All three picks tripped the capital_free trigger (≥95¢). Both Hormuz NO signals are exits — thesis intact but only 1¢ left and settlement waits on lagged PortWatch data. The Mar-a-Lago YES holds — it settles at close in 8 days and the thesis is near-mechanical.
The thesis held completely: the strait is effectively closed (day 176), IMF PortWatch showed 1 transit on Aug 16 against the ~420 transits/week a 7dMA>60 print would need, and Tehran is now attaching tolls and confiscation threats to any passage (straits.live tracker, Lloyd's List Intelligence, Aug 19). But at a 99¢ bid there is only 1¢ left to earn, and settlement hinges on lagged PortWatch data — the exchange lists expiration as late as Nov 30 — so the cash could sit locked weeks past the Sep 1 close. Exit into the 522k-contract bid at 99¢ and redeploy.
Duplicate exposure to signal 718, same verdict. The "months to normalize" leg of the thesis proved exact — even the brief late-July uptick peaked at 84 weekly transits (7dMA ~12) before collapsing to zero as the ceasefire broke down (Lloyd's List Intelligence, straits.live). One cent of upside against a settlement that waits on lagged PortWatch prints is not worth the lock-up. Exit at 99¢.
Zero Mar-a-Lago trips through Aug 23. Pool reports and published schedules put Trump at Bedminster every August weekend so far — Jul 31–Aug 2, Aug 7–9, Aug 14–16 (Aug 14 schedule, Aug 7 schedule) — and the club is seasonally closed until fall. The Feb 22 Mar-a-Lago shooting predates the window and Trump wasn't present. The market settles at close on Sep 1 — 8 days — so selling the 98¢ bid forfeits 2¢ for no real capital release. Residual tail is a surprise Palm Beach trip in the final week; nothing on the schedule suggests one. Ride to resolution.