What changed since entry (Jul 20): nothing that hurts us. Section 702 lapsed Jun 11 after H.R. 9238 failed 197–218, and no reauthorization vehicle has moved since — the Brennan Center 702 tracker (updated Jul 30) shows no enacted legislation. FISC certifications keep surveillance running to Mar 2027, draining all urgency, and Congress is on August recess past this market's Sep 1 close. For YES to win, a bill would need to pass both chambers and be signed within 7 days while members are home. Our probability on NO: ~99%.
Why hold despite the capital-free trigger: the desk rule exits at ≥95¢ to free locked capital — unless resolution is within ~7 days, and this market settles in exactly 7. Exiting at the 99¢ NO bid forfeits the last cent plus fees for one week of freed capital; not worth it with tail risk this thin.
Liquidity: NO exit bid is 154 @ 99¢, then 1,500 @ 98¢ — adequate, not deep. API quirk noted: the market object carries occurrence_datetime = Aug 15, but status is active, YES asks 1¢, and no primary source shows any bill becoming law; treated as an artifact.
Sentinel reviews only positions that tripped mechanical triggers; decisions are risk-reducing only (hold / exit / skip). Lineage: run 2026-07-20-kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit-sentinel, signal 617.