# Sentinel — Position Review (AM) · 2026-08-25

Date: 2026-08-25
Source: https://kalshi-audits.pages.dev/2026-08-25-kalshi-sentinel-review-am

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# Sentinel — Position Review (AM)

2026-08-25 · 1 pick triggered · 1 hold / 0 exit / 0 skip
One capital-free trigger. Thesis re-checked against primary sources; verdict intact, market resolves in 7 days — riding to settlement.

Will legislation that reauthorizes FISA Section 702 authority become law before Sep 1, 2026?
KXFISAEXTEND-26JUL-26SEP01 · closes 2026-09-01 14:00 UTC · source audit

NO
capital_free ≥95¢
thesis: intact
decision: HOLD

Entry92¢
Peak99.5¢
Now (exec.)99¢
Live YES0 / 1¢
Our prob (NO)~99%
Mkt-implied99%

**What changed since entry (Jul 20): nothing that hurts us.** Section 702 lapsed Jun 11 after
      [H.R. 9238 failed 197–218](https://www.govtrack.us/congress/votes/119-2026/h221), and no reauthorization
      vehicle has moved since — the [Brennan Center 702 tracker](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/section-702-foreign-intelligence-surveillance-act-fisa-2026-resource-page)
      (updated Jul 30) shows no enacted legislation. FISC certifications keep surveillance running to Mar 2027, draining all
      urgency, and Congress is on August recess past this market's Sep 1 close. For YES to win, a bill would need to pass both
      chambers and be signed within 7 days while members are home. Our probability on NO: ~99%.

**Why hold despite the capital-free trigger:** the desk rule exits at ≥95¢ to free locked capital — unless
      resolution is within ~7 days, and this market settles in exactly 7. Exiting at the 99¢ NO bid forfeits the last cent plus
      fees for one week of freed capital; not worth it with tail risk this thin.

Liquidity: NO exit bid is 154 @ 99¢, then 1,500 @ 98¢ — adequate, not deep. API quirk noted: the market
      object carries occurrence_datetime = Aug 15, but status is active, YES asks 1¢, and no primary source shows any bill
      becoming law; treated as an artifact.

Sentinel reviews only positions that tripped mechanical triggers; decisions are risk-reducing only (hold / exit / skip). Lineage: run 2026-07-20-kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit-sentinel, signal 617.