# Sentinel — Position Review (AM) · 2026-08-24

Date: 2026-08-24
Source: https://kalshi-audits.pages.dev/2026-08-24-kalshi-sentinel-review-am

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# Sentinel — Position Review (AM)

2026-08-24 · 3 triggered picks · 2 exit / 1 hold

All three picks tripped the **capital_free** trigger (≥95¢). Both Hormuz NO signals are exits — thesis intact but only 1¢ left and settlement waits on lagged PortWatch data. The Mar-a-Lago YES holds — it settles at close in 8 days and the thesis is near-mechanical.

 Signal 718 

Hormuz 7-day avg transit calls above 60 before Sep 1 (IMF PortWatch)
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260901 · signal 718 · source audit

EXIT

NO
capital_free
thesis intact

entry 92¢
now 99¢
peak 99.5¢
my prob 99.5%
YES quotes 0 / 1¢
closes Sep 1

The thesis held completely: the strait is effectively closed (day 176), IMF PortWatch showed **1 transit on Aug 16** against the ~420 transits/week a 7dMA>60 print would need, and Tehran is now attaching tolls and confiscation threats to any passage ([straits.live tracker](https://straits.live/), [Lloyd's List Intelligence, Aug 19](https://www.lloydslistintelligence.com/resources/blog/strait-of-hormuz-brief-19-august-2026)). But at a 99¢ bid there is only 1¢ left to earn, and settlement hinges on lagged PortWatch data — the exchange lists expiration as late as Nov 30 — so the cash could sit locked weeks past the Sep 1 close. Exit into the 522k-contract bid at 99¢ and redeploy.

Liquidity: 522k contracts bid at 99¢ — execution trivial.

 Signal 734 

Hormuz 7-day avg transit calls above 60/day before Sep 1, 2026?
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260901 · signal 734 · source audit

EXIT

NO
capital_free
thesis intact

entry 92¢
now 99¢
peak 99.5¢
my prob 99.5%
YES quotes 0 / 1¢
closes Sep 1

Duplicate exposure to signal 718, same verdict. The "months to normalize" leg of the thesis proved exact — even the brief late-July uptick peaked at 84 weekly transits (7dMA ~12) before collapsing to zero as the ceasefire broke down ([Lloyd's List Intelligence](https://www.lloydslistintelligence.com/resources/blog/strait-of-hormuz-brief-19-august-2026), [straits.live](https://straits.live/)). One cent of upside against a settlement that waits on lagged PortWatch prints is not worth the lock-up. Exit at 99¢.

Same book as signal 718 — 522k contracts bid at 99¢.

 Signal 808 

Trump makes 0 trips to Mar-a-Lago in Aug 2026?
KXLAGODAYS-26AUG-0 · signal 808 · source audit

HOLD

YES
capital_free
thesis intact

entry 93¢
now 98¢
peak 99¢
my prob 99%
YES quotes 98 / 99¢
closes Sep 1

Zero Mar-a-Lago trips through Aug 23. Pool reports and published schedules put Trump at Bedminster every August weekend so far — Jul 31–Aug 2, Aug 7–9, Aug 14–16 ([Aug 14 schedule](https://conservativedailynews.com/2026/08/president-donald-trumps-schedule-for-friday-august-14-2026/), [Aug 7 schedule](https://conservativedailynews.com/2026/08/president-donald-trumps-schedule-for-friday-august-7-2026/)) — and the club is seasonally closed until fall. The Feb 22 Mar-a-Lago shooting predates the window and Trump wasn't present. The market settles at close on Sep 1 — 8 days — so selling the 98¢ bid forfeits 2¢ for no real capital release. Residual tail is a surprise Palm Beach trip in the final week; nothing on the schedule suggests one. Ride to resolution.

Liquidity: 7,492 contracts bid at 98¢ — ample if we change our mind.