# Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit (Anchor, NO-side structural) — 2026-09-08

Date: 2026-09-08
Source: https://kalshi-audits.pages.dev/2026-09-08-kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit-anchor

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# Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit (Anchor, NO-side structural)

Run date 2026-09-08 · strategy=Anchor · audit_version=anchor · horizon 45d · capital $2,500 · universe: Stage-0 allowlist (117 series), 62 open markets in window

## Summary

**1 pick, 61 logged rejects, $171 max deployed (6.8% of capital), 93.2% cash.**

The 45-day window over the allowlist produced 62 open markets. The mechanical cuts were brutal and correct: 50 markets are penny books or dead volume (most Tier-1 departure/legal series trade at 0–3¢ YES — the NO side is a ≥95¢ deep favorite with no edge left), the ECB cluster is inside 7 days, and the Banxico/Ebola books fail spread or volume floors. Exactly two markets survived to Stage 2, both strikes on the same event: KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE (Oct 17 and Oct 24). The Oct 17 leg becomes the run's single pick — NO at ~69¢ against a mechanical resolution bar the calendar can't reach on the reported schedule. The Oct 24 leg is a below-band reject. Zero-to-three picks is the expected Anchor outcome; this is a one-pick week.

## Pick 1 — NO · Anthropic IPO confirmed before Oct 17

BUY NO @ 71¢ limit
mechanism: calendar-impossibility
conviction: medium
KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT17

“When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?” — Before Oct 17, 2026 · closes 2026-10-17 03:59Z · archetype: corporate-event · cluster: anthropic-ipo-confirm

YES price31 / 33¢
NO entry (signal)69¢
Prob (YES) pre→final12% → 18%
Edge+11¢
Contracts241
Max cost$171.11

### YES condition sentence

For YES to pay, **the SEC must declare Anthropic's Form S-1 effective, OR the IPO must be priced, OR a securities exchange must assign it a ticker**, by Oct 17, 2026, resolved by Kalshi against those three mechanical triggers (rules_secondary, verbatim). A public filing does not count; a confidential filing does not count; “sources say October” does not count.

### The calendar case

- **No vehicle inside the strike.** No public S-1 exists on EDGAR as of Sep 8, 2026 (verified directly against the SEC company search this run). The only filed document is the _confidential_ draft S-1, submitted Jun 1, 2026 (Anthropic press release).
- **The freshest primary-adjacent reporting puts every step after the strike.** Reuters (via CNBC, Sep 5, 2026): the public flip has slipped to _late September_, the investor roadshow to _mid-October at the earliest_, and the listing to late October — “just days before the November midterm elections,” contingent on a pending $15B credit facility.
- **A statutory clock sits between flip and pricing.** Under the JOBS Act, a confidential submission must be publicly filed at least 15 days before the roadshow. Flip in late September ⇒ roadshow no earlier than ~Oct 10–15 ⇒ pricing (where effectiveness and ticker assignment historically land) in the Oct 20+ window. For YES before Oct 17, Anthropic must flip within ~10 days of today _and_ compress the roadshow — two accelerations against the reported schedule.

### Precedents consulted

> KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26JUN01 and -26JUL01 both resolved **NO**: “only S-1 effectiveness, a priced offering, or an assigned ticker count — private-company IPO gossip, banker mandates, and funding rounds carry zero resolution weight,” and the confidential-filing headline in June actually made YES _cheaper_ (130k contracts traded it down to 3¢). KXIPO-26-SPACEX resolved YES with all three triggers landing together in pricing week (Jun 11–12), confirming the triggers fire late and together, not at filing. KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26SEP01 finalized NO on Sep 1 (verified via API this run; new precedent row written).

### Resolver profile & risk pricing

Resolver: Kalshi against three objective, publicly observable triggers (EDGAR effectiveness notice, pricing press release, exchange ticker assignment). Precedent shows a strict mechanical reading across four settled instances. Priced risks: **−3 pts** for the ticker-assignment clause firing early (an exchange certifying the listing during the roadshow, before pricing — did not happen early in the SpaceX precedent); **−2 pts** for schedule-reporting error (Reuters could be wrong about the slip). Total deductions 5 pts, inside the 15-pt gate, already reflected in the 18% final.

### The tail

Cleanest way NO loses: Anthropic files its public S-1 this week or next (a new discrete event — checkable daily on EDGAR) and runs a compressed roadshow that prices by Oct 16. That is an acceleration chain contradicting the Sep 5 reporting, not a continuation — the current trend (each report has pushed the schedule _later_) helps this pick. Priced in at 18%: the market itself opened this strike at 77¢ on Sep 4 and traded it down to 28–33¢ after the Reuters slip report, so the residual 31–33¢ is mostly early-flip hope, not information we lack.

### Entry context & 48h check

Book at signal: YES 31 bid (53) / 33 ask (150); NO crossable at 69¢×53, 70¢×250, 71¢×422 — 725 contracts at or below the 71¢ limit. Vol24h 659 (above the 500 floor, not specialist-dense), OI 2,157. History: opened 77¢ Sep 4 → 23–35¢ after the Sep 5 Reuters report → 28–33¢ since; today ticked 28→33 on ~550 contracts (post-Labor-Day flip anticipation). No adverse move we can't explain; slippage from 69¢ signal to 71¢ limit is 2¢ (≤3¢ gate).

## Position sizing & limits

| Ticker | Side | Limit | Contracts | Max cost | % of capital | Cap binding |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT17 | NO | 71¢ | 241 | $171.11 | 6.8% | depth (725/3=241), under the $250 conviction cap |
| Total deployed |  |  |  | $171.11 | 6.8% | cash reserve 93.2% ($2,328.89) |

Flat sizing per Anchor: 10% cap ($250) in the 60–84¢ core band; the visible-depth cap (⅓ of 725 contracts at ≤71¢) binds first. Work the order passively at 69–70¢ before crossing to 71¢.

## EV for the record

| Ticker | Entry | Model P(win) | EV/contract | EV (position) | ev_pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT17 | NO 71¢ | 82% | +11.0¢ | +$26.51 | 15.5% |

## Cluster table

| Cluster | Legs seen | Deployed leg | Runners-up / notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| anthropic-ipo-confirm | 4 strikes (Oct 1/10/17/24) | 26OCT17 NO | 26OCT24 rejected (below band, NO 40–45¢); 26OCT10 volume-cut (78); 26OCT01 is an existing live pick (NO, now 1–2¢ YES — effectively settled, so incremental cluster correlation is minimal) |
| ecb-sep-decision | 5 | — | all inside 7d |
| boj-sep-decision | 5 | — | no playable band (HOLD 0/2¢, H25 97/98¢) |
| banxico-sep-decision | 7 | — | zero 24h volume, 9¢ spreads |
| ebola-country-oct | 16 | — | volume floor (series-wide vol24 < 700 across 16 books) |
| house-preelection-recess | 3 | — | volume floor + deep-favorite band |

## Risk profile

- **Concentration:** the single new leg shares an event with one existing live pick (Oct 1 NO), but that leg is 98–99¢ won with 22 days of pure publication-lag risk left; joint downside requires an IPO confirmation before Oct 1, which is off the table on any reported schedule.
- **Max loss:** $171.11 (6.8% of capital) if the IPO prices / goes effective / gets a ticker before Oct 17.
- **Kill signal:** a public Anthropic S-1 appearing on EDGAR before ~Sep 21 reopens a pre-Oct-17 pricing path — that is the exit trigger, watchable daily and free.
- **Cash:** 93.2% reserve. An efficient week; the record says this is a position, not a failure.

## Execution notes

- Rest NO bids at 69–70¢ first (the 24–27¢ YES-side resting stack suggests sellers appear intraday); cross to 71¢ only for remainder. Do not chase past 71¢ — at 72¢ the edge is 10¢ against a 7,656-contract wall of 28¢ YES bids that will slow any further NO fill improvement.
- Market _can close early_ if the event occurs — a fill is final; no exit liquidity is assumed after a surprise flip + accelerated calendar. Size is set to hold to resolution.
- Re-check EDGAR (company search: Anthropic, Form S-1) each trading day; the thesis dies loudly, not quietly.

## Rejected — full log (61)

Fixed-vocabulary reasons where applicable. Only the Anthropic Oct 24 leg reached Stage 2; mechanical cuts carry the default NO side and the NO cost at signal.

| Ticker | Title | Side | Price | P(YES) | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT24 | When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? | NO | 45¢ | 45 | below band: NO costs 40-45c (<60c floor); pricing distribution centers Oct 21-28 per Reuters schedule, no playable Anchor band; also cluster runner-up to the Oct 17 leg |
| KXAGICO-COMP-26Q3 | Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial Ge | NO | 91¢ | — | volume24h 9 < 500 |
| KXALITOANNOUNCERETIRE-26JUN-OCT01 | Will Samuel Alito announce their departure as Supreme Court | NO | 99¢ | — | volume24h 0 < 500; deep-favorite band |
| KXARRESTNETANYAHU-28JAN01-26OCT01 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested before Oct 1, 2026? | NO | 100¢ | — | volume24h 0 < 500; deep-favorite band |
| KXCBDECISIONEU-26SEP10-C25P | Will the European Central Bank Cut more than 25bps at the Se | NO | 100¢ | — | inside 7d; volume24h 0 < 500; deep-favorite band |
| KXCBDECISIONEU-26SEP10-C25 | Will the European Central Bank Cut 1-25bps at the September | NO | 100¢ | — | inside 7d; volume24h 0 < 500; deep-favorite band |
| KXCBDECISIONEU-26SEP10-HOLD | Will the European Central Bank Maintain current rate at the | NO | 100¢ | — | inside 7d; deep-favorite band |
| KXCBDECISIONEU-26SEP10-H25 | Will the European Central Bank Hike 1-25bps at the September | NO | 1¢ | — | inside 7d; volume24h 116 < 500; deep-favorite band |
| KXCBDECISIONEU-26SEP10-H25P | Will the European Central Bank Hike more than 25bps at the S | NO | 100¢ | — | inside 7d; deep-favorite band |
| KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-C25P | Will the Bank of Japan Cut more than 25bps at the September | NO | 100¢ | — | volume24h 0 < 500; deep-favorite band |
| KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-C25 | Will the Bank of Japan Cut 25bps at the September 2026 Monet | NO | 100¢ | — | volume24h 0 < 500; deep-favorite band |
| KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-HOLD | Will the Bank of Japan Maintain current rate at the Septembe | NO | 100¢ | — | deep-favorite band |
| KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-H25 | Will the Bank of Japan Hike 25bps at the September 2026 Mone | NO | 3¢ | — | deep-favorite band |
| KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-H25P | Will the Bank of Japan Hike more than 25bps at the September | NO | 100¢ | — | deep-favorite band |
| KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-C50P | Will the Bank of Mexico Cut more than 50bps at the September | NO | 100¢ | — | volume24h 0 < 500; deep-favorite band |
| KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-C50 | Will the Bank of Mexico Cut 50bps at the September Governing | NO | 100¢ | — | volume24h 0 < 500; inside spread |
| KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-C25 | Will the Bank of Mexico Cut 25bps at the September Governing | NO | 99¢ | — | volume24h 0 < 500 |
| KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-HOLD | Will the Bank of Mexico Maintain current rate at the Septemb | NO | 9¢ | — | volume24h 0 < 500; inside spread |
| KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-H25P | Will the Bank of Mexico Hike 25bps at the September Governin | NO | 100¢ | — | volume24h 0 < 500; deep-favorite band |
| KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-H50 | Will the Bank of Mexico Hike 50bps at the September Governin | NO | 100¢ | — | volume24h 0 < 500; deep-favorite band |
| KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-H50P | Will the Bank of Mexico Hike more than 50bps at the Septembe | NO | 100¢ | — | volume24h 0 < 500; deep-favorite band |
| KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26OCT01 | Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreemen | NO | 97¢ | — | deep-favorite band |
| KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-USA | Will a human case of Ebola disease in United States be repor | NO | 96¢ | — | volume24h 0 < 500 |
| KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-CHI | Will a human case of Ebola disease in China be reported befo | NO | 98¢ | — | volume24h 0 < 500 |
| KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-IND | Will a human case of Ebola disease in India be reported befo | NO | 90¢ | — | volume24h 26 < 500 |
| KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-SUD | Will a human case of Ebola disease in South Sudan be reporte | NO | 95¢ | — | volume24h 1 < 500; inside spread |
| KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-KEN | Will a human case of Ebola disease in Kenya be reported befo | NO | 94¢ | — | volume24h 0 < 500; inside spread |
| KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-RWA | Will a human case of Ebola disease in Rwanda be reported bef | NO | 92¢ | — | volume24h 0 < 500; inside spread |
| KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-BUR | Will a human case of Ebola disease in Burundi be reported be | NO | 95¢ | — | volume24h 0 < 500; inside spread |
| KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-RCON | Will a human case of Ebola disease in Republic of the Congo | NO | 93¢ | — | volume24h 0 < 500 |
| KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-CANA | Will a human case of Ebola disease in Canada be reported bef | NO | 94¢ | — | volume24h 50 < 500 |
| KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-ETHI | Will a human case of Ebola disease in Ethiopia be reported b | NO | 95¢ | — | volume24h 0 < 500; inside spread |
| KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-NIGE | Will a human case of Ebola disease in Nigeria be reported be | NO | 95¢ | — | volume24h 0 < 500; inside spread |
| KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-SOM | Will a human case of Ebola disease in Somalia be reported be | NO | 98¢ | — | volume24h 0 < 500; inside spread |
| KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-ANG | Will a human case of Ebola disease in Angola be reported bef | NO | 97¢ | — | volume24h 0 < 500; inside spread |
| KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-CAR | Will a human case of Ebola disease in Central African Republ | NO | 95¢ | — | volume24h 0 < 500; inside spread |
| KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-TANZ | Will a human case of Ebola disease in Tanzania be reported b | NO | 92¢ | — | volume24h 0 < 500; inside spread |
| KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-ZAMB | Will a human case of Ebola disease in Zambia be reported bef | NO | 96¢ | — | volume24h 0 < 500; inside spread |
| KXGALLEGOOUT-26OCT01 | Will Ruben Gallego be out as Senator before Oct 1, 2026? | NO | 99¢ | — | volume24h 0 < 500; deep-favorite band |
| KXHEGSETHOUT-26AUG-26OCT01 | Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Oct | NO | 98¢ | — | deep-favorite band |
| KXHOUSEADJOURN-26-26SEP18 | Will it be reported by the U.S. House of Representatives tha | NO | 9¢ | — | volume24h 100 < 500 |
| KXHOUSEADJOURN-26-26SEP26 | Will it be reported by the U.S. House of Representatives tha | NO | 8¢ | — | volume24h 0 < 500; inside spread |
| KXHOUSEADJOURN-26-26OCT02 | Will it be reported by the U.S. House of Representatives tha | NO | 2¢ | — | volume24h 0 < 500; deep-favorite band |
| KXIPOANDURIL-26OCT01 | When will Anduril IPO? | NO | 99¢ | — | volume24h 0 < 500; deep-favorite band |
| KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT01 | When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? | NO | 99¢ | — | already an active pick; deep-favorite band |
| KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT10 | When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? | NO | 93¢ | — | volume24h 78 < 500 |
| KXIPOOPENAI-26OCT01 | When will OpenAI IPO? | NO | 100¢ | — | volume24h 0 < 500; deep-favorite band |
| KXIPOSTARLINK-26OCT01 | When will Starlink IPO? | NO | 100¢ | — | volume24h 0 < 500; deep-favorite band |
| KXKASHOUT-26JUL-26OCT01 | Will Kash Patel be out as FBI Director before Oct 1, 2026? | NO | 99¢ | — | volume24h 51 < 500; deep-favorite band |
| KXLEAVEMILLS-26NOV03-26OCT01 | Will Cory Mills be out as Congressman before Oct 1, 2026? | NO | 98¢ | — | volume24h 0 < 500 |
| KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26OCT01 | Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of | NO | 99¢ | — | volume24h 0 < 500; deep-favorite band |
| KXLOCALLAW-CAAANG-26OCT01 | Will the Anaheim Angels naming bill become law? | NO | 98¢ | — | deep-favorite band |
| KXLOCALLAW-KCROYALS-26OCT01 | Will the Royals stadium funding deal become law in Kansas Ci | NO | 100¢ | — | market closed/inactive; volume24h 0 < 500; inside spread |
| KXLOCALLAW-CAJEWISH-26OCT01 | Will California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity? | NO | 99¢ | — | deep-favorite band |
| KXLUXONOUT-26AUG-26OCT01 | Will Christopher Luxon announce their departure as Prime Min | NO | 100¢ | — | volume24h 0 < 500; deep-favorite band |
| KXMARTINDNCOUT-26MAY-26OCT01 | Will Ken Martin be out as chair of the Democratic National C | NO | 96¢ | — | volume24h 0 < 500 |
| KXMCDONALDCONF-26JUN17-OCT01 | Will James McDonald be confirmed as U.S. Attorney for the So | NO | 100¢ | — | volume24h 0 < 500; deep-favorite band |
| KXPROMISEACT-26AUG-26OCT03 | Will legislation that requires the Social Security Advisory | NO | 100¢ | — | volume24h 0 < 500; deep-favorite band |
| KXRECNCH-27-OCT01 | Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before January 01, | NO | 100¢ | — | volume24h 0 < 500; deep-favorite band |
| KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26OCT | Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? | NO | 99¢ | — | deep-favorite band |
| KXZELENSKYYOUT-26OCT01 | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy leave President of Ukraine before O | NO | 99¢ | — | volume24h 0 < 500; deep-favorite band |

Generated by the Anchor audit · sources: Kalshi public API (books, candlesticks, rules), kalmari DB (trading_markets, resolution_precedents, signals), SEC EDGAR, Anthropic press release (Jun 1), Reuters via CNBC (Sep 5). Precedent writeback: 1 row (KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26SEP01).