All four positions: EXIT. Every pick tripped capital_free (side-mid ≥95¢) and every thesis re-checked as intact — these are wins, not reversals. But all four close Oct 1 (23 days out), leaving 2–4¢ to earn against three-plus weeks of locked capital and identified tail risks (a 702 rider in the September CR window; a loose "ticker assigned" reading if Anthropic's late-September public S-1 names a symbol). Per desk policy, the capital comes home.
702 lapsed June 15 and has stayed lapsed; the Brennan Center tracker shows no legislative movement since July, and FISC certifications valid to March 2027 mute any urgency. But at 98¢ there are ≤2¢ left against the one tail we priced at entry — a 702 rider on the September CR, which is exactly the window we're now in. Liquidity note: 98¢ bid is 5 contracts; real fill ~97¢ (500 there).
No public S-1 on EDGAR as of today; the public flip has slipped to late September, the roadshow isn't expected before mid-October, and Reuters-sourced reporting (Sep 5) has the listing pushed to mid-October — none of the three YES triggers (S-1 effective / priced / exchange ticker) plausibly fires by Oct 1. The residual tail: a loose "ticker assigned" read if the late-September S-1 discloses an intended symbol — SpaceX precedent bounds it, but the timing now lands inside our window. My 96% equals the 96¢ price: edge gone, exit into 694 contracts at 96¢.
The Sept 15 Senate vote is only cloture on the motion to proceed (60 votes needed, Democratic ethics/illicit-finance demands unresolved per CNBC, Sep 1), and Galaxy Research now puts full-2026 passage at ~10% — Senate passage + House concurrence + signature by Sep 30 is a rounding error. Nothing left to earn at 98¢ over 23 days against the must-pass-rider tail. Liquidity: 5 contracts at 98¢, ~79k at 97¢ — real fill 97¢.
The strait remains effectively closed — 6 transits on Aug 30 vs a ~85/day baseline per IMF PortWatch-derived trackers — no ceasefire since the July collapse, and the only live diplomacy is an Iran–Oman limited safe-corridor track. A 7-day MA above 60 by Oct 1 needs an immediate grand bargain plus a full traffic ramp that cannot fit in 23 days. Still: 2¢ left over three-plus weeks — the capital comes home. Deep book (6.7k contracts at 98¢).