The calendar math the thesis rested on has fully closed. The Senate left for its August recess without voting on the CLARITY Act, and Thune's Aug 8 cloture filing set the first procedural vote for September 15 — two weeks after this market resolves. No bill has passed the Senate, so nothing can become law before Sep 1 regardless of the House's Aug 31 return; residual risk is resolver error only. Exit would fetch 99¢ (≈57k contracts bid at 99 — deep book), but resolution pays 100¢ in 9 days and the market can only close early if the bill becomes law. That is 1¢ of essentially risk-free carry (~41% annualized) versus giving it up into the bid, just past the ~7-day capital-free window. Knowing what we know now, we would buy NO at 99¢ today — so hold to resolution.
Same underlying position as signal #600; identical evidence and decision. The Senate is in recess with its first procedural CLARITY vote scheduled Sep 15, no Senate-passed text exists, and the House alone cannot produce a signed law — the "7+ Democrats flip within two weeks" tail named in the original rationale never materialized (the Murphy/Van Hollen/Merkley ethics-provision objections still stand). Max hold is 9 days for the final 1¢ at ~99.5% probability. Hold to resolution.