No qualifying action has been signed — but the thesis's core props have eroded. In February Trump said he'd "never heard about" the activist draft; on Aug 11 he answered "stranger things have happened" when asked to declare an election emergency (CNN, The Hill). Democracy Docket reports the 17-page draft is now circulating "in coordination with the White House." Steve Bannon: "Just block the last week of August out. It's coming" — that is exactly the 6 days this market has left. Trump has separately denied considering it and nothing is scheduled, so NO is still ~94% — but 94 < the 97.1¢ executable exit. The last 2.9¢ doesn't pay for a live, specifically-dated tail; we would not buy NO at 97 into this week. Sell, book +7.1¢. Depth is workable: 93 @ 97.1, 200 @ 97.0, size below.
Thesis fully intact — this is a pure capital-efficiency exit. The latest IMF PortWatch print (Aug 16, via straits.live) shows 1 transit vs the ~73/day baseline; the strait has been effectively closed 177 days, the US naval blockade was reimposed in early August, and CFR says the Trump–Iran deal is unraveling. Beating a 7-day MA of 60 before Oct 1 would need an immediate grand bargain plus a ramp 2× July's 28/day ceasefire peak — NO is ~98%. But the market can't settle NO early and runs 37 more days for the last 5¢: that's dead capital plus a peace-deal tail. Sell at 95¢ (deep book: 1,846 contracts bid at 95) and recycle. Per desk rule, capital_free holds only inside a ~7-day window; this isn't close.