Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit (Anchor, NO-side structural)
Report date 2026-09-08 · strategy=Anchor · audit_version=anchor · horizon 45 days (close by 2026-10-23 18:30Z) · capital $2,500 · run kalshi-anchor-politics-c77j6
Summary
0 picks · 60 logged rejects · $0 allocated, $2,500 (100%) held in cash.
The Stage-0 allowlist (120 series, 910 open markets) contains 60 markets that close inside the 45-day horizon. Every one of them fails a mechanical Stage-0 cut before diligence begins. No candidate reached Stage 1 or Stage 2, so no probability was formed and no thesis was written. Under Anchor this is a normal, correct result: cash is the position this week.
| Stage-0 cut | Markets | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Live volume24h < 500 | 48 | Most are departure rungs and central-bank ladder legs with zero trades in 24h. |
| YES ask ≤ 5¢ | 9 | Liquid, but the NO side would cost 96–99¢: deep-favorite band regardless. |
| YES bid ≥ 95¢ | 1 | BoJ 25bp hike leg at 97/98. |
| Already an active pick | 2 | Anthropic IPO Oct 1 and Oct 17 rungs (existing NO positions). |
| Inside 7d (secondary) | 10 | ECB Sep 10 legs; already cut on price or volume. |
Methodology (Anchor)
- Universe is the Stage-0 allowlist only: 117 series (Tier 1: 70, Tier 2: 47, Tier 3: 0). Category focus Politics is advisory; every listed series was scanned.
- Mechanical cuts: live volume24h < 500; spread > 5¢; YES bid ≥ 95¢; YES ask ≤ 5¢; existing picks; Mentions markets; close_time > 1h after expected_expiration; expiration inside 7 days; continuous-number markets.
- Side rule: NO by default; YES only on already-happened or process-in-motion. Entry band 60–84¢ core, 85–89¢ half size, ≥90¢ and <60¢ rejected. Flat 10% sizing, one leg per cluster, ≥10% reserve.
- Prices read from the public API
*_dollarsfields at 2026-09-08 ~18:30Z. No candlesticks or orderbook depth were fetched because no market survived Stage 0.
Picks
None. No market in the allowlist closes within 45 days with a tradeable book outside the deep-favorite band. The nearest structural NO candidates (Hegseth out before Oct 1, US–Iran deal before Oct 1, Tesla–SpaceX merger before Oct 1, Anaheim Angels naming bill) all price the NO side at 96–99¢, where the record shows no edge over the market and the max win is ≤4% of capital at risk.
Portfolio, sizing and risk
| Line | Cost | Max loss | EV (record) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | $2,500 (100%) | $0 | — |
Position-size, limit, EV-for-the-record and cluster tables are empty this run. Execution notes: none. Existing live picks (5 NO legs) are unchanged by this report.
Reject log — all 60 in-horizon markets
Side and price shown are what Anchor would have taken (NO by default; price = 100 − YES bid). No probability was formed for Stage-0 rejects.
| Tier | Market | Archetype | YES bid/ask | Vol24h | Close | Expires | Side @ ¢ | Reject reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T1 | KXLOCALLAW-CAAANG-26OCT01Will the Anaheim Angels naming bill become law? — Yes | confirmation/enact | 2/3 | 26306 | 2026-10-01 | 2026-10-08 | NO @ 98 | Stage-0: YES ask 3.0¢ ≤ 5¢; NO side would cost 98¢ → deep-favorite band |
| T1 | KXLOCALLAW-CAJEWISH-26OCT01Will California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity? — Yes | confirmation/enact | 1/4 | 6710 | 2026-10-01 | 2026-10-08 | NO @ 99 | Stage-0: YES ask 4.0¢ ≤ 5¢; NO side would cost 99¢ → deep-favorite band |
| T1 | KXHOUSEADJOURN-26-26SEP18Will it be reported by the U.S. House of Representatives that the U.S. — Before Sep 18, 2026 | departure/ouster | 91/95 | 100 | 2026-09-18 | 2026-11-11 | NO @ 9 | Stage-0: live volume24h 100 < 500; NO side at 9¢ would also be below band |
| T1 | KXKASHOUT-26JUL-26OCT01Will Kash Patel be out as FBI Director before Oct 1, 2026? — Before Oct 1, 2026 | departure/ouster | 1/3 | 51 | 2026-10-01 | 2027-01-08 | NO @ 99 | Stage-0: live volume24h 51 < 500; NO side at 99¢ would also be deep-favorite band |
| T1 | KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26OCT01Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Feder — Before Oct 1, 2026 | departure/ouster | 1/2 | 0 | 2026-10-01 | 2027-01-01 | NO @ 99 | Stage-0: live volume24h 0 < 500; NO side at 99¢ would also be deep-favorite band |
| T1 | KXALITOANNOUNCERETIRE-26JUN-OCT01Will Samuel Alito announce their departure as Supreme Court justice be — Before Oct 1, 2026 | departure/ouster | 1/2 | 0 | 2026-10-01 | 2027-01-08 | NO @ 99 | Stage-0: live volume24h 0 < 500; NO side at 99¢ would also be deep-favorite band |
| T1 | KXARRESTNETANYAHU-28JAN01-26OCT01Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested before Oct 1, 2026? — Before Oct 1, 2026 | legal-action | 0/1 | 0 | 2026-10-01 | 2028-01-01 | NO @ 100 | Stage-0: live volume24h 0 < 500; NO side at 100¢ would also be deep-favorite band |
| T1 | KXHOUSEADJOURN-26-26SEP26Will it be reported by the U.S. House of Representatives that the U.S. — Before Sep 26, 2026 | departure/ouster | 92/98 | 0 | 2026-09-26 | 2026-11-11 | NO @ 8 | Stage-0: live volume24h 0 < 500; NO side at 8¢ would also be below band |
| T1 | KXHOUSEADJOURN-26-26OCT02Will it be reported by the U.S. House of Representatives that the U.S. — Before Oct 2, 2026 | departure/ouster | 98/100 | 0 | 2026-10-02 | 2026-11-11 | NO @ 2 | Stage-0: live volume24h 0 < 500; NO side at 2¢ would also be below band |
| T1 | KXZELENSKYYOUT-26OCT01Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy leave President of Ukraine before Oct 1, 2026 — Before Oct 1, 2026 | departure/ouster | 0/2 | 0 | 2026-10-01 | 2026-10-01 | NO @ 100 | Stage-0: live volume24h 0 < 500; NO side at 100¢ would also be deep-favorite band |
| T1 | KXPROMISEACT-26AUG-26OCT03Will legislation that requires the Social Security Advisory Board to d — Before Oct 3, 2026 | confirmation/enact | 0/1 | 0 | 2026-10-03 | 2027-01-01 | NO @ 100 | Stage-0: live volume24h 0 < 500; NO side at 100¢ would also be deep-favorite band |
| T1 | KXGALLEGOOUT-26OCT01Will Ruben Gallego be out as Senator before Oct 1, 2026? — Before Oct 1, 2026 | departure/ouster | 1/2 | 0 | 2026-10-01 | 2027-01-08 | NO @ 99 | Stage-0: live volume24h 0 < 500; NO side at 99¢ would also be deep-favorite band |
| T1 | KXRECNCH-27-OCT01Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before January 01, 2027? — Before Oct 1, 2026 | confirmation/enact | 0/2 | 0 | 2026-10-01 | 2027-01-02 | NO @ 100 | Stage-0: live volume24h 0 < 500; NO side at 100¢ would also be deep-favorite band |
| T1 | KXLEAVEMILLS-26NOV03-26OCT01Will Cory Mills be out as Congressman before Oct 1, 2026? — Before Oct 1, 2026 | departure/ouster | 2/7 | 0 | 2026-10-01 | 2026-11-10 | NO @ 98 | Stage-0: live volume24h 0 < 500; NO side at 98¢ would also be deep-favorite band |
| T1 | KXMARTINDNCOUT-26MAY-26OCT01Will Ken Martin be out as chair of the Democratic National Committee b — Before Oct 1, 2026 | departure/ouster | 4/8 | 0 | 2026-10-01 | 2027-01-08 | NO @ 96 | Stage-0: live volume24h 0 < 500; NO side at 96¢ would also be deep-favorite band |
| T1 | KXLUXONOUT-26AUG-26OCT01Will Christopher Luxon announce their departure as Prime Minister of N — Before Oct 1, 2026 | departure/ouster | 0/3 | 0 | 2026-10-01 | 2027-01-08 | NO @ 100 | Stage-0: live volume24h 0 < 500; NO side at 100¢ would also be deep-favorite band |
| T1 | KXMCDONALDCONF-26JUN17-OCT01Will James McDonald be confirmed as U.S. Attorney for the Southern Dis — Before Oct 1, 2026 | confirmation/enact | 0/2 | 0 | 2026-10-01 | 2027-01-01 | NO @ 100 | Stage-0: live volume24h 0 < 500; NO side at 100¢ would also be deep-favorite band |
| T2 | KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26OCTWill the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? — Before Oct 1, 2026 | scheduled-process | 1/2 | 43531 | 2026-10-01 | 2027-01-01 | NO @ 99 | Stage-0: YES ask 2.0¢ ≤ 5¢; NO side would cost 99¢ → deep-favorite band |
| T2 | KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26OCT01Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesl — Before Oct 1, 2026 | corporate-event | 3/4 | 24414 | 2026-10-01 | 2027-06-01 | NO @ 97 | Stage-0: YES ask 4.0¢ ≤ 5¢; NO side would cost 97¢ → deep-favorite band |
| T2 | KXCBDECISIONEU-26SEP10-H25PWill the European Central Bank Hike more than 25bps at the September E — Hike more than 25bps | multi-news-other | 0/1 | 15057 | 2026-09-10 | 2026-09-10 | NO @ 100 | Stage-0: YES ask 1.0¢ ≤ 5¢; NO side would cost 100¢ → deep-favorite band; also inside 7d (expires in 1.7d) |
| T2 | KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT01When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? — Before Oct 1, 2026 | corporate-event | 1/2 | 13502 | 2026-10-01 | 2027-04-01 | NO @ 99 | already an active pick |
| T2 | KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-H25Will the Bank of Japan Hike 25bps at the September 2026 Monetary Polic — Hike 25bps | scheduled-process | 97/98 | 3590 | 2026-09-18 | 2026-09-18 | NO @ 3 | Stage-0: YES bid 97¢ ≥ 95¢ → deep-favorite band |
| T2 | KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-H25PWill the Bank of Japan Hike more than 25bps at the September 2026 Mone — Hike more than 25bps | scheduled-process | 0/1 | 3338 | 2026-09-18 | 2026-09-18 | NO @ 100 | Stage-0: YES ask 1.0¢ ≤ 5¢; NO side would cost 100¢ → deep-favorite band |
| T2 | KXHEGSETHOUT-26AUG-26OCT01Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Oct 1, 2026? — Before Oct 1, 2026 | multi-news-other | 2/3 | 2386 | 2026-10-01 | 2026-10-01 | NO @ 98 | Stage-0: YES ask 3.0¢ ≤ 5¢; NO side would cost 98¢ → deep-favorite band |
| T2 | KXCBDECISIONEU-26SEP10-HOLDWill the European Central Bank Maintain current rate at the September — Maintain current rate | multi-news-other | 0/2 | 918 | 2026-09-10 | 2026-09-10 | NO @ 100 | Stage-0: YES ask 2.0¢ ≤ 5¢; NO side would cost 100¢ → deep-favorite band; also inside 7d (expires in 1.7d) |
| T2 | KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-HOLDWill the Bank of Japan Maintain current rate at the September 2026 Mon — Maintain current rate | scheduled-process | 0/2 | 747 | 2026-09-18 | 2026-09-18 | NO @ 100 | Stage-0: YES ask 2.0¢ ≤ 5¢; NO side would cost 100¢ → deep-favorite band |
| T2 | KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT17When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? — Before Oct 17, 2026 | corporate-event | 31/33 | 659 | 2026-10-17 | 2027-04-01 | NO @ 69 | already an active pick |
| T2 | KXCBDECISIONEU-26SEP10-H25Will the European Central Bank Hike 1-25bps at the September ECB Gover — Hike 1-25bps | multi-news-other | 99/100 | 116 | 2026-09-10 | 2026-09-10 | NO @ 1 | Stage-0: live volume24h 116 < 500; also inside 7d (expires in 1.7d); NO side at 1¢ would also be below band |
| T2 | KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT10When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? — Before Oct 10, 2026 | corporate-event | 7/9 | 78 | 2026-10-10 | 2027-04-01 | NO @ 93 | Stage-0: live volume24h 78 < 500; NO side at 93¢ would also be deep-favorite band |
| T2 | KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-CANAWill a human case of Ebola disease in Canada be reported before Oct 1, — Canada | multi-news-other | 6/10 | 50 | 2026-10-01 | 2026-10-01 | NO @ 94 | Stage-0: live volume24h 50 < 500; NO side at 94¢ would also be deep-favorite band |
| T2 | KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-INDWill a human case of Ebola disease in India be reported before Oct 1, — India | multi-news-other | 10/14 | 26 | 2026-10-01 | 2026-10-01 | NO @ 90 | Stage-0: live volume24h 26 < 500; NO side at 90¢ would also be deep-favorite band |
| T2 | KXAGICO-COMP-26Q3Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Inte — Before Oct 1, 2026 | multi-news-other | 9/12 | 9 | 2026-10-01 | 2031-01-01 | NO @ 91 | Stage-0: live volume24h 9 < 500; NO side at 91¢ would also be deep-favorite band |
| T2 | KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-SUDWill a human case of Ebola disease in South Sudan be reported before O — South Sudan | multi-news-other | 5/12 | 1 | 2026-10-01 | 2026-10-01 | NO @ 95 | Stage-0: live volume24h 1 < 500; NO side at 95¢ would also be deep-favorite band |
| T2 | KXIPOOPENAI-26OCT01When will OpenAI IPO? — Before Oct 1, 2026 | corporate-event | 0/2 | 0 | 2026-10-01 | 2027-06-01 | NO @ 100 | Stage-0: live volume24h 0 < 500; NO side at 100¢ would also be deep-favorite band |
| T2 | KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-ZAMBWill a human case of Ebola disease in Zambia be reported before Oct 1, — Zambia | multi-news-other | 4/12 | 0 | 2026-10-01 | 2026-10-01 | NO @ 96 | Stage-0: live volume24h 0 < 500; NO side at 96¢ would also be deep-favorite band |
| T2 | KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-USAWill a human case of Ebola disease in United States be reported before — United States | multi-news-other | 4/9 | 0 | 2026-10-01 | 2026-10-01 | NO @ 96 | Stage-0: live volume24h 0 < 500; NO side at 96¢ would also be deep-favorite band |
| T2 | KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-TANZWill a human case of Ebola disease in Tanzania be reported before Oct — Tanzania | multi-news-other | 8/16 | 0 | 2026-10-01 | 2026-10-01 | NO @ 92 | Stage-0: live volume24h 0 < 500; NO side at 92¢ would also be deep-favorite band |
| T2 | KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-SOMWill a human case of Ebola disease in Somalia be reported before Oct 1 — Somalia | multi-news-other | 2/10 | 0 | 2026-10-01 | 2026-10-01 | NO @ 98 | Stage-0: live volume24h 0 < 500; NO side at 98¢ would also be deep-favorite band |
| T2 | KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-RWAWill a human case of Ebola disease in Rwanda be reported before Oct 1, — Rwanda | multi-news-other | 8/16 | 0 | 2026-10-01 | 2026-10-01 | NO @ 92 | Stage-0: live volume24h 0 < 500; NO side at 92¢ would also be deep-favorite band |
| T2 | KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-RCONWill a human case of Ebola disease in Republic of the Congo be reporte — Republic of the Congo | multi-news-other | 7/12 | 0 | 2026-10-01 | 2026-10-01 | NO @ 93 | Stage-0: live volume24h 0 < 500; NO side at 93¢ would also be deep-favorite band |
| T2 | KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-NIGEWill a human case of Ebola disease in Nigeria be reported before Oct 1 — Nigeria | multi-news-other | 5/12 | 0 | 2026-10-01 | 2026-10-01 | NO @ 95 | Stage-0: live volume24h 0 < 500; NO side at 95¢ would also be deep-favorite band |
| T2 | KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-KENWill a human case of Ebola disease in Kenya be reported before Oct 1, — Kenya | multi-news-other | 6/14 | 0 | 2026-10-01 | 2026-10-01 | NO @ 94 | Stage-0: live volume24h 0 < 500; NO side at 94¢ would also be deep-favorite band |
| T2 | KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-ETHIWill a human case of Ebola disease in Ethiopia be reported before Oct — Ethiopia | multi-news-other | 5/12 | 0 | 2026-10-01 | 2026-10-01 | NO @ 95 | Stage-0: live volume24h 0 < 500; NO side at 95¢ would also be deep-favorite band |
| T2 | KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-CHIWill a human case of Ebola disease in China be reported before Oct 1, — China | multi-news-other | 2/6 | 0 | 2026-10-01 | 2026-10-01 | NO @ 98 | Stage-0: live volume24h 0 < 500; NO side at 98¢ would also be deep-favorite band |
| T2 | KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-CARWill a human case of Ebola disease in Central African Republic be repo — Central African Republic | multi-news-other | 5/13 | 0 | 2026-10-01 | 2026-10-01 | NO @ 95 | Stage-0: live volume24h 0 < 500; NO side at 95¢ would also be deep-favorite band |
| T2 | KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-BURWill a human case of Ebola disease in Burundi be reported before Oct 1 — Burundi | multi-news-other | 5/13 | 0 | 2026-10-01 | 2026-10-01 | NO @ 95 | Stage-0: live volume24h 0 < 500; NO side at 95¢ would also be deep-favorite band |
| T2 | KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-ANGWill a human case of Ebola disease in Angola be reported before Oct 1, — Angola | multi-news-other | 3/10 | 0 | 2026-10-01 | 2026-10-01 | NO @ 97 | Stage-0: live volume24h 0 < 500; NO side at 97¢ would also be deep-favorite band |
| T2 | KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-C25PWill the Bank of Japan Cut more than 25bps at the September 2026 Monet — Cut more than 25bps | scheduled-process | 0/1 | 0 | 2026-09-18 | 2026-09-18 | NO @ 100 | Stage-0: live volume24h 0 < 500; NO side at 100¢ would also be deep-favorite band |
| T2 | KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-C25Will the Bank of Japan Cut 25bps at the September 2026 Monetary Policy — Cut 25bps | scheduled-process | 0/1 | 0 | 2026-09-18 | 2026-09-18 | NO @ 100 | Stage-0: live volume24h 0 < 500; NO side at 100¢ would also be deep-favorite band |
| T2 | KXIPOSTARLINK-26OCT01When will Starlink IPO? — Before Oct 1, 2026 | corporate-event | 0/1 | 0 | 2026-10-01 | 2027-06-01 | NO @ 100 | Stage-0: live volume24h 0 < 500; NO side at 100¢ would also be deep-favorite band |
| T2 | KXCBDECISIONEU-26SEP10-C25PWill the European Central Bank Cut more than 25bps at the September EC — Cut more than 25bps | multi-news-other | 0/1 | 0 | 2026-09-10 | 2026-09-10 | NO @ 100 | Stage-0: live volume24h 0 < 500; also inside 7d (expires in 1.7d); NO side at 100¢ would also be deep-favorite band |
| T2 | KXCBDECISIONEU-26SEP10-C25Will the European Central Bank Cut 1-25bps at the September ECB Govern — Cut 1-25bps | multi-news-other | 0/1 | 0 | 2026-09-10 | 2026-09-10 | NO @ 100 | Stage-0: live volume24h 0 < 500; also inside 7d (expires in 1.7d); NO side at 100¢ would also be deep-favorite band |
| T2 | KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-HOLDWill the Bank of Mexico Maintain current rate at the September Governi — Maintain current rate | scheduled-process | 91/100 | 0 | 2026-09-24 | 2026-09-24 | NO @ 9 | Stage-0: live volume24h 0 < 500; NO side at 9¢ would also be below band |
| T2 | KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-H50PWill the Bank of Mexico Hike more than 50bps at the September Governin — Hike more than 50bps | scheduled-process | 0/1 | 0 | 2026-09-24 | 2026-09-24 | NO @ 100 | Stage-0: live volume24h 0 < 500; NO side at 100¢ would also be deep-favorite band |
| T2 | KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-H50Will the Bank of Mexico Hike 50bps at the September Governing Board me — Hike 50bps | scheduled-process | 0/1 | 0 | 2026-09-24 | 2026-09-24 | NO @ 100 | Stage-0: live volume24h 0 < 500; NO side at 100¢ would also be deep-favorite band |
| T2 | KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-H25PWill the Bank of Mexico Hike 25bps at the September Governing Board me — Hike 25bps | scheduled-process | 0/5 | 0 | 2026-09-24 | 2026-09-24 | NO @ 100 | Stage-0: live volume24h 0 < 500; NO side at 100¢ would also be deep-favorite band |
| T2 | KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-C50PWill the Bank of Mexico Cut more than 50bps at the September Governing — Cut more than 50bps | scheduled-process | 0/3 | 0 | 2026-09-24 | 2026-09-24 | NO @ 100 | Stage-0: live volume24h 0 < 500; NO side at 100¢ would also be deep-favorite band |
| T2 | KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-C50Will the Bank of Mexico Cut 50bps at the September Governing Board mee — Cut 50bps | scheduled-process | 0/9 | 0 | 2026-09-24 | 2026-09-24 | NO @ 100 | Stage-0: live volume24h 0 < 500; NO side at 100¢ would also be deep-favorite band |
| T2 | KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-C25Will the Bank of Mexico Cut 25bps at the September Governing Board mee — Cut 25bps | scheduled-process | 1/6 | 0 | 2026-09-24 | 2026-09-24 | NO @ 99 | Stage-0: live volume24h 0 < 500; NO side at 99¢ would also be deep-favorite band |
| T2 | KXIPOANDURIL-26OCT01When will Anduril IPO? — Before Oct 1, 2026 | corporate-event | 1/3 | 0 | 2026-10-01 | 2027-06-01 | NO @ 99 | Stage-0: live volume24h 0 < 500; NO side at 99¢ would also be deep-favorite band |
Just beyond the horizon (context only, not candidates)
Liquid markets closing 45–75 days out. Listed so the next run knows what enters the window; none was researched.
| Market | YES bid/ask | Vol24h | Close |
|---|---|---|---|
KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT24When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? — Before Oct 24, 2026 | 55/60 | 2227 | 2026-10-24 (+45d) |
KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26NOV01When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? — Before Nov 1, 2026 | 71/72 | 574 | 2026-11-01 (+53d) |
KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26NOV01Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesl — Before Nov 1, 2026 | 8/10 | 5404 | 2026-11-01 (+53d) |
KXHEGSETHOUT-26AUG-26NOV01Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Nov 1, 2026? — Before Nov 1, 2026 | 11/13 | 815 | 2026-11-01 (+53d) |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26NOVWill the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? — Before Nov 1, 2026 | 3/4 | 700 | 2026-11-01 (+53d) |
KXRETIREMM-26Will Mitch McConnell resign his office early? — Before election day 2026 | 7/7 | 26832 | 2026-11-03 (+55d) |
KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT24 closes 2026-10-24T03:59Z, nine hours past the horizon; it also shares the anthropic-ipo-date cluster with two existing NO picks and its NO side (40–45¢) is below band. KXRETIREMM-26 (McConnell resigns early, NO at ~93¢) is deep-favorite band.
Precedents consulted and written back
The store holds 154 rows across 22 series; departure/ouster, confirmation/enact and scheduled-process are covered, legal-action is not. No pick leaned on a precedent this run. Four settled markets in target series were verified against primary sources and written to /tmp/out/precedents.json:
| Market | Resolution facts | Lesson |
|---|---|---|
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-GPETCOL | Resolved YES, settled 2026-08-08T00:35Z. Gustavo Petro's constitutional term as President of Colombia expired 2026-08-07 and Abelardo de la Espriella was sworn in the same day. Rules: YES if Petro 'officially announced their intention to leave' or 'actually left' before Jan 1, 2027; 'leaving office' explicitly includes 'expiration of their term without renewal'. | KXLEADERSOUT pays on the scheduled expiry of a fixed term — a leader whose term ends inside the window is a mechanical YES, and the resolver settled on the actual hand-over date (not on the June election result or the announced successor), so the tradeable edge is the timing rung, not the event. |
KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-TBLA | Resolved YES, settled 2026-08-10T19:36Z. Todd Blanche was confirmed as Attorney General on 2026-08-08 and vacated the Deputy Attorney General post; Trent McCotter became Acting Deputy AG on 2026-08-10. Rules: 'leaves as Deputy Attorney General before 2027'; rules_secondary requires 'an actual departure date by vacating the role'. | A promotion out of the named office counts as 'leaving' on KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE — the series tracks the seat, not the person's standing with the President, so a nominee for a higher post whose confirmation is scheduled inside the window is a process-in-motion YES on the departure contract. |
KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-KLEA | Resolved YES, settled 2026-08-28T17:20Z. President Trump announced on 2026-08-12 (Truth Social; reported by ABC, NBC, CNN, NPR) that Karoline Leavitt would step down as Press Secretary at the end of August. Kalshi settled on Aug 28, sixteen days after the announcement, consistent with the rules_secondary requirement of an actual departure date. | On KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE an announced end-of-month exit is not paid on the announcement — settlement waited for the last day in office — so after a credible announcement the remaining edge is only in timing rungs that straddle the effective date, and a year-end rung is already decided. |
KXLOCALLAW-KCROYALS-26OCT01 | Resolved YES, settled 2026-08-24T15:29Z. Kansas City Council passed the Crown Center ballpark ordinance package (incl. Ordinance No. 260704 and a funding agreement committing $600M in City funds, with no voter-approval condition) 11-2 on 2026-08-20 after unanimous committee approval on 2026-08-18. Rules required an enacted ordinance committing ≥$500M of City funding 'not conditioned on any subsequent voter approval' before Oct 1, 2026. | KXLOCALLAW 'become law' settles on completed enactment, which for a municipal ordinance followed the council vote by four days (mayoral signature/effectiveness) — once a committee has unanimously advanced a package with a scheduled full-council date, the remaining window is days, not weeks. |
Universe scanned
| Tier | Series | Archetype | Open mkts | Vol24 (file) | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T1 | KXLOCALLAW | confirmation/enact | 14 | 34763 | Which of these state or local laws will pass? |
| T1 | KXSAVEACT | confirmation/enact | 1 | 28199 | Will the SAVE Act become law? |
| T1 | KXRETIREMM | departure/ouster | 1 | 26832 | Mitch McConnell resigning |
| T1 | KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE | departure/ouster | 30 | 14726 | Who will leave the Trump administration |
| T1 | KXTRUMPRESIGN | departure/ouster | 1 | 8944 | Trump resign |
| T1 | KXIMPEACH | legal-action | 4 | 6362 | President impeached |
| T1 | KXTRUMPREMOVE | departure/ouster | 1 | 4274 | Trump removed |
| T1 | KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV | departure/ouster | 6 | 3062 | jerome powell leave as Fed governor |
| T1 | KXTRUMPOUT27 | departure/ouster | 3 | 2963 | Trump out as President? |
| T1 | KXARREST | legal-action | 24 | 2459 | ARRESTS |
| T1 | KXCABALLOTMEASURES | confirmation/enact | 13 | 1985 | Which California ballot measures will pass? |
| T1 | KXCAWEALTHTAX | confirmation/enact | 1 | 1981 | Will the California billionaire wealth tax initiative pass? |
| T1 | KXFEDERALCHARGE | legal-action | 41 | 1633 | Who will be charged with a federal crime |
| T1 | KXTRUMPPARDON | legal-action | 34 | 1605 | Trump pardons |
| T1 | KX250DOLLARBILL | confirmation/enact | 1 | 1268 | Trump-faced $250 bill by 2027? |
| T1 | KXLEAVEWALZ | departure/ouster | 1 | 1158 | Tim Walz out as Governor of Minnesota? |
| T1 | KXCALLIMPEACHRCONGRESS | legal-action | 3 | 1005 | Republican Congressman impeachment |
| T1 | KXBILLS | confirmation/enact | 30 | 756 | Bills become law this year? |
| T1 | KXKASHOUT | departure/ouster | 3 | 713 | Kash Patel out as FBI Director? |
| T1 | KXALITOOUT | departure/ouster | 2 | 241 | Will Justice Alito retire? |
| T1 | KXMAMDANIOUT | departure/ouster | 4 | 203 | Mamdani out as NYC Mayor |
| T1 | KXRECNCH | confirmation/enact | 4 | 144 | Reconciliation bill passes the House |
| T1 | KXHOUSEADJOURN | departure/ouster | 4 | 100 | When will the House leave for its pre-election recess? |
| T1 | KXRETIREPELOSI | departure/ouster | 1 | 90 | Will Nancy Pelosi retire |
| T1 | KXTRUMPPARDONS | legal-action | 52 | 70 | Who will Trump pardon? |
| T1 | KXSTATEBALLOTMEASURE | confirmation/enact | 110 | 68 | Which state ballot measures will pass? |
| T1 | KXMARTINDNCOUT | departure/ouster | 6 | 65 | Ken Martin out as DNC chair? |
| T1 | KXALITOANNOUNCERETIRE | departure/ouster | 3 | 57 | Alito announces retirement |
| T1 | KXIMPEACHCABINET | legal-action | 3 | 53 | Impeach a member of Trump's cabinet |
| T1 | KXNYAIBILL | confirmation/enact | 1 | 40 | Will an AI professional-impersonation bill become law in New |
| T1 | KXFLPROPERTYTAX | confirmation/enact | 1 | 31 | Will Florida’s property tax amendment pass? |
| T1 | KXCOMEYREINSTATE | legal-action | 1 | 31 | Comey indictment reinstated on appeal before 2027? |
| T1 | KXSNAPRESTRICT | confirmation/enact | 1 | 29 | Bill limiting food SNAP benefits can buy |
| T1 | KXBURNHAMOUT | departure/ouster | 5 | 15 | Andy Burnham out as Prime Minister? |
| T1 | KXMARENTCONTROL | confirmation/enact | 1 | 13 | Will the Massachusetts rent control initiative pass? |
| T1 | KXNEWSCOTUSCONF | confirmation/enact | 10 | 6 | SCOTUS confirmations |
| T1 | KXLEAVELISACOOK | departure/ouster | 1 | 3 | Will lisa cook leave office |
| T1 | KXTRUMPPARDONFAMILY | legal-action | 1 | 3 | Trump pardons his family |
| T1 | KXAPPLEUS | legal-action | 1 | 1 | Apple DOJ lawsuit |
| T1 | KXLEAVEMILLS | departure/ouster | 2 | 1 | Cory Mills leaves office before the midterms? |
| T1 | KXARRESTNETANYAHU | legal-action | 3 | 0 | Will Netanyahu be arrested? |
| T1 | KXSCOTUSRESIGN | departure/ouster | 9 | 0 | SCOTUS members resigning |
| T1 | KXUKCABOUT | departure/ouster | 23 | 0 | UK Cabinet departures |
| T1 | KXTHOMASANNOUNCERETIRE | departure/ouster | 3 | 0 | Thomas announces retirement |
| T1 | KXZELENSKYYOUT | departure/ouster | 1 | 0 | Volodymyr Zelenskyy out as President of Ukraine? |
| T1 | KXPROMISEACT | confirmation/enact | 3 | 0 | When will the PROMISE Act pass the Senate? |
| T1 | KXRDUVISITS | confirmation/enact | 6 | 0 | Raleigh-Durham International Airport passengers |
| T1 | KXICEREFORM | confirmation/enact | 6 | 0 | Which ICE reforms will become law? |
| T1 | KXNYTOAI | legal-action | 1 | 0 | New York Times wins OpenAI lawsuit |
| T1 | KXDEMSCHUMER | departure/ouster | 2 | 0 | Will a Democratic Senator call for Schumer to step down as l |
| T1 | KXLAKECONF | confirmation/enact | 2 | 0 | When will Kari Lake be confirmed as Ambassador to Jamaica? |
| T1 | KXDODRENAME | departure/ouster | 1 | 0 | Will the Department of Defense be officially renamed? |
| T1 | KXGALLEGOOUT | departure/ouster | 2 | 0 | Ruben Gallego out as Senator? |
| T1 | KXLEAVETISCH | departure/ouster | 1 | 0 | Jessica Tisch leave office |
| T1 | KXNYCDEPTSAFETY | departure/ouster | 1 | 0 | Will Mamdani establish a Department of Community Safety befo |
| T1 | KXCALIFORNIALEAVE | departure/ouster | 7 | 0 | Who will leave California before 2027? |
| T1 | KXTRUMPTHUNEOUT | departure/ouster | 1 | 0 | Will Trump call on John Thune to resign as Senate Majority l |
| T1 | KXDOJPARDONS | legal-action | 1 | 0 | DOJ pardon claim |
| T1 | KXBOUGAINVILLEIND | confirmation/enact | 2 | 0 | Will Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville independence? |
| T1 | KXLAIOUT | departure/ouster | 3 | 0 | Wiliam Lai out as President of Taiwan |
| T1 | KXTARIFFBILL | confirmation/enact | 2 | 0 | Will new tariffs become law? |
| T1 | KXREPRODUCTIVEMEASURES | confirmation/enact | 3 | 0 | Which reproductive rights measures will pass in 2026? |
| T1 | KXFARAGEOUTREFORM | departure/ouster | 1 | 0 | Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader? |
| T1 | KXFREYOUT | departure/ouster | 1 | 0 | Jacob Frey out as Mayor of Minneapolis? |
| T1 | KXLEAVEDUNN | departure/ouster | 1 | 0 | Neal Dunn leaves office before the midterms? |
| T1 | KXSANCTIONRUSSIA | confirmation/enact | 2 | 0 | Will a bill sanctioning Russia become law? |
| T1 | KXNETANYAHUPARDON | legal-action | 1 | 0 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be pardoned? |
| T1 | KXJPMCEOCHANGE | departure/ouster | 1 | 0 | Jamie Dimon leaves JPMorgan |
| T1 | KXLUXONOUT | departure/ouster | 2 | 0 | Christopher Luxon departure announced? |
| T1 | KXMCDONALDCONF | confirmation/enact | 2 | 0 | James McDonald confirmed as U.S. Attorney for the Southern D |
| T2 | KXMILLENNIUM | multi-news-other | 5 | 108389 | Millennium Prize |
| T2 | KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT | scheduled-process | 8 | 48385 | US Iran nuclear deal |
| T2 | KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER | corporate-event | 9 | 31857 | Company Merger |
| T2 | KXACQANNOUNCEEBAY | corporate-event | 1 | 18931 | Will GameStop acquire eBay? |
| T2 | KXIPOANTHROPIC | corporate-event | 10 | 18532 | Anthropic IPO |
| T2 | KXCBDECISIONEU | multi-news-other | 15 | 16092 | EU CENTRAL BANK POLICY INTEREST RATE |
| T2 | KXLEADERSOUT | multi-news-other | 34 | 14804 | World leaders out this year? |
| T2 | KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE | corporate-event | 21 | 11429 | Which companies will the US take a stake in |
| T2 | KXCBDECISIONJAPAN | scheduled-process | 15 | 7678 | Bank Of Japan policy interest rate decision |
| T2 | KXAAPLPRICEFOLD | multi-news-other | 5 | 6177 | FOLDABLE IPHONE PRICE |
| T2 | KXBTCVSGOLD | multi-news-other | 1 | 5091 | BTC vs Gold |
| T2 | KXHEGSETHOUT | multi-news-other | 3 | 4257 | Hegseth out by...? |
| T2 | KXIPO | corporate-event | 27 | 3679 | IPOs |
| T2 | KXRIEMANN | multi-news-other | 4 | 3342 | Riemann hypothesis solved |
| T2 | KXINTERSTELLAR | multi-news-other | 1 | 2348 | Interstellar object |
| T2 | KXGREENTERRITORY | corporate-event | 2 | 2185 | Greenland acquisition |
| T2 | KXEPSTEINLIST | multi-news-other | 18 | 1629 | Epstein list |
| T2 | KXMJSCHEDULE | multi-news-other | 3 | 1483 | MJ schedule |
| T2 | KXWHVISIT | multi-news-other | 25 | 1236 | White House visitors |
| T2 | KXPAHLAVIHEAD | multi-news-other | 1 | 1073 | Will Pahlavi lead Iran? |
| T2 | KXPAHLAVIVISITA | multi-news-other | 1 | 976 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran before September? |
| T2 | KXNEWROLEX | multi-news-other | 8 | 968 | X NEW CEO |
| T2 | KXTAKEOVERACQWB | corporate-event | 3 | 932 | Warner Brothers acquisition |
| T2 | KXUNSEC | multi-news-other | 11 | 846 | UN seceretary |
| T2 | KXAGICO | multi-news-other | 12 | 840 | Will any company achieve AGI before [date]? |
| T2 | KXOAIANTH | multi-news-other | 2 | 557 | Open AI vs Anthropic |
| T2 | KXEBOLACOUNTRY | multi-news-other | 32 | 446 | Which countries will report an Ebola case? |
| T2 | KXINSURRECTION | multi-news-other | 2 | 442 | Insurrection |
| T2 | KXGREENLANDPRICE | corporate-event | 8 | 415 | How much will Greenland be acquired for? |
| T2 | KXCBDECISIONCANADA | scheduled-process | 10 | 414 | Bank Of Canada policy interest rate decision |
| T2 | KXSUPERBOWLWHITEHOUSE | multi-news-other | 1 | 351 | WILL THE WINNERS OF THE PRO FOOTBALL CHAMPIONSHIP GO TO THE |
| T2 | KXIPOSTARLINK | corporate-event | 9 | 326 | When will starlink IPO |
| T2 | KXIPOOPENAI | corporate-event | 9 | 160 | When will OPENAI Announce IPO? |
| T2 | KXTARIFFCHECKS | multi-news-other | 1 | 153 | Will Americans receive tariff dividends in 2025? |
| T2 | KXZELENSKYPUTIN | multi-news-other | 2 | 145 | Zelensky and Putin in Trump's term |
| T2 | KXCANTERRITORY | corporate-event | 1 | 111 | Canadian acquisition |
| T2 | KXELONMARS | multi-news-other | 1 | 57 | Elon Mars |
| T2 | KXMILLEROUT | multi-news-other | 1 | 46 | Max Miller out? |
| T2 | KXPOPCHANGENYC | multi-news-other | 8 | 31 | Mamdani population change in NYC |
| T2 | KXDEMFIRSTCONTEST | multi-news-other | 4 | 28 | First Democratic contest 2028 |
| T2 | KXRECOGPERSONIRAN | multi-news-other | 1 | 11 | Recognize Reza Pahlavi |
| T2 | KXMTGSWITCH | multi-news-other | 6 | 11 | MTG party switch |
| T2 | KXACQUANNOUNCEPINS | multi-news-other | 6 | 5 | |
| T2 | KXUSAEXPANDTERRITORY | corporate-event | 3 | 3 | Will the US acquire new territory? |
| T2 | KXOAIHARDWARE | multi-news-other | 10 | 0 | What hardware will openAI/Jony Ive launch |
| T2 | KXCBDECISIONMEXICO | scheduled-process | 21 | 0 | Bank of Mexico interest rate decision |
| T2 | KXIPOANDURIL | corporate-event | 9 | 0 | When will anduril IPO |
Generated by the Anchor audit. Data: Kalshi public API (markets), kalmari DB query API (resolution_precedents), WebSearch primary sources cited in precedents.json.