Sentinel — Position Review (AM)

Thesis is stronger than at entry. OpenAI's next model is now publicly named Astra — announced Aug 1 via solved math problems, not a launch: no date, no pricing, no model card, no ChatGPT rollout, and OpenAI has explicitly not decided whether it ships as GPT-6 at all (felloai, Yotta Labs). ~Aug 7 OpenAI paused internal Astra work after evals couldn't rule out a Critical cybersecurity capability level (felloai/Astra). Resolution requires a public release named "GPT-6 or greater" within 9 days — ~1–2%. The packet's mid-Aug dip to NO≈75.5 was the Astra rumor cycle; it has fully fizzled (the "10T-param August launch" traces to crypto aggregators, e.g. KuCoin flash). Exiting at 97 gives up ~1.5¢ EV vs settlement; close is ~9 days out — just past the ~7-day capital-free line, days not weeks. Ride to resolution.

Hegseth is still in office and still the one doing the firing — Stars and Stripes' publisher and editors were fired Aug 21–22 (CNN). But the market has fully caught up: 98.3¢ exit equals my ~98% probability he doesn't formally vacate by Sep 1 — zero edge left in the last 1.7¢. Meanwhile the abrupt-firing tail the original audit priced is livelier than at entry: a NYT report this week on Pentagon "chaos," a second Signal group-chat disclosure, aides fired over suspected leaks (Salon), and reported White House frustration (Haberman via Yahoo). Tiebreak: would not buy NO at 98.3 today — EV is flat-to-negative. Take the 6.3¢, free the capital.