Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit (v4, archetype-targeted)

The Stage-0 funnel: 120 target series → 100 open markets inside 45 days → 4 Stage-2 survivors → 0 picks.

• The heavyweight Tier-1 series close beyond the horizon. KXSAVEACT (Jan 2027), KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE (Dec 2026), KXRETIREMM / KXRETIREPELOSI (Nov 3), KXFEDERALCHARGE, KXTRUMPOUT27 — all outside the 45-day window. Verified against the mirror directly.
• What's inside the horizon is priced at the extremes. The liquid in-horizon books — KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT (v24 38.5k, ask 1¢), KXIMPEACH (887, ask 1¢), KXKASHOUT Sep (1.3k, ask 2¢), KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER (3.5k, ask 4¢), KXGALLEGOOUT (1k, ask 4¢) — have already converged to tails. Nothing to buy under the 40–84¢ core band, nothing to fade above 5¢.
• The mid-band prices live only in dead books. KXGOVTFULLFUND (government funding by Sep 11/18/26 at 45–79¢ — the archetype of the record's best win) trades 0–43 contracts/day on 5–7¢ spreads. That is the exact phantom-edge cohort v4 exists to refuse: 98 of 136 historical picks entered zero-volume books and that cohort had negative edge.

1. KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-HOLD — BoJ holds at the Sept 17–18 meeting? scheduled-process · T2 REJECT — inside spread

Book: YES 12/13, v24 577, OI 10,551, closes 2026-09-18 02:29 UTC. Side considered: NO (i.e., BoJ moves) at 88¢ ask.

Prob: 75% pre-market → 82% final (for a move; p(hold) 25% → 18%, blended toward a book that is pricing well-sourced signaling). Reuters reported Aug 14 that the BoJ is "eyeing a September rate hike, faster pace of tightening" (sources story); MUFG (Aug 17) expects 1.00% → 1.25%; markets price ~80% hike. BoJ leaks of this kind have historically been reliable — but three-plus weeks out, they are not a lock.

Precedent consulted: KXFEDDECISION-26JUL ladder (resolved 2026-07-29) — a hawkish repricing to ~36–38% into a live meeting still resolved no-hike; "hawkish repricing into a live meeting is a fade candidate, not a signal." That cuts against paying 88¢ for the move. Band test: a NO pick is live only if p(hold) < yes_bid = 12; my 18% is inside the market's own uncertainty. YES-hold at 13¢ is a sub-40¢ tail (0-for-8 lifetime). No bet on either side.

2. KXNJGOLFVISITCOUNT-26AUG-3 — Trump makes exactly 3 Bedminster trips in Aug 2026? multi-news-other · T2 REJECT — inside spread

Book: YES 81/83, v24 516, OI 16,512, closes 2026-08-31 14:00 UTC. Side considered: YES at 83¢ ask.

Verified count = 3 (primary sources, Roll Call Factba.se calendar + press pool): (1) at Bedminster at the start of Aug — won the club championship Aug 1–2, departed Aug 2 (counts per rules_secondary: present at month start = a visit); (2) Aug 7–9, the LIV Golf New York weekend; (3) Aug 14–16 weekend. The calendar's "Aug 4 Bedminster" entry is a false positive — that was the RNC fundraiser at Trump National Los Angeles (Rancho Palos Verdes). He stayed in DC the Aug 22–23 weekend (MAGA Inc. meeting at Trump National DC, Freedom 250 Grand Prix on the Mall).

Prob: 60% pre-market → 74% final. The whole question is a 4th trip Aug 25–31. Against: he just spent a weekend in DC; announced September travel is Ireland (Doonbeg, Irish Open) not New Jersey. For: he took 3 of 4 August weekends at Bedminster; the US Open main draw opens Aug 30 in Queens, 45 minutes away, and he attended in 2025; no announced conflicting schedule for Aug 28–30. Band test: 74 < 83 ask — no YES bet. The side with apparent edge (NO at 19¢ vs 26% probability) is a sub-40¢ tail — the band exists precisely because those are 0-for-8. No bet.

Cluster runner-up: KXNJGOLFVISITCOUNT-26AUG-4 (YES 16/21) also fails mechanically — v24 95 < 500 — and is a sub-40¢ entry.

3–4. KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-ANG / -NIGE — confirmed Ebola case in Angola / Nigeria before Oct 1? multi-news-other · T2 REJECT — deep-favorite band

Books: Angola YES 5/10 (v24 525, OI 1,025); Nigeria YES 8/11 (v24 500, OI 701). Side considered: NO at 95¢ / 92¢.

Prob (NO): ~97% / ~96%. The 2026 Bundibugyo outbreak is centered in DRC (4,686 confirmed cases as of Aug 12) with limited spread to Uganda (20) and one exported case in France; WHO/Lancet spillover modeling puts South Sudan as the material importation risk (~69%, and its leg trades 41/48), Burundi ~2%; Angola and Nigeria have zero confirmed or suspected cases and the outbreak zone (Ituri) is far from both. Rules are strict — confirmed cases only, in-country confirmation.

Band test: both NO entries are ≥90¢ — max win ≤ 9% of capital at risk, and one imported case through Lagos erases ten wins. The 94¢-lock-that-broke is the permanent memorial. Rejected on the band, not on the thesis.

Conviction exposure: HIGH $0 · MEDIUM $0 · cash $2,500. Reserve requirement (≥10%) trivially satisfied. The v4 record expects 40–70% cash in an efficient week; 100% is the honest print when every in-band, in-liquidity thesis fails the ask test.

Risk profile: no new market risk added. Existing live picks (14 tickers, all NO-side or count-locked YES) remain untouched; none were re-entered as new legs.

Execution notes: nothing to execute. If the Bedminster book cracks toward the low-70s ask on exactly-3 with no schedule news, or the BoJ hold leg drifts above ~20¢ without any dovish signal, those become live re-checks for the next run — but both must clear the same band and book tests then, at that day's quotes.

• KXFEDDECISION-26JUL ladder (5 rows, resolved 2026-07-29): hold rung resolved YES after a ~38%-priced hike scare; lesson applied to the BoJ HOLD leg — a hawkish repricing into a live meeting is a fade candidate, not a buy signal at 88¢.
• KXHORMUZNORM / KXHORMUZWEEKLY (7 rows, resolved 2026-07-21): threshold-ladder and source-of-truth lessons; no in-horizon Hormuz candidates this run (existing picks stand).
• KXNJGOLFVISITCOUNT, KXEBOLACOUNTRY: no precedent rows — cold derivation done from live rules text and primary sources (Factba.se calendar, WH press pool, WHO DON, Lancet ID modeling).