# Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit (v4, archetype-targeted) — 2026-08-24

Date: 2026-08-24
Source: https://kalshi-audits.pages.dev/2026-08-24-kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit-v4

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Keel v4 · archetype-targeted, precedent-fed · run date 2026-08-24 · horizon 45 days (to 2026-10-08) · capital $2,500

# Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit (v4, archetype-targeted)

Universe: 120 pre-classified target series (76 Tier-1) from targets.json generated 2026-08-24 16:06 UTC · advisory category: Politics

0Picks
18Logged rejects
$0Deployed
100%Cash position
100Markets screened

Verdict: an efficient week — cash is the position. 100 open markets in target series fall inside the horizon; the mechanical cuts (live vol24h ≥ 500, spread ≤ 5¢, 5–95¢ quotes, no existing picks) left just four Stage-2 candidates, and every one failed the band or book-edge test. The v4 methodology says zero picks is acceptable and correct in a week like this; forcing a leg into a dead book or a ≥90¢ favorite is exactly the documented graveyard.

## Why the slate collapsed

The Stage-0 funnel: **120 target series → 100 open markets inside 45 days → 4 Stage-2 survivors → 0 picks**.

- **The heavyweight Tier-1 series close beyond the horizon.** KXSAVEACT (Jan 2027), KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE (Dec 2026), KXRETIREMM / KXRETIREPELOSI (Nov 3), KXFEDERALCHARGE, KXTRUMPOUT27 — all outside the 45-day window. Verified against the mirror directly.
- **What's inside the horizon is priced at the extremes.** The liquid in-horizon books — KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT (v24 38.5k, ask 1¢), KXIMPEACH (887, ask 1¢), KXKASHOUT Sep (1.3k, ask 2¢), KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER (3.5k, ask 4¢), KXGALLEGOOUT (1k, ask 4¢) — have already converged to tails. Nothing to buy under the 40–84¢ core band, nothing to fade above 5¢.
- **The mid-band prices live only in dead books.** KXGOVTFULLFUND (government funding by Sep 11/18/26 at 45–79¢ — the archetype of the record's best win) trades 0–43 contracts/day on 5–7¢ spreads. That is the exact phantom-edge cohort v4 exists to refuse: 98 of 136 historical picks entered zero-volume books and that cohort had negative edge.

## Stage-2 candidates — all rejected

### 1. KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-HOLD — BoJ holds at the Sept 17–18 meeting? scheduled-process · T2 REJECT — inside spread

**Book:** YES 12/13, v24 577, OI 10,551, closes 2026-09-18 02:29 UTC. **Side considered:** NO (i.e., BoJ moves) at 88¢ ask.

**Prob: 75% pre-market → 82% final** (for a move; p(hold) 25% → 18%, blended toward a book that is pricing well-sourced signaling). Reuters reported Aug 14 that the BoJ is "eyeing a September rate hike, faster pace of tightening" (sources story); MUFG (Aug 17) expects 1.00% → 1.25%; markets price ~80% hike. BoJ leaks of this kind have historically been reliable — but three-plus weeks out, they are not a lock.

**Precedent consulted:** KXFEDDECISION-26JUL ladder (resolved 2026-07-29) — a hawkish repricing to ~36–38% into a live meeting still resolved no-hike; "hawkish repricing into a live meeting is a fade candidate, not a signal." That cuts _against_ paying 88¢ for the move. **Band test:** a NO pick is live only if p(hold) < yes_bid = 12; my 18% is inside the market's own uncertainty. YES-hold at 13¢ is a sub-40¢ tail (0-for-8 lifetime). No bet on either side.

### 2. KXNJGOLFVISITCOUNT-26AUG-3 — Trump makes exactly 3 Bedminster trips in Aug 2026? multi-news-other · T2 REJECT — inside spread

**Book:** YES 81/83, v24 516, OI 16,512, closes 2026-08-31 14:00 UTC. **Side considered:** YES at 83¢ ask.

**Verified count = 3** (primary sources, Roll Call Factba.se calendar + press pool): (1) at Bedminster at the start of Aug — won the club championship Aug 1–2, departed Aug 2 (counts per rules_secondary: present at month start = a visit); (2) Aug 7–9, the LIV Golf New York weekend; (3) Aug 14–16 weekend. The calendar's "Aug 4 Bedminster" entry is a false positive — that was the RNC fundraiser at Trump National _Los Angeles_ (Rancho Palos Verdes). He stayed in DC the Aug 22–23 weekend (MAGA Inc. meeting at Trump National DC, Freedom 250 Grand Prix on the Mall).

**Prob: 60% pre-market → 74% final.** The whole question is a 4th trip Aug 25–31. Against: he just spent a weekend in DC; announced September travel is Ireland (Doonbeg, Irish Open) not New Jersey. For: he took 3 of 4 August weekends at Bedminster; the US Open main draw opens Aug 30 in Queens, 45 minutes away, and he attended in 2025; no announced conflicting schedule for Aug 28–30. **Band test:** 74 < 83 ask — no YES bet. The side with apparent edge (NO at 19¢ vs 26% probability) is a sub-40¢ tail — the band exists precisely because those are 0-for-8. No bet.

Cluster runner-up: KXNJGOLFVISITCOUNT-26AUG-4 (YES 16/21) also fails mechanically — v24 95 < 500 — and is a sub-40¢ entry.

### 3–4. KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-ANG / -NIGE — confirmed Ebola case in Angola / Nigeria before Oct 1? multi-news-other · T2 REJECT — deep-favorite band

**Books:** Angola YES 5/10 (v24 525, OI 1,025); Nigeria YES 8/11 (v24 500, OI 701). **Side considered:** NO at 95¢ / 92¢.

**Prob (NO): ~97% / ~96%.** The 2026 Bundibugyo outbreak is centered in DRC (4,686 confirmed cases as of Aug 12) with limited spread to Uganda (20) and one exported case in France; WHO/Lancet spillover modeling puts South Sudan as the material importation risk (~69%, and its leg trades 41/48), Burundi ~2%; Angola and Nigeria have zero confirmed or suspected cases and the outbreak zone (Ituri) is far from both. Rules are strict — confirmed cases only, in-country confirmation.

**Band test:** both NO entries are ≥90¢ — max win ≤ 9% of capital at risk, and one imported case through Lagos erases ten wins. The 94¢-lock-that-broke is the permanent memorial. Rejected on the band, not on the thesis.

## Reject log — all 18

| Ticker | Archetype | Side | Px | Prob | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-HOLD | scheduled-process | NO | 88 | 82 | Inside spread: p(hold) 18% > yes_bid 12¢; YES side sub-40¢ tail |
| KXNJGOLFVISITCOUNT-26AUG-3 | multi-news-other | YES | 83 | 74 | Inside spread: 74% final < 83¢ ask; live 4th-trip risk (US Open opens Aug 30 nearby) |
| KXNJGOLFVISITCOUNT-26AUG-4 | multi-news-other | YES | 21 | 24 | vol24h 95 < 500; sub-40¢ band; cluster runner-up |
| KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-ANG | multi-news-other | NO | 95 | 97 | Deep-favorite band (≥90¢) |
| KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-NIGE | multi-news-other | NO | 92 | 96 | Deep-favorite band (≥90¢) |
| KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26SEP | scheduled-process | mech | 1 | — | Fully converged: yes ask 1¢ ≤ 5¢ (v24 38,514) |
| KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26OCT | scheduled-process | mech | 2 | — | Fully converged: yes ask 2¢ ≤ 5¢ (v24 11,453) |
| KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26OCT01 | corporate-event | mech | 4 | — | Yes ask 4¢ ≤ 5¢ tail (v24 3,511) |
| KXGALLEGOOUT-26OCT01 | departure/ouster | mech | 4 | — | Yes ask 4¢ ≤ 5¢ tail (v24 1,000) |
| KXIMPEACH-26-SEP01 | legal-action | mech | 1 | — | Yes ask 1¢ ≤ 5¢ tail (v24 887) |
| KXKASHOUT-26APR-26SEP01 | departure/ouster | mech | 2 | — | Yes ask 2¢ ≤ 5¢ tail (v24 1,318) |
| KXALITOOUT-26SEP01 | departure/ouster | mech | 0 | — | No quotes: 0/0 book (v24 550) |
| KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26SEP01 | corporate-event | mech | 1 | — | Yes ask 1¢ ≤ 5¢ tail (v24 1,061) |
| KXNJGOLFVISITCOUNT-26AUG-2 | multi-news-other | mech | 1 | — | Count already exceeds 2: ask 1¢ (v24 1,708) |
| KXGOVTFULLFUND-26AUG-26SEP26 | confirmation/enact | mech | 79 | — | vol24h 43 < 500; mid-band price in a dead 7¢ book = phantom edge (whole cluster fails) |
| KXHEGSETHOUT-26APR-SEP01 | multi-news-other | mech | 2 | — | Already an active pick |
| KXPIRROOUT-26AUG-26SEP01 | multi-news-other | mech | 7 | — | Already an active pick |
| KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT01 | corporate-event | mech | 37 | — | Already an active pick |

## Portfolio, clusters, exposure

| Cluster | Legs surviving | Deployed |
|---|---|---|
| boj-sep2026-decision | 0 (1 rejected) | $0 |
| bedminster-aug26-count | 0 (2 rejected) | $0 |
| ebola-2026-spillover | 0 (2 rejected) | $0 |
| **Cash** | — | **$2,500 (100%)** |

**Conviction exposure:** HIGH $0 · MEDIUM $0 · cash $2,500. Reserve requirement (≥10%) trivially satisfied. The v4 record expects 40–70% cash in an efficient week; 100% is the honest print when every in-band, in-liquidity thesis fails the ask test.

**Risk profile:** no new market risk added. Existing live picks (14 tickers, all NO-side or count-locked YES) remain untouched; none were re-entered as new legs.

**Execution notes:** nothing to execute. If the Bedminster book cracks toward the low-70s ask on exactly-3 with no schedule news, or the BoJ hold leg drifts above ~20¢ without any dovish signal, those become live re-checks for the next run — but both must clear the same band and book tests then, at that day's quotes.

## Precedents consulted

- **KXFEDDECISION-26JUL ladder** (5 rows, resolved 2026-07-29): hold rung resolved YES after a ~38%-priced hike scare; lesson applied to the BoJ HOLD leg — a hawkish repricing into a live meeting is a fade candidate, not a buy signal at 88¢.
- **KXHORMUZNORM / KXHORMUZWEEKLY** (7 rows, resolved 2026-07-21): threshold-ladder and source-of-truth lessons; no in-horizon Hormuz candidates this run (existing picks stand).
- **KXNJGOLFVISITCOUNT, KXEBOLACOUNTRY:** no precedent rows — cold derivation done from live rules text and primary sources (Factba.se calendar, WH press pool, WHO DON, Lancet ID modeling).

## Method note (v4 discipline, this run)

Universe restricted to targets.json (120 series; nothing researched outside it). Live liquidity floor enforced against live vol24h, not file snapshots — it removed every mid-band "opportunity" (KXGOVTFULLFUND cluster included). Pre-market probabilities were committed after rules + news and before studying each book: BoJ move 75%, exactly-3 Bedminster 60%, no-Ebola-Angola 97%, no-Ebola-Nigeria 96% — then blended toward liquid books. The band test was run against the ask of the named side in every case; all four failed it or the entry-band rule. One leg per cluster enforced (the exactly-4 golf leg logged as cluster runner-up for shadow-tracking). No Mentions markets reached Stage 2 (KXTRUMPTHUNEOUT, a statement market, died at the volume floor before the backstop was needed).

Keel v4 · run 2026-08-24 · report: kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit-v4 · 0 picks / 18 rejects / $2,500 cash