
| `KXCBDECISIONEU-26SEP10-C25`Will the European Central Bank Cut 1-25bps at the September ECB Governing Council monetary | multi-news-other | NO | 100¢ | 99% | Stage-0: YES ask 1c; NO at 99-100c. |
| `KXMAMDANIEO-26SEP12-T0`Will Mamdani sign above 0 executive orders between Sep 6, 2026 and Sep 12, 2026? — Above 0 | confirmation/enact | YES | 99¢ | 98% | Stage-0: YES bid 98c >= 95c. |
| `KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-TANZ`Will a human case of Ebola disease in Tanzania be reported before Oct 1, 2026? — Tanzania | multi-news-other | NO | 97¢ | 96% | Stage-0: spread 6c > 5c; NO at 97c deep-favorite band. |

### Notes on the three researched reject clusters

**FOMC dissent count (Sep 16).** Voters: Warsh, Powell, Jefferson, Barr, Bowman, Cook, Waller, Williams, Hammack, Kashkari, Logan, Paulson (federalreserve.gov). July was a 9-3 hold with Hammack/Kashkari/Logan preferring a hike; Warsh at Jackson Hole said the Fed "might have more work to do"; Waller (Sep 3) said he "would be inclined" to hold if the Sep 11 CPI cools and Williams is also willing to hold. CME FedWatch went from 65% hike to a coin flip. My distribution: hold ~50% (three hawks dissent ~55%, four ~25%), hike ~50% (dovish dissents from Waller/Paulson/Cook likely: 0 ~12%, 1 ~25%, 2 ~28%, 3 ~20%). Totals P(0)=7–9%, P(1)=14%, P(2)=20%, P(3)=37%, P(4)=17%, P(5)=5% vs the book 12/12/11/32/16/5. Nothing clears the ask of its side by more than slippage. Precedent written back: the July ladder priced "exactly 3" at 10–15¢ into a 9-3 vote.

**California SB 1387.** Passed 62-0 and 38-0 on Aug 31; enrolled Sep 4; Newsom has until Sep 30, and inaction enacts. Opposition is limited (Jewish Voice for Peace chapters, Beyt Tikkun, Workers Circle). On the world question I would put signature-or-inaction near 85%. But the resolver question is different: the sister Angels market shows enactment is read as the Jan 1, 2027 effective date, making both rungs structural NOs. NO at 93¢ is deep-favorite band; YES at 12¢ is a tail. Logged, not deployed.

**AGI announcement before Oct 1.** Rules are explicit (must state it has "achieved AGI"), but NO costs 94¢ and the archetype is not a process archetype. Reject.

## Rejects — Stage 0 mechanical cuts (no side formed)

| Ticker | Archetype | Close | YES ask | Cut |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| `KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26OCT01` | departure/ouster | 2026-10-01 | 4¢ | Stage-0: vol24h 305 < 500; YES ask <= 5c |
| `KXKASHOUT-26JUL-26OCT01` | departure/ouster | 2026-10-01 | 3¢ | Stage-0: vol24h 24 < 500; YES ask <= 5c |
| `KXALITOANNOUNCERETIRE-26JUN-OCT01` | departure/ouster | 2026-10-01 | 2¢ | Stage-0: vol24h 0 < 500; YES ask <= 5c |
| `KXARRESTNETANYAHU-28JAN01-26OCT01` | legal-action | 2026-10-01 | 1¢ | Stage-0: vol24h 0 < 500; YES ask <= 5c |
| `KXHOUSEADJOURN-26-26SEP26` | departure/ouster | 2026-09-26 | 98¢ | Stage-0: vol24h 0 < 500 |
| `KXHOUSEADJOURN-26-26SEP18` | departure/ouster | 2026-09-18 | 95¢ | Stage-0: vol24h 0 < 500 |
| `KXHOUSEADJOURN-26-26OCT02` | departure/ouster | 2026-10-02 | 100¢ | Stage-0: vol24h 0 < 500; YES bid >= 95c |
| `KXZELENSKYYOUT-26OCT01` | departure/ouster | 2026-10-01 | 2¢ | Stage-0: vol24h 0 < 500; YES ask <= 5c |
| `KXPROMISEACT-26AUG-26OCT03` | confirmation/enact | 2026-10-03 | 1¢ | Stage-0: vol24h 0 < 500; YES ask <= 5c |
| `KXGALLEGOOUT-26OCT01` | departure/ouster | 2026-10-01 | 2¢ | Stage-0: vol24h 0 < 500; YES ask <= 5c |
| `KXRECNCH-27-OCT01` | confirmation/enact | 2026-10-01 | 1¢ | Stage-0: vol24h 25 < 500; YES ask <= 5c |
| `KXNUMAPPROP-26OCT01-AL5` | confirmation/enact | 2026-10-01 | 3¢ | Stage-0: vol24h 0 < 500; YES ask <= 5c |
| `KXNUMAPPROP-26OCT01-AL3` | confirmation/enact | 2026-10-01 | 7¢ | Stage-0: vol24h 0 < 500; spread 6c > 5c |
| `KXNUMAPPROP-26OCT01-AL1` | confirmation/enact | 2026-10-01 | 5¢ | Stage-0: vol24h 0 < 500; YES ask <= 5c |
| `KXLEAVEMILLS-26NOV03-26OCT01` | departure/ouster | 2026-10-01 | 7¢ | Stage-0: vol24h 0 < 500 |
| `KXMARTINDNCOUT-26MAY-26OCT01` | departure/ouster | 2026-10-01 | 8¢ | Stage-0: vol24h 0 < 500 |
| `KXLUXONOUT-26AUG-26OCT01` | departure/ouster | 2026-10-01 | 3¢ | Stage-0: vol24h 0 < 500; YES ask <= 5c |
| `KXMCDONALDCONF-26JUN17-OCT01` | confirmation/enact | 2026-10-01 | 2¢ | Stage-0: vol24h 0 < 500; YES ask <= 5c |
| `KXIPOOPENAI-26OCT01` | corporate-event | 2026-10-01 | 1¢ | Stage-0: vol24h 0 < 500; YES ask <= 5c |
| `KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-ZAMB` | multi-news-other | 2026-10-01 | 12¢ | Stage-0: vol24h 0 < 500; spread 8c > 5c |
| `KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-USA` | multi-news-other | 2026-10-01 | 9¢ | Stage-0: vol24h 0 < 500 |
| `KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-SUD` | multi-news-other | 2026-10-01 | 12¢ | Stage-0: vol24h 0 < 500; spread 7c > 5c |
| `KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-SOM` | multi-news-other | 2026-10-01 | 10¢ | Stage-0: vol24h 0 < 500; spread 8c > 5c |
| `KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-RWA` | multi-news-other | 2026-10-01 | 16¢ | Stage-0: vol24h 0 < 500; spread 8c > 5c |
| `KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-RCON` | multi-news-other | 2026-10-01 | 12¢ | Stage-0: vol24h 0 < 500; spread 7c > 5c |
| `KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-NIGE` | multi-news-other | 2026-10-01 | 12¢ | Stage-0: vol24h 0 < 500; spread 7c > 5c |
| `KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-KEN` | multi-news-other | 2026-10-01 | 14¢ | Stage-0: vol24h 0 < 500; spread 8c > 5c |
| `KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-IND` | multi-news-other | 2026-10-01 | 13¢ | Stage-0: vol24h 272 < 500 |
| `KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-ETHI` | multi-news-other | 2026-10-01 | 12¢ | Stage-0: vol24h 0 < 500; spread 7c > 5c |
| `KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-CHI` | multi-news-other | 2026-10-01 | 6¢ | Stage-0: vol24h 0 < 500; spread 6c > 5c |
| `KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-CAR` | multi-news-other | 2026-10-01 | 13¢ | Stage-0: vol24h 0 < 500; spread 8c > 5c |
| `KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-CANA` | multi-news-other | 2026-10-01 | 10¢ | Stage-0: vol24h 0 < 500 |
| `KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-BUR` | multi-news-other | 2026-10-01 | 13¢ | Stage-0: vol24h 0 < 500; spread 8c > 5c |
| `KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-ANG` | multi-news-other | 2026-10-01 | 10¢ | Stage-0: vol24h 0 < 500; spread 7c > 5c |
| `KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-HOLD` | scheduled-process | 2026-09-18 | 2¢ | Stage-0: vol24h 125 < 500; YES ask <= 5c |
| `KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-C25P` | scheduled-process | 2026-09-18 | 1¢ | Stage-0: vol24h 0 < 500; YES ask <= 5c |
| `KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-C25` | scheduled-process | 2026-09-18 | 1¢ | Stage-0: vol24h 0 < 500; YES ask <= 5c |
| `KXIPOSTARLINK-26OCT01` | corporate-event | 2026-10-01 | 1¢ | Stage-0: vol24h 0 < 500; YES ask <= 5c |
| `KXCBDECISIONEU-26SEP10-C25P` | multi-news-other | 2026-09-10 | 1¢ | Stage-0: vol24h 0 < 500; YES ask <= 5c |
| `KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-26SEP-2` | multi-news-other | 2026-09-16 | 12¢ | Stage-0: vol24h 0 < 500 |
| `KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-26SEP-1` | multi-news-other | 2026-09-16 | 13¢ | Stage-0: vol24h 270 < 500 |

## Precedent writeback (settled markets only)

`KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26SEP01` corporate-event
Through the Sep 1, 2026 03:59Z cutoff Anthropic had made no public IPO filing: EDGAR full-text and company searches on Sep 9, 2026 return no Anthropic S-1/S-1A (only third-party 'Anthropic'-named SPV funds), so none of the three triggers (S-1 effectiveness, pricing, exchange ticker) could have occurred. Kalshi settled NO at 13:50Z on Sep 1. Reuters (Sep 4) then reported the public prospectus had slipped from the week of Sep 7 to late September, with marketing in mid-October at the earliest and a listing days before the Nov 3 midterms, pending a $15bn revolving credit facility.

**Lesson:** Clock this ladder off the PUBLIC S-1 date: the SEC's 15-day public-filing-before-roadshow rule plus a roadshow means pricing is >= ~3 weeks after the public filing, so any rung whose cutoff sits inside 'public S-1 date + 3 weeks' is a mechanical NO, and reported slippage of the public filing pushes every near rung down together.

**Edge notes:** The Sep 4 Reuters exclusive repriced the OCT17 rung from 69c to 29c across Sep 5-7 (1.1k+ contracts), but the residual 29-30c YES on Sep 9 still sat far above Polymarket's 7% for 'trading by Oct 15' — the rung six days later (OCT24) traded 54-58c vs Polymarket's 59% for 'by Oct 31'. Post-headline residue on the near rung, not the far one, was the dislocation.

`KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-26JUL-3` multi-news-other
The July 28-29, 2026 FOMC held at 3.50-3.75% on a 9-3 vote; Cleveland's Beth Hammack, Minneapolis' Neel Kashkari and Dallas' Lorie Logan each preferred a 25bp hike. The 'exactly 3' strike settled YES at the 18:00Z Jul 29 expiration. The same three presidents had dissented (against the statement's easing bias) at the April 28-29 meeting, where Stephen Miran added a dovish cut dissent for a 4-dissent total; June was 12-0.

**Lesson:** Dissent count is a discrete, whip-countable institutional outcome, not a continuous number: an established dissenting bloc that has already voted together (Hammack/Kashkari/Logan) is the base case for the next hold, and the ladder's modal strike should be priced off that roster rather than off the rate decision alone.

**Edge notes:** Kalshi candlesticks show the 3-strike traded 13-15c for the final eleven days and 10-11c on Jul 28-29 (7.7k and 4.5k contracts) before settling at 100, while the 0-strike held 21-35c into the decision — the crowd priced a repeat of the April/June split as a tail even though the same three hawks had dissented three months earlier and hike odds were ~36%.

`KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-26JUL-0` multi-news-other
Settled NO on Jul 29, 2026: the FOMC's hold carried three hawkish dissents (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan), so the unanimous-vote strike failed. It was the ladder's most-traded leg (182k contracts lifetime) and closed at 17c.

**Lesson:** A unanimous vote is the tail, not the base case, whenever the prior meeting produced named dissenters who have not publicly changed position — treat 'exactly 0' as a NO-side carry leg and check the current voter roster (2026: Warsh, Powell, Jefferson, Barr, Bowman, Cook, Waller, Williams, Hammack, Kashkari, Logan, Paulson) before pricing it.

**Edge notes:** The 0-strike traded 32-35c on Jul 18-22 and still 21-27c on Jul 27-29 with 8-16k contracts a day; NO at 65-79c was the ladder's cleanest carry and paid in full.

## Method notes

- Probability was committed before opening any orderbook or price history (pre-market numbers are shown on each card and reject).
- Public API: bare-cent fields are null; all quotes read from `*_dollars`/`*_fp`. Price history from the candlesticks endpoint. Orderbook payload key is `orderbook_fp`.
- Precedent store: 154 rows through Jul 29, 2026; rows used are cited on the pick. KXLOCALLAW and KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT had no rows — cold derivation, with three rows written back.

## Sources

- Reuters via Investing.com, Sep 4, 2026 — "Anthropic IPO launch shifts toward mid-October, sources say"; CNBC, Sep 5, 2026.
- SEC EDGAR full-text search and company browse, Sep 9, 2026 (no Anthropic S-1).
- Anthropic, Jun 1, 2026 — "Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC".
- Polymarket, "Anthropic IPO by __?", Sep 9, 2026.
- Federal Reserve — FOMC membership page; FOMC statement Jul 29, 2026 (via CNBC); Wolf Street, Apr 29, 2026 (April dissenters).
- PBS/AP, Sep 3, 2026 — Waller on September; CNBC Aug 28 and Forbes Aug 31 — FedWatch odds after Jackson Hole.
- California Legislature (leginfo) — SB 1387 status (enrolled Sep 4, 2026); AB 2512 status (chaptered Aug 27, 2026, Ch. 142); J. The Jewish News of Northern California, Sep 1; JTA, Sep 1; ABC/AP, Aug 31.
- Kalshi public API — markets, orderbooks, trades and candlesticks for every ticker named above.

Keel v4 · generated 2026-09-09. Not investment advice.